In the blink of an eye, half of 2022 has passed. In the past six months, the international situation has changed so drastically that it is dizzying, and too many things have happened that were unimaginable in the past. The most memorable thing is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict that has started since February 24, and the series of sanctions and counter-sanctions it triggered between Russia, the United States, and Europe. It can be seen that the situation between Russia and Ukraine has become a bright line connecting the international situation in the first half of 2022, and many events have unfolded along with it.
The United States has imposed extreme sanctions on Russia in an unprecedented and absurd way. The European Union is trying to cut off ties with Russia even if it is a dead end. Biden Although the slogan "America is back" is no longer shouted, the original relationship with the United States Europe, which was alienated from Germany, has returned to the American flag due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the biggest black swan event in 2022. How did it start and where will it lead the world? Let’s review it together.
The clues to the conflict were laid many years ago
On February 24, local time, Putin gave an order, and Russia’s special military operations launched in a way that no one expected. Many people were awakened from their sleep. The coverage of Russian artillery fire far exceeded the two states of Ukraine and East. The Russian assault force airborne at an airport in the northern part of Kiev Oblast. The Russian troops who had conducted military exercises in Belarus quickly entered Ukraine territory, heading towards Kiev, Russian ships appeared near Odessa in southern Ukraine. The special military operation of the Russian army shocked countless people who predicted that Russia and Ukraine would not develop military operations.
If you extend the timeline. A series of political and military incidents in Ukraine from 2013 to 2014 have already laid the groundwork for today’s Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States and Europe brought the color revolution to Russia's doorstep. Then Russia launched a series of countermeasures, Crimea entered Russia, and the Donbas conflict broke out. This sharp turn in Russia-Ukraine relations was followed by a series of sanctions against Russia by the West, led by the United States. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the false "honeymoon period" between Russia and the West officially came to an end. Although in the 2010 NATO strategic document, NATO still deceptively listed Russia as a "possible partner."
Trump ’s four years, the strategic chaos of the United States only gave Russia a short respite. As soon as Biden took office, he bared his fangs against Russia again. In the first half of 2021, Zelensky was instigated by Biden to send troops to Donbass , and he himself went to the front line in military uniform. As a result, Biden backed down when the matter came to pass, but the Russian-Ukrainian conflict surrounding the Donbas region has already begun.
Putin and Biden parted on bad terms during their first general visit in June 2021. In December, the second general visit became a watershed. After a two-hour closed-door meeting, the smell of gunpowder in the statements between the White House and the Kremlin has spilled out of the paper. The White House even issued harsh words. If Russia continues to "invade" Ukraine, the United States will take strong economic response measures. One month before the second Prime Minister's visit, the United States had begun to provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. has reason to believe that from then on, Biden had already thought clearly that he must provoke a conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
After the second general visit, the United States announced that the "Truman" aircraft carrier would be stationed in the Mediterranean as a precaution, and the Russian army began to conduct large-scale military exercises on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Starting in December 2021, the White House and the Pentagon began to systematically release news through mouthpieces such as the New York Times: "Russia will invade Ukraine." On February 24, the boots finally hit the ground.
The logic behind the United States’ continuous incitement of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine
Why did Biden eagerly instigate conflicts between Russia and Ukraine as soon as he came to power? In fact, this is determined by the United States' long-term European strategy and is also a decision made by Biden based on realistic considerations.
In the long run, the long-term strategy of the United States and even the Americans in Europe is to create a threat or target for European countries, so that they have to rely on the United States, provoke conflicts when necessary, and let Europe fight internally to protect its own interests or hegemony.
For the United States, Russia, with its vast territory and prosperous military ethics, is undoubtedly the best imaginary enemy in Europe. In addition, over the past hundreds of years, the Russians in various periods have interacted with Poland, Finland, Sweden , Baltic countries and even Turkey have deep hatred. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, as the successor of the Soviet subject, naturally inherited these hatreds. In the eastward expansion of NATO led by the United States, these historical grievances continue to play a role, causing the relationship between Russia and Europe to continue to stretch, tighten, and eventually break.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, under the deliberate guidance of the United States, Russia has become a country burdened with "original sin." Countries that have historical enmity with Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic States, have completely lost their minds at this time and have become the most useful anti-Russian vanguards in the hands of the United States.
