Since Russian President Putin announced the launch of a "special military operation" in Ukraine on February 24, the war between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than a hundred days.
In this more than 100-day battle, the Russian army, Ukraine, and Western countries that support Ukraine are all trying to achieve their goals. From Russia's perspective, their current goal is to at least capture the two regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, and consolidate the current control area along the southern coast of Ukraine.
As for Ukraine, whether it can withstand Russia and defend the city like the previous battle in Kiev is related to the final outcome. Therefore, Ukraine's most important task at the moment is to defend the cities in the Donbass region.
Of course, everyone knows that Ukraine is not fighting alone. Russia is facing Ukraine, which has assistance from most of the Western world.
Prior to this, a series of NATO national dignitaries, including US Secretary of State Blinken , Polish President Duda, British Prime Minister Johnson , Macron , and Schultz, have visited Kiev. expressed support for Ukraine and brought some promises of weapons, money, etc.
In the international community, Western countries kicked Russia out of the U.S. dollar settlement system and terminated all technology transfers and most commercial cooperation with Russia. It is generally believed that Russia's GDP will decline significantly this year.
However, even in such an unfavorable situation, there is still optimism about Russia.
So, can Western sanctions and Ukraine's resistance turn into a "war of attrition"? Can Russia really have the last laugh and defeat the West in a war of attrition?
1, the war has entered a "stalemate"
The answer is yes.
At least for the moment, the war in Ukraine has changed from a three-sided attack by the Russian army at the beginning, an all-out attack on Kiev, Kharkov and other large cities in Ukraine, to a situation where both sides focus on Izyum , Kherson and North The tug-of-war in the Donetsk-Lischichansk area.
During this period of time, neither the Russian army nor the Ukrainian army made much breakthrough. Neither side achieved decisive results. Ukraine has never been able to drive away the Russian troops around Izyum and Severonetsk, nor can it break through the Russian defenses in Kherson. The Russian army also failed to quickly capture the big cities in the Donbas region.
The Russian army rarely engages in large-scale insertions, roundabout attacks and parachute assaults as it did at the beginning of the war. Most of the Ukrainian army also huddles behind the fortifications in a defensive posture.
Since the Ukrainian army's air defense system has not been completely destroyed, and the Ukrainian army has no ability to control the air, the heavy firepower that both sides rely on most has become artillery, and it is the infantry that determines the outcome of the advance. Regardless of whether it is the Russian army or the Ukrainian army, moving forward requires paying a high price.
In other words, today’s war between Russia and Ukraine has changed from a full-scale Russian attack-focused attack to a stalemate stage. Once a war reaches a stalemate, what determines the outcome of the war must be the war potential and will of the combatants. Considering Russia's strong financial resources, it will be difficult for Ukraine and the West to "live through it."
2, the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine has not changed
On the front line of Donbas, where fighting is taking place directly, Russia still has the following advantages.
First of all, in terms of stocks of weapons, ammunition and technical equipment, Russia has more abundant reserves than Ukraine.
There are still many tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft stored in warehouses in Russia. The Russian army has only more than 2,200 tanks in active service, and there are tens of thousands more tanks staying in the rear. If necessary, the Russian army can repair these tanks. For example, restarted the early models of T-62 and T-72 to participate in the war in Ukraine.
Although the T-62 tank is a tank from the 1960s and 1970s, it is relatively old.However, its total weight of more than 40 tons, as well as its low turret, 50 km/h speed and excellent off-road capabilities can make it more flexible and maneuverable in combat.
What's more, today's T-62 tanks can also be equipped with reactive armor, and active defense systems to improve protection capabilities. is much easier to use than Ukraine, which lacks tanks and armored vehicles.
As long as the Russian army uses it properly, even using the T-62 can achieve excellent results on the battlefield. And Russian artillery can also use a large amount of ammunition accumulated in the Soviet era.
What's more, there are still a large number of Su-24, Su-25 attack aircraft, MiG-21 and MiG-29 fighters left over from the Soviet era, as well as a large number of armed helicopters that can be used.
In contrast, even if Ukraine can receive weapons assistance from Western countries, the amount is very limited. Most of the artillery, helicopters, aircraft and tanks used by the Ukrainian-Russian army are left over from the Soviet Union, and most of the can only use Soviet-made ammunition.
Since most NATO countries rarely stockpile Soviet-style weapons and ammunition, even if the West plunders the Middle East and European Soviet-made ammunition, it will be difficult to make up for Ukraine's consumption.
Over time, Ukraine is likely to be trapped in the dilemma of running out of ammunition on the front line. At that time, it will create conditions for the Russian army to win. Moreover, even if Ukraine receives assistance, it will take a long time to train before can adapt to NATO weapons and ammunition.
Secondly, Russia still has abundant human resources that can be used. In the current war, Russia's human resources have not been fully released. Most of the soldiers who were injured or killed on the front came from remote areas and South Caucasus , Buryatia and other ethnic minority areas.
