NATO , an ambitious international organization.
On July 8, 1997, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Summit was held in the Municipal Assembly Building in Madrid, the Spanish capital. It was the heads of state and government of the six member states. After more than 5 hours of bargaining, it was determined that Invite Poland, Hungary, and Czech Republic to start negotiations with NATO on membership issues, and ultimately enable the three countries to officially become new members of NATO in April 1999, the 50th anniversary of the founding of NATO.
The decision of the NATO Madrid Summit marks the official launch of NATO's eastward expansion plan, which has been brewing for more than three years. The European security landscape has also begun to undergo major changes since the end of the Cold War.
The fundamental reason why NATO is eager to expand eastward is that the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. After the end of the Cold War, a huge power vacuum appeared in Eastern Europe. As the direct successor of the Soviet Union, Russia still has a huge land area and terrifying nuclear weapons . Therefore, in order to contain Russia, NATO began to make moves on the issue of advancing eastward.
Faced with NATO moving eastward and continuously compressing Russia's strategic maneuvering space in Eastern Europe, Russia's Yeltsin government conducted a total of six rounds of arduous negotiations with NATO that lasted more than four months, and finally concluded on May 17, 1997 in Paris formally signed the "Basic Document on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between Russia and NATO" with the heads of 16 NATO countries and the NATO Secretary-General.
Because Russia, which was severely weakened after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, was unable to prevent NATO's eastward expansion, this basic document was a product of compromise between the two sides, although it let the Russians know that NATO was not there. The newly joined Eastern European countries deployed tactical nuclear weapons and built military facilities on their territory, but they gave the green light to NATO's eastward expansion. From then on, NATO's eastward expansion was out of control.
In March 1999, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic officially joined NATO; in March 2004, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania and Bulgaria7 countries became NATO members. New members; in April 2009, Albania and Croatia joined.
After three rounds of eastward expansion, NATO member states have expanded to 28, which is truly a strong force. Russia's strategic maneuvering space in Eastern Europe has been continuously compressed.
Faced with a one-sided advantage, NATO did not open up to Russia. Instead, it intensified its efforts and extended its tentacles to Ukraine and Georgia . This was later stranded due to the outbreak of the South Ossetia incident and the political civil strife in Ukraine.
For Russia, NATO's aggressive eastward expansion has already exceeded Russia's bottom line and is a serious threat to Russia's homeland security. Therefore, Russia has repeatedly emphasized that NATO should return to the state it was in when Russia and NATO signed the basic documents in 1997. After all, as a so-called defensive organization, NATO actually does things to stir up trouble and stir up trouble. Russia believes that if NATO still wants to save face, it will have the sense to return to the starting point in 1997.
In the face of Russia's opposition, NATO has repeatedly stated that it has no shame at all, and has lost no time in encouraging other Eastern European countries that have not yet "get on the train" to make choices as soon as possible.
Therefore, under the "call" of NATO, Sweden and Finland , as permanently neutral countries, also determined to "abandon darkness and turn to light" and insisted on joining NATO's army. After Turkey's "difficult mediation" by the United States, Turkey turned around and took the initiative to clear the obstacles for the two countries to join. Subsequently, NATO officially issued an invitation to the two countries. It was only a matter of time before the two countries got on board.
To the international community, such news is no different than a billionaire going to the trash can to pick up food. After all, everyone on earth knows that the seven permanently neutral countries, including Sweden and Finland, although they do not have the words "permanent neutrality" engraved on their faces, have long been widely recognized by the international community, including Russia. This means that as long as they stay on their own terms, they will not become positions and cannon fodder in the game between great powers.
But they voluntarily gave up the happy life of having both sides, and decided to go all the way with NATO. It is incredible no matter how you look at it.
The closer the two countries and NATO are getting closer, it also has immediate and negative consequences, especially the recurrence of the tense confrontation in 1939.
On August 23, 1939, Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union secretly signed the "Soviet-German Non-Aggression Agreement" in Moscow, secretly delineating the two countries' spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. Then Nazi Germany launched a blitz on Poland to launch World War II, and the Soviet Union sent troops to eastern Poland to carve up Poland for the fourth time.
After the partition of Poland, Nazi Germany marched westward across Western Europe to eliminate worries about attacking the Soviet Union. In order to cope with the upcoming Soviet-German war , after occupying eastern Poland, the Soviet Union launched the Soviet-Finnish War in November 1939. After paying an extremely heavy price, it obtained a large area of ​​Finnish land, which greatly expanded Leningrad's strategy. Depth.
Then the Soviet Red Army entered Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in March 1940, and then forcibly merged the three countries into the Soviet Union; in June, the Soviet Union forcibly seized Bessarabia from Romania, , and finally pushed the territory evenly westward. 300~400 kilometers, a large-scale "Pavlovian Defense Line" was constructed.
Today, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania have become members of NATO, and Russia has once again returned to that era of tension. However, the situation is also on the verge of breaking out, but Russia is not as aggressive as it was in the Soviet Union era, and can only struggle with NATO's continuous eastward expansion.
