Biden has been in trouble again recently.
This time it is not Russia, but the other corner of the "China-Russia-Iran axis" regarded by the United States - Iran .
According to the U.S. State Department, Iran may be able to "obtain a nuclear bomb" within "a few weeks." Some international experts believe that it will only take 10 days. U.S. Special Envoy Robert Malley even warned that Iran has actually "already reached this point." That’s the step.”
Although the time is controversial, these statements undoubtedly point to the same dangerous fact - Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold and is close at hand, "approaching the point where no external force can prevent it from manufacturing nuclear weapons "!
What makes Biden even more troublesome is that the United States is now completely blind on this issue.
The reason is very simple. The Iran nuclear negotiations have been stuck for several months. Iran has recently fallen out with the International Atomic Energy Agency and shut down a number of cameras. In addition, it has engaged in a spy war with Israel and its intelligence work has been extremely strict. The information that Deng could get was either fragmentary and incomplete, or patchwork and contradictory.
Biden is completely unable to make a judgment on when Iran will break through the "nuclear threshold", when it will build a nuclear device capable of carrying a nuclear bomb, and when it will build a missile that can launch nuclear warheads .
In other words, Iran’s nuclear weapons issue is out of control for the United States!
The struggle behind the negotiations
In fact, according to Biden's intention, solving the Iranian nuclear issue still depends on negotiation. Especially in the current context, talking is better than not talking.
Why? There are three main points.
One, the oil problem.
From a practical perspective, Iran is the fourth largest oil barrel in the world. If OPEC+ does not agree to increase production, if we can reach an agreement with Iran and take advantage of the situation to lift some oil sanctions, it will be equivalent to strengthening the global market. A heart attack can immediately calm market panic and curb high oil prices to a large extent.
And high oil prices are the political problem that troubles Biden the most. Whenever there is an opportunity to make a comeback, Biden will not let it go.
second, stable Middle East .
From a geostrategic level, the United States' Middle East strategy emphasizes "balance of power." Only by ensuring that all forces do not show up can the United States maintain control.
But If Iran really crosses that threshold and becomes a nuclear power, then who else in the Middle East can "balance power" with Iran? Iran, with its "nuclear superiority", is bound to become the dominant player in the Middle East, and its foreign policy will become more radical. Who else can stop the expansion of the "Shia Arc"?
So from Obama , to Trump , and then to Biden, they are all using their own methods to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, Trump’s tough pressure has not only consumed the United States, but in fact Failing to stop the Iranians' secret efforts, the United States has invested more and more resources in containment, which in turn has aroused Iran's determination to acquire a nuclear weapon. Then the United States will have to further increase containment. When will this end?
Since "maximum pressure" does not work, as long as the United States does not want to use military means, Obama-style negotiations are the only way.
Third, return to the Indo-Pacific.
After Biden came to power, the United States has maintained a trend of strategic contraction in the Middle East in order to concentrate its efforts on containing China.
The biggest obstacle to the United States' strategic contraction from the Middle East is Iran. Because of this nail, the United States not only cannot escape, but also needs increasingly heavy investment.
But conversely, once the United States and Iran can sign an agreement and stabilize the overall situation in the Middle East, then the United States will have spare power to allocate a large amount of resources in the Middle East and invest in the competition between Asia and China.
From Iran’s perspective, there is actually controversy over possessing nuclear weapons.
At the very least, because of the nuclear issue and the falling out with the United States in recent years, the inflation and economic difficulties caused by sanctions are real. People's lives are getting worse and worse, and protests have become the norm, which has greatly shaken the Tehran regime. authority.
Moreover, under US sanctions, Iran has faced many years of political isolation. If it forcibly acquires nuclear weapons, Iran will inevitably pay a greater political price, and the surrounding security environment will deteriorate to the extreme. This is not what Iran wants..
Therefore, in Iran, from the moderate Rouhani to the hardline Lacey, in fact, they do not want to end the road. It is best to sign an agreement that is beneficial to Iran, so that Iran can achieve political and economic progress. It is much more reliable to no longer be squeezed out and truly become a normal independent country than to stick to nuclear weapons and engage in radical and risky policies.