Considering that there are still many men in the big cities in western Russia who have not been mobilized, Russia can recruit troops from big cities such as Moscow, St. Petersburg and find ways to get people to join the army. After all, the combined population of these two cities is as much as 20 million.
Russia can even implement general mobilization to recruit men within a certain age range across Russia. allowed Russia to mobilize hundreds of thousands or millions of troops again.
In contrast, Ukraine's population is less than one-third that of Russia. Even after military expansion, has only about 1 million capable soldiers, which is much fewer than Russia.
Once again, the West’s support for Ukraine is not impeccable. Each NATO country has its own national interests, and their demands in this Ukrainian war are not completely consistent.
For example, Turkey, as a major military power in NATO, strictly maintained neutrality in this war. It did not allow warships from other countries to enter the Black Sea through the Dardanelles and Bosporus Strait.
Another example is Germany and France. As the most powerful countries on the European continent, there have always been voices supporting Russia. Many politicians hope to continue to buy Russia’s cheap natural gas . do not want the war to expand, so they rarely provide lethal supplies to Ukraine. Sexual, offensive heavy weapon .
After all, most countries in Europe depend on Russian gas. Since the 1990s, European countries have regarded Russia's cheap energy as an important tool for Russia-Europe cooperation.
Russian energy and European industry are actually complementary to each other and have a mutually beneficial relationship. The conflict between and Russia will inevitably have a huge negative impact on the West's energy.
Now that European countries have turned to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia, some people in European countries have had to turn to firewood due to natural gas shortages. Natural gas-related electricity prices and transportation costs have also increased.
Considering that most Western countries implement presidential and parliamentary systems, political figures must consider the votes of the people, and what Western people care most about is the quality of life they can see in front of them.
In the Western world, including European countries and the United States, except for the United States, the military expenditure of most European countries is less than 2% of the total GDP. Even a large European country like France only has 469 tanks. Its armaments are lax and horse racing The extent of Fang Nanshan is much more serious than that of Russia.
What's more, most people in European countries have enjoyed more than 80 years of peace since the end of World War II. They are generally opposed to being involved in wars, and is even more impatient for a long-term war of attrition.
They are unwilling to shed blood and sacrifice for the distant Ukraine, and they cannot bear the additional costs caused by rising energy prices.
If Western politicians are responsible for the quality of life of the people, then they will have to seek compromise from Russia in the future. This is also the most important reason why there are "friendly Russia factions" in European countries such as Germany, France and Italy.
If things go on like this, Western countries will inevitably reduce their aid to Ukraine for their own interests. Russia has a military advantage now and will continue to do so in the future.
3, the Russians will not admit defeat
Russia’s confidence comes not only from its advantages on the external battlefield, but also from the will of senior officials and ordinary people, which is why they dare to fight a war of attrition.
The Russian leadership will not admit defeat, because the consequences of failure are fatal. The war with Ukraine involves Russia's face, the fate of Crimea, and so on.
Despite the heavy pressure from the West, Putin's closest partners, whether it is Sergei Shoigu, Lavrov or Peskov, have shown perseverance at critical moments. .
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in April that if the West dared to assist Ukraine with arms, Russia would open fire.
Foreign Minister Lavrov said in June that NATO cannot decide Europe. Russia is not without flaws, but Russia is not shy about showing its strength.
Even Medvedev, who previously resigned as prime minister and was considered to have a cold relationship with Putin, has come out to express his position many times, saying that Russia will continue to the end and is not afraid of Western sanctions.
As a negative example, the popular former Crimean Prosecutor General Natalia Poklonskaya declared after the launch of this special military operation that "Z" represented the tragedy between Russia and Ukraine. obscenely opposed special military operations, resulting in a quick dismissal.
It can be seen that the will of Russia’s top leaders has not wavered. They are still high-spirited and willing to compete with the West and Ukraine.
Not only will Russia’s leadership not admit defeat, most ordinary people in Russia also have a positive attitude towards special military operations. According to a report by the Russian polling agency "Levada Center", Putin's support rate reached 83% after the start of the special military operation, a new high in four years.
Many ordinary people are not only supporting the Putin government, but also donating materials to the Russian army on the front line, such as medical facilities, drones, toilet paper and food that the Russian army needs.
In addition, the exchange rate of Russian Ruble also remains strong. Although the ruble had been falling in February and March due to sanctions against Russia, the official exchange rate of the ruble was stabilized due to the Russian government's series of interest rate hike policies and insistence on using rubles to purchase Russian goods. Today, the dollar against the ruble has reached a level of 1:56.
In the face of Western sanctions, although the quality of life of the Russian people has declined, it is not too serious. For example, the West stopped car trade with Russia, resulting in a shortage of car parts and imported cars in Russia. But it has to be admitted that Russia also has its own automobile industry and brands, such as Lada cars.
Even though McDonald's and KFC withdrew from Russia, local substitutes such as CFC and SFC soon appeared in Russia. And the sugar shortage that is much talked about by the outside world will not have much impact on ordