According to Singapore "Lianhe Zaobao" website, Western sanctions on Russia have led to the closure of Russia's payment channels to overseas creditors. On the 26th, Russia experienced its first foreign exchange sovereign debt default since 1918.
After a hundred years, Russia defaulted on its sovereign debt again. This default was not caused by Russia's inability to pay, but by its ability to pay and its refusal to pay. Therefore, Russian President Putin directly signed the payment of debts with rubles , which eventually led to the sovereign debt being forced to default.
So will Russia be the biggest victim of sovereign default?
Obviously not. The direct consequence of a sovereign default is that it is unable to obtain investment and cannot raise debt. Judging from the current sanctions on Russia, it is impossible for Western countries led by the United States to invest in Russia again before the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends. It is also less likely to buy Russian sovereign debt. In the long run, it will have a great impact on the Russian economy. Russia is very willing to continue to repay its debts. In the first two times, Russia paid off its debts in US dollars normally. However, the United States restricted Russia from paying to the repaying bank, and it did not allow it to pay if it had money. , then Russia could only pay in rubles, and was artificially caused to default on its sovereign debt.
If this counts as Russia giving up on paying its debts, then the biggest victims can only be Russia’s creditors. Russia has a foreign debt of up to 478.2 billion US dollars, but the main creditor of such a huge debt is the EU . The EU will undoubtedly Becoming the biggest victim of Russia’s sovereign debt default.
The main creditor countries of Russian bonds are Italy, France, Austria and the United States. The proportion of Russian bonds held by these four countries is as high as 68%. This move will kill 800 enemies and hurt itself by 1,000. Although it can strangle Russia's future How to survive the current economic development potential?
Debt that was supposed to be a source of income has turned into a mess, which may directly trigger the bankruptcy of creditors. Coupled with high inflation that has hit a 20-year record, and a food crisis that is about to explode, no one can tighten their belts. The EU did not dare to impose sanctions on Russian natural gas , but Russia in turn used natural gas to attack the EU. First, the failure of repair parts for "Beixi 1" directly led to the natural gas export to the EU being reduced to 60%. Soon, "Beixi 1" "No. 1" will undergo annual maintenance for 11 days, and the natural gas exported to the EU will drop to 0. It is expected that the price of natural gas in the EU will soar by 200%. How will the EU spend the next days? It's definitely not something that can be overcome by lowering the heating or bathing temperature by a few degrees.
The recent G7 meeting unanimously decided to ban the import of Russian gold . In the ranking of countries with proven gold reserves in the world, Russia ranks second with 13,000 tons. In the ranking of global gold producers, Russia also ranks second in the world. , with an output of 343.54 tons, accounting for 9.72% of global output. In 2021, 94% of Russia's gold exports went to the United Kingdom. It seems that sanctions will have a greater effect on Russia. Obviously, the G7 ignored a very important factor, that is China. China is the world's largest gold consumer. In 2021, it imported 818 tons of gold, and China can eat all of Russia's production.
Western countries, led by the United States, have already imposed sanctions on Russia for the sake of sanctions, regardless of whether they have any effect, and they may suffer the consequences in the end.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has begun. Western countries have already used their deadliest trump card. Russia has survived. The ruble is stronger than ever. So other sanctions can only scratch the surface, especially when China and Russia are back-to-back. under the relationship.
(picture comes from the Internet, deleted)