It is precisely because both sides are interested that after Biden came to power, the United States and Iran were willing to sit down and talk.
In order to show his sincerity, Biden even relaxed restrictions on Iran's civilian nuclear activities, and Iran happily accepted the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Although both sides are stubborn in their words, their intentions for negotiations are genuine.
But the problem is, whether we can talk about it or not, it doesn’t matter if Biden says it!
The current Iranian nuclear negotiations are mainly stuck on two points: First, Iran demands that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from its "list of terrorist organizations"; second, Iran demands that the United States make a guarantee that the signed agreement will not be used again in the future. Just tear it apart like the King of Understanding.
President Biden can’t agree to either of these two things.
The first thing is that the Middle East allies are opposed.
In the past few years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has successfully created a "Shiite Arc" for Iran that has changed the pattern of the Middle East and greatly strengthened Iran's presence in the Middle East. However, this expansion has also made Middle Eastern countries generally uneasy and regarded it as A scourge.
If the United States really removes the Revolutionary Guards from the list of terrorist organizations and lifts corresponding sanctions, the final result will definitely anger its Middle East allies, especially Israel.
It goes without saying that Israel is important to the United States. Even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, when the price of gasoline is soaring, it is too late for the United States to ask for help. How can it dare to make people unhappy?
The second thing is that Biden cannot be the leader of the Republican Party .
As early as February, when the agreement was most promising, a group of Republicans wrote to Biden, saying that you cannot sign a new agreement with Iran. Even if you sign it, we will either tear it up in Congress, or After the Republican Party returned to power, I tore it up for you. In a word, if you sign it, you will sign it in vain!
The reason for the Republicans is also very simple: After Obama signed the nuclear agreement with Iran, oil sanctions were loosened, which led to a surge in Iran's financial resources. It used a lot of money to fund agents and allies throughout the Arab region. Now you have to sign a new Agreements and relaxation of sanctions, what else is this but capitalizing on the enemy?
Once this big label is slapped, what else can Biden do?
Especially Iran’s image in the United States has been demonized for a long time. Biden’s approval rating is now in jeopardy. If he shows any signs of being “friendly” towards Iran, he will definitely be criticized by all parties and affect the Democratic Party’s election. Therefore, at least in the mid-term elections Before the end, Biden simply did not have the courage to solve the problem.
But the midterm elections are far away in November, and Iran’s nuclear breakthrough is imminent. According to Israel’s assessment, Iran will be able to develop nuclear bombs, vehicles, and missiles in half a year. By the time the US election is settled, the day lilies here will be cold!
So if Biden can’t handle these two issues, can he force Iran to make concessions? Neither does
, because there is also a big brother behind Iran.
On June 23, Foreign Minister Wang Yi was invited to have a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahian. asked the United States, the "initiator", to realize its mistakes, make an early political decision, actively respond to Iran's reasonable demands, and express its intention to strengthen China-Iran relations. relations and continue to "firmly support each other on issues involving each other's core interests and major concerns."
On the same day, Lavrov met with Abdullahian in Tehran. Both sides also stated that they would cooperate to oppose the "Western aggressive policy." Abdullahian also specially thanked China and Russia for their support of Iran.
This is clear support.
In fact, a very important principle is involved here, that is, As a participant in the Six-Party Talks, China and Russia also oppose Iran's nuclear possession.
But China and Russia’s “anti-Iran nuclear” and the United States’ “anti-Iran nuclear” are different.
The so-called "anti-Iranian nuclear" by the United States is actually deliberately confusing the "Iranian nuclear issue" and the "Iranian issue", and then using the "moral advantage" of the nuclear issue to suppress Iran in an open and honest manner.
Think about it, before the Iranian nuclear issue, how many years had the United States imposed sanctions on Iran? At the beginning of 2000, Iran's uranium enrichment did not exceed international standards. What basis did the United States have for imposing "nuclear sanctions"?
It’s just because the United States wants to contain Iran, and it happens to have a big cover for the nuclear issue.
When Iran explained its nuclear stance before, it said, " must not give in under pressure from the United States, otherwise it will be equivalent to giving up Iran's national status ." This is the truth.