After talking about the long-term strategy, let’s take a look at how Biden embarked on this path. What Biden inherited from Trump was a mess: a raging epidemic, extreme social divisions, huge debts left by the previous government, and alienated European allies.
Judging from Biden's instigation of Ukraine and provocation of Russia when he came to power, this political veteran who has experienced the Cold War has decided that it is time to move Europe, harvest a wave, and let them understand who is the boss. In the eyes of this politician who grew up in the Cold War era, many of the troubles he faces can be solved by provoking a Russia-Ukraine conflict.
So it can be clearly seen that after Biden came to power, he did not take effective measures to control the scale of US debt. Instead, he proposed a trillion-scale infrastructure plan while printing money and spreading money. The harvest plan may have already taken shape among the White House decision-makers. The next step is nothing more than how to force Russia out of the way and reunite global allies under the American Stars and Stripes .
Of course, how to drag China into the water and make a mess with Russia must have been one of Biden's initial plans. However, China did not enter the game. On the contrary, India hindered the US sanctions against Russia at every turn, causing Biden a lot of chaos, but this is all for another day.
Although no one mentions Biden’s words “America is back” anymore, it shows that the US president, who is about to turn 80, is determined to revive the precarious US hegemony.
Russia acted decisively, breaking its front teeth at the first bite
The US-led European strategy has determined that if Russia does not take the initiative to safeguard its own interests, sooner or later NATO cannons will be placed at Russia's doorstep. This is why Russia took decisive action in 2014. In May 2021, the Biden administration raised the issue of Ukraine joining NATO. After two general visits, the Kremlin has understood that it has no choice but to take action.
Before taking action, Moscow made a series of actions that were both a last resort and quite deceptive. It asked for a guarantee from the United States and Europe, did not allow Ukraine to join NATO, and guaranteed Ukraine's permanent neutrality. The United States also played along with Russia, asking Moscow to write a guarantee not to "invade" Ukraine. There was a tacit understanding between the two parties and no one responded positively. The United States began to hype up the news that "Russia is about to invade Ukraine", but Russia denied it three times. But what is supposed to come will still come.
html On February 24, Russia's special military operation began in a form that no one expected - Moscow had no intention from the beginning to limit the conflict to the two states of Ukraine and East China. Since the West is unwilling to make a commitment to ensure Ukraine's neutrality, Russia will create a neutral Ukraine.The results are known to all parties, and the Russian army broke his front teeth at the first bite. After a month, the Russian army failed to capture the thief first, and sadly withdrew from Kiev and fought steadily in Wudong. With Russia withdrawing and the United States advancing, the West, which has clearly seen Russia's reality and reality, has begun to fully support Ukraine. The US military aid has been expanded from the previous light weapons ammunition to heavy weapons . It has been decided to ALL IN.
The European Union has been dragged into the situation step by step.
From the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it only sent 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, to the recent addition of 3 PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. Germany's change in military aid to Ukraine perfectly explains how the EU In this conflict, they were dragged down step by step.
Among the EU countries, Germany is the most dependent on Russian energy. Therefore, from the beginning, Germany was the most resistant to the United States provoking the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the least willing to completely separate from Russia. When it comes to military aid to Ukraine and energy sanctions against Russia, Germany is dragging its feet as long as it can. As a result, Scholz was ridiculed by Poland, Lithuania and other countries. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany even insulted him as an "angry pig liver sausage".
Under a series of pulls, the two European leaders, Germany and France, had to join the game. At the G7 summit, they announced together with other leaders that they would support Ukraine indefinitely. Even Macron, who has always advocated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, rarely stated that "Russia cannot and should not win." The fate of the EU means that they have to help the United States bring down Russia at the expense of Europe.
The choice of the European Union and Germany and France means that Europe has handed over the right to mediate Russian-Ukrainian affairs. How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will play out in the future depends only on the face of the United States and Russia's performance on the battlefield.
Under the extreme sanctions, Biden did not expect...
A conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe returned to the strategic jurisdiction of the United States, Biden did achieve some goals, but there were also many things that exceeded his expectations. For example, U.S. financial sanctions seem to be less effective against Russia's energy hard currency.