With only Belarus left in Eastern Europe, and Ukraine in a state of chaos, Russia, which has no way out, must fight back. So, under Russia's fierce counterattack, will NATO be severely weakened and fall apart, repeating the mistakes of the demise of the Warsaw Pact in July 1991? Jingye Shi believes that it is possible, and the probability is 0.0000001%.
This seems incredible, but it makes sense. Although NATO's eastward expansion has actually come to an end after Finland and Sweden joined, NATO's mission is far from complete.
As a product of the Cold War era, the fundamental reason why NATO did not go away with the wind after the end of the Cold War, but became more alive and energetic, is that the leader of NATO, the United States, is still very powerful, and in addition to fighting against the Soviet Union and society, NATO's mission The doctrine camp has even more considerations of threatening Western and European countries.
To put it bluntly, NATO is not only a sharp sword for the United States to stab the Soviet Union and the socialist camp, but also a heavy yoke on the necks of Western European countries.
Although after the life-and-death Cold War, the Soviet Union disintegrated, and the socialist camp disappeared, Russia is still a serious concern for Western countries. And more importantly, the United States' need to dominate Western European countries has not weakened but has become stronger as time goes by.
For the United States, Europe, as the center of the international political stage since the Age of Discovery, is also the stepping stone for the United States to reach its peak. Therefore, since the rise of the United States as a great power, it has been working hard to conquer Europe and dominate the world. Through the speculation of and and the layout of and in World War II, the United States successfully trampled the Western European countries under its feet and achieved a dramatic transformation from an upstart to a master.
From the perspective of the United States, although Western European countries have returned to before liberation overnight, and with the efforts of the United States and the Soviet Union, the third world have become independent one after another, and the Western European countries that have lost their colonies have completely lost the possibility of making a comeback. But Western Europe, as the United States’ position on the other side of the Atlantic, is an important support for the United States in its fight against Russia.
Therefore, the establishment of NATO was first to hold Western European countries hostage, and then to form a joint force against the socialist camp. Under such circumstances, the rise and fall of Russia affects the life and death of NATO, and Western European countries determine the historical direction of NATO.
In order to resist the control of the United States, Western European countries began unprecedented integration starting from the reconciliation between Germany and France. After the end of the Cold War, they followed NATO's continuous eastward expansion and finally achieved a higher degree of integration.
But starting from the " Marshall Plan " in 1947, Western European countries have been forced into the international market dominated by the United States. They have no real economic sovereignty at all. If they want to make a difference, they can only seek foreign aid. Therefore, in the era of Merkel , the relationship between Germany and Russia was once harmonious, which caused a lot of anger in the United States.
Therefore, the eastward expansion of NATO led by the United States is a blatant provocation to Russia. The purpose is to force the European Union to take sides, that is, only the United States will follow its lead.
In fact, as early as 1999, NATO bombed Yugoslavia , which caused the euro to suffer a cold winter. The Ukraine crisis made the EU miserable. It can be said that the United States completely controls the fate of the EU.
As a result, Germany in the Scholz era basically turned against Russia. Moreover, because of Russia's anger, especially the shock caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine, both Sweden and Finland, as permanent neutral countries, made the decision to collude with NATO.
Like the three Baltic countries, Poland, Romania and other Eastern European countries, the reason why Sweden and Finland want to follow closely is not only the current fear of becoming the next Ukraine, but more importantly, the historical reasons that they cannot look back on.
The Tsarist Empire at that time made a series of efforts to integrate into Europe. However, the past of being ruled by Mongolia and the deviation of the establishment of the Orthodox Church have made Russia always the "white-skinned Tatar" in the eyes of Western European countries. With no hope of integration, Russia chose to break into Europe and continued to seek to include Eastern European countries.
Although Russia is large in size, it still loves to "bet on the destiny of the country", which has led to the expansion and contraction of Russia's western territories. Eastern European countries have also suffered from the tug of war between Eastern and Western forces.
Therefore, in order to avoid repeating the same mistakes, they are determined to draw a clear line with Russia. Although I can't guarantee that the United States will attack at critical moments, I firmly believe that "beating a dog depends on the owner," and my choice is wise.
It can be said that because the United States is still very active as the core of NATO, NATO is still very energetic. Because the need to control Western Europe is still very strong, there is no reason for NATO to voluntarily die.
In the current NATO, with Sweden and Finland eager to try, the most terrifying consequence is Russia’s thunderous wrath. After all, Russia’s do-it-yourself character makes opening a second battlefield uncertain.
And judging from the process of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, although it was not as decisive as Thunder's attack, Sweden and Finland had the luck of not treating Russia as a great power. But because the war is getting richer and richer, Russia does not mind exhausting NATO.
In addition, because of the terrifying checks and balances of nuclear weapons, the Third World War is basically impossible to start, so there is no possibility of NATO's destruction. But after all, the United States and Europe are not of one mind. If Russia fights back in anger, NATO may still be there, and the United States may still be there, but those countries in Eastern Europe and even Western Europe who are lucky may not be so lucky.
has many omissions, please correct me.
I am Jing Yeshi, looking forward to your attention.
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