However, Iran is an important cornerstone for Russia to establish a foothold in the Middle East and an important link in China's "One Belt, One Road". The relationship between China, Russia and Iran lies there. China and Russia will definitely help Iran to push back the hegemonic iron fist of the United States.
This determines the position of China and Russia on the Iranian nuclear issue, which must be different from that of the United States - they must maintain the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism, oppose Iran's nuclear possession, and maintain stability in the Middle East; they must also oppose the United States' use of the Iranian nuclear issue to We are trying to suppress Iran and even bring down Iran.
With the attitude of China and Russia behind it, at least the Iranian nuclear issue cannot completely follow the United States’ intentions. There will be no unilateral concessions by Iran, and the United States is also facing pressure to make concessions.
And as mentioned before, with the current American system, bullying can be done, but equal concessions are impossible.
Then this matter will naturally come to a standstill.
Biden’s solution
Therefore, it is difficult to find a diplomatic path.
However, it is a fact that Iran can build the materials for a nuclear bomb in a matter of weeks or a few days.
If it gets to that point, what will be the situation in the Middle East?
Will the United States, which acquiesces to nuclear-armed Israel, stockpile nuclear warheads like crazy? Will Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries, which have already had nuclear programs, take the opportunity to start the nuclear process?
What can the United States do when faced with a nuclear race in the Middle East? It cannot stop Iran, but prevents its allies from "building nuclear weapons to protect themselves"?
Even if we take a step back and say that these allies can be appeased and not engage in nuclear competition, the price must be that the United States will take care of it, increase its security investment in the Middle East, and double the protection of its little brothers.
But this way, the United States is embarrassed again: heavy troops are in the Middle East, and it faces the risk of conflict with Iran or even nuclear war at any time. Proxy wars are raging in the Middle East. The United States no longer has the energy to suppress China and Russia, and "returns to the Indo-Pacific" "It turned into an unfinished project and I watched the rise of China on my knees!"
This assumption is now becoming reality. For example, the United Arab Emirates, which has the most sensitive political sense and the most flexible skills in the Middle East, has recently made a bet on Iran and actively improved its relations with Iran. This is to find a way out for the failure of the United States to control the situation.
Now the ball is in Biden’s court. If diplomatic negotiations fail, there must be a plan to deal with it, right?
Then, two plans began to surface.
First, use the power of allies to form a regional alliance against Iran.
During Biden's trip to the Middle East in July, in addition to asking for oil, on the one hand, he also wanted to work hard for the Iranian nuclear negotiations and personally go to the Middle East to do Israel's ideological work. But it is hard to say whether the Israelis will give him face.
On the other hand, is to continue the momentum of normalizing relations between Israel and Arab countries last year, and to integrate the Israeli and Arab ally networks militarily, such as using the Pentagon as a hub to connect the prevention and control of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries. system to build a large air defense network across the Middle East to deal with Iran.
The advantages of doing this are: first, it fully mobilizes the strength of allies, replacing the huge investment of the United States, and realizing the localization of defense; second, it takes the opportunity to reconcile conflicts among allies and saves the United States trouble; third, it deepens the relationship between allies The security dependence of the United States has strengthened the United States' control over regional allies, especially those children who have been disobedient recently.
But the flaws of this solution are also obvious.
First of all, is it possible to put Israel and Arab countries together? Not talking about Israel, just talking about these Gulf countries, none of them have reached this level of trust!
Especially on sensitive national defense issues, it is absolutely impossible for Israel to reveal its defense system to Arab countries, and it is impossible for Arab countries to share their own air defense data. Therefore, it depends on how far this defense network can be stretched. It doesn't look promising.
Secondly, if you do this around Iran, what will Iran think?
No matter what you say, from Iran's perspective, the threats and pressure against the country are increasing, right? Is the security situation surrounding the country deteriorating?
There is a pack of wolves around, what will you do? You must hold on tightly to the nuclear weapon option and never let go!
Moreover, the United States has American strategies, and Iran also has Iranian wisdom.
The United States has established a large alliance against Iran, right? Why not Iran?
So recently, Iran has been negotiating with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey to seek to improve bilateral relations, and has successfully signed some agreements.