When Biden weaponized the U.S. dollar, the ferocious face of U.S. dollar hegemony was exposed to the world in an unprecedentedly ugly manner. Under this, Russia’s series of de-dollarization strategies have also sounded the alarm to the world, and anyone may be next. Biden's operation is actually "loosening the ground" for the hegemony of the US dollar.
Logically speaking, the United States has already established the Asia-Pacific strategy (later developed into the Indo-Pacific strategy) as early as the Obama era, and regards China as its biggest competitor in the future. Some political elites in Europe and the United States also believe that Russia is already a thing of the past and they can just wait for its decline.
The COVID-19 epidemic and the ensuing global supply chain crisis and potential economic recession have allowed short-sighted American interest groups to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the forefront. The United States is too greedy to want to wipe out Russia all at once and solve its immediate crisis.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended yet, and there are still too many unknowns ahead. At the NATO summit, NATO will revise its strategic document to regard Russia as the "biggest and most direct threat" to the international order. This means that as Biden achieves his goal of reuniting allies, the game between the United States and Russia will completely enter an incandescent stage. The game between Russia and the West may not be limited to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia is fighting for its life and death, and the United States seems to be betting on its national destiny.
If Russia cannot be taken down, there will probably be a big question mark as to whether the allies Biden has forcibly gathered around him will disperse, and whether U.S. hegemony can be sustained.
At least for now, Russia has shown considerable resilience in its confrontation with the United States. Although the United States and Europe have made it clear that they will not be directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the West collectively stated at the G7 summit that it will support Ukraine indefinitely, who can guarantee that a Russia-Ukraine conflict will not lead to a larger one? black swan event.
For the United States, Russia, with its vast territory and prosperous military ethics, is undoubtedly the best imaginary enemy in Europe. In addition, over the past hundreds of years, the Russians in various periods have interacted with Poland, Finland, Sweden , Baltic countries and even Turkey have deep hatred. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, as the successor of the Soviet subject, naturally inherited these hatreds. In the eastward expansion of NATO led by the United States, these historical grievances continue to play a role, causing the relationship between Russia and Europe to continue to stretch, tighten, and eventually break.
In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, under the deliberate guidance of the United States, Russia has become a country burdened with "original sin." Countries that have historical enmity with Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic States, have completely lost their minds at this time and have become the most useful anti-Russian vanguards in the hands of the United States.
After talking about the long-term strategy, let’s take a look at how Biden embarked on this path. What Biden inherited from Trump was a mess: a raging epidemic, extreme social divisions, huge debts left by the previous government, and alienated European allies.
Judging from Biden's instigation of Ukraine and provocation of Russia when he came to power, this political veteran who has experienced the Cold War has decided that it is time to move Europe, harvest a wave, and let them understand who is the boss. In the eyes of this politician who grew up in the Cold War era, many of the troubles he faces can be solved by provoking a Russia-Ukraine conflict.
So it can be clearly seen that after Biden came to power, he did not take effective measures to control the scale of US debt. Instead, he proposed a trillion-scale infrastructure plan while printing money and spreading money. The harvest plan may have already taken shape among the White House decision-makers. The next step is nothing more than how to force Russia out of the way and reunite global allies under the American Stars and Stripes .
Of course, how to drag China into the water and make a mess with Russia must have been one of Biden's initial plans. However, China did not enter the game. On the contrary, India hindered the US sanctions against Russia at every turn, causing Biden a lot of chaos, but this is all for another day.
Although no one mentions Biden’s words “America is back” anymore, it shows that the US president, who is about to turn 80, is determined to revive the precarious US hegemony.
Russia acted decisively, breaking its front teeth at the first bite
The US-led European strategy has determined that if Russia does not take the initiative to safeguard its own interests, sooner or later NATO cannons will be placed at Russia's doorstep. This is why Russia took decisive action in 2014. In May 2021, the Biden administration raised the issue of Ukraine joining NATO. After two general visits, the Kremlin has understood that it has no choice but to take action.
Before taking action, Moscow made a series of actions that were both a last resort and quite deceptive. It asked for a guarantee from the United States and Europe, did not allow Ukraine to join NATO, and guaranteed Ukraine's permanent neutrality. The United States also played along with Russia, asking Moscow to write a guarantee not to "invade" Ukraine. There was a tacit understanding between the two parties and no one responded positively. The United States began to hype up the news that "Russia is about to invade Ukraine", but Russia denied it three times. But what is supposed to come will still come.
html On February 24, Russia's special military operation began in a form that no one expected - Moscow had no intention from the beginning to limit the conflict to the two states of Ukraine and East China. Since the West is unwilling to make a commitment to ensure Ukraine's neutrality, Russia will create a neutral Ukraine.The results are known to all parties, and the Russian army broke his front teeth at the first bite. After a month, the Russian army failed to capture the thief first, and sadly withdrew from Kiev and fought steadily in Wudong. With Russia withdrawing and the United States advancing, the West, which has clearly seen Russia's reality and reality, has begun to fully support Ukraine. The US military aid has been expanded from the previous light weapons ammunition to heavy weapons . It has been decided to ALL IN.
The European Union has been dragged into the situation step by step.
From the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it only sent 5,000 helmets to Ukraine, to the recent addition of 3 PzH-2000 self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. Germany's change in military aid to Ukraine perfectly explains how the EU In this conflict, they were dragged down step by step.
Among the EU countries, Germany is the most dependent on Russian energy. Therefore, from the beginning, Germany was the most resistant to the United States provoking the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the least willing to completely separate from Russia. When it comes to military aid to Ukraine and energy sanctions against Russia, Germany is dragging its feet as long as it can. As a result, Scholz was ridiculed by Poland, Lithuania and other countries. The Ukrainian ambassador to Germany even insulted him as an "angry pig liver sausage".
Under a series of pulls, the two European leaders, Germany and France, had to join the game. At the G7 summit, they announced together with other leaders that they would support Ukraine indefinitely. Even Macron, who has always advocated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, rarely stated that "Russia cannot and should not win." The fate of the EU means that they have to help the United States bring down Russia at the expense of Europe.
The choice of the European Union and Germany and France means that Europe has handed over the right to mediate Russian-Ukrainian affairs. How the Russia-Ukraine conflict will play out in the future depends only on the face of the United States and Russia's performance on the battlefield.
Under the extreme sanctions, Biden did not expect...
A conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe returned to the strategic jurisdiction of the United States, Biden did achieve some goals, but there were also many things that exceeded his expectations. For example, U.S. financial sanctions seem to be less effective against Russia's energy hard currency.
When Biden weaponized the U.S. dollar, the ferocious face of U.S. dollar hegemony was exposed to the world in an unprecedentedly ugly manner. Under this, Russia’s series of de-dollarization strategies have also sounded the alarm to the world, and anyone may be next. Biden's operation is actually "loosening the ground" for the hegemony of the US dollar.
Logically speaking, the United States has already established the Asia-Pacific strategy (later developed into the Indo-Pacific strategy) as early as the Obama era, and regards China as its biggest competitor in the future. Some political elites in Europe and the United States also believe that Russia is already a thing of the past and they can just wait for its decline.
The COVID-19 epidemic and the ensuing global supply chain crisis and potential economic recession have allowed short-sighted American interest groups to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to the forefront. The United States is too greedy to want to wipe out Russia all at once and solve its immediate crisis.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not ended yet, and there are still too many unknowns ahead. At the NATO summit, NATO will revise its strategic document to regard Russia as the "biggest and most direct threat" to the international order. This means that as Biden achieves his goal of reuniting allies, the game between the United States and Russia will completely enter an incandescent stage. The game between Russia and the West may not be limited to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia is fighting for its life and death, and the United States seems to be betting on its national destiny.
If Russia cannot be taken down, there will probably be a big question mark as to whether the allies Biden has forcibly gathered around him will disperse, and whether U.S. hegemony can be sustained.
At least for now, Russia has shown considerable resilience in its confrontation with the United States. Although the United States and Europe have made it clear that they will not be directly involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the West collectively stated at the G7 summit that it will support Ukraine indefinitely, who can guarantee that a Russia-Ukraine conflict will not lead to a larger one? black swan event.