No matter how much the relationship can be improved in the end, at least it will weaken the will of all parties to join forces and make it more difficult for the U.S. defense alliance system to succeed.
Second, use force.
In fact, the United States does not want to directly confront Iran. After all, Iran is not Afghanistan . It has a strong military, a vast territory, and many mountains. Not to mention whether it can win the war and how much it will cost, the current United States can still afford to be trapped in the Middle East again. 20 years?
If possible, the United States would prefer to use the Israeli method. Today, a motorcycle killer will carry out an assassination, tomorrow your nuclear scientist will be inexplicably poisoned, and the day after tomorrow, he will plan an accidental fall from a building, and then carry out a cyber attack if nothing happens. After going through the espionage process, the three armies settled the matter without moving.
But these petty tricks cannot delay Iran’s national-level plans.
Then there is only one option left, war.
Israel has put down its words. If the nuclear negotiations between the West and Iran fail, the Israel Defense Forces will plan "several military options" against Iran.
Then in early June, Israel held a military exercise that "simulated an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities." Almost all Israeli troops participated, and it was billed as Israel's "largest-scale exercise in history."
The intended goal of this exercise is a "fierce, multi-front and protracted war."
What’s interesting is that the US military was originally going to participate, but ended up not going. Not only did they not go, but afterwards the US Central Command and the Pentagon also scrambled to “refute the rumors” and repeatedly clarified that the US military was not “directly involved” for fear of Iran’s overthinking.
But the question is, if Israel is determined to drag the United States into trouble, can the United States still watch from the sidelines as it did with Ukraine ?
In fact, it is easy to understand that the United States does not want to get involved, because if this war really breaks out, whether Israel takes the initiative to attack, or Israel and Iran encounter conflicts, the situation will only be worse than a war between Russia and Ukraine!
At that time, the United States may not directly participate in the war, but adopt an upgraded version of the Ukrainian model to provide intelligence and advanced weapons support to Israel.
Iran, on the other hand, has launched agents in Syria , Lebanon and Iraq to completely spread the flames of war and fight a protracted regional war.
And outside the battlefield, Iran will most likely block the Strait of Hormuz, or take advantage of its geographical location to attack merchant ships in the Gulf. In extreme cases, it will also actively attack countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which will shock the global energy market. , will definitely be bigger than today.
Of course, some people say that instead of going into an all-out war, is it okay to eliminate some of Iran's nuclear facilities?
Specifically, carried out a "precision bombing" before Iran broke through the nuclear threshold, using ground-penetrating missiles to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving nothing behind. The idea of
is certainly possible.
But let’s not talk about the problem of Iran’s cunning rabbits. Let’s just say that if you want to launch missiles, your bombers can get through, right?
When the bombers go over, you have to destroy Iran's radar and air defense system first, right?
As for attacking Iran’s air defense system, isn’t this a declaration of war?
Therefore, as long as force is used, there is no option of "precision surgical strike". Once the war starts, it will be an all-out war.
Once this kind of all-out war starts, it will be difficult to stop!
At the end of the article, Rong Ping said
Today's Middle East is a "powder keg about to explode." No one knows when it will explode, and no one knows how far it will spread.
All countries are waiting for the United States to put out the fire.
If Biden cannot show "leadership" in a crisis, and is still as helpless as he is now, then in the future, from Israel to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among the countries in the Middle East that are already half-hearted about his elder brother, who will still be determined to regard the United States as their only big brother?
If you add Russia's victory in the Ukrainian battlefield and China's "Belt and Road Initiative" to conquer cities and territories in the South Pacific and other regions, for the United States, the most terrifying reality has actually emerged -
China, Russia and Iran are actually forming a linkage effect. , a long snake, hit it at the head and the tail will come, hit it at the tail and the head will come, hit it at the middle and the head and tail will come, attack from three sides, respectively challenge the three most important hegemonic strongholds of the United States in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East, and let the United States fundamentally You can't concentrate all your strength on one place.
No matter where the crisis is, what can Biden do to deal with it now?
If you press fleas with ten fingers, the United States will be unable to survive!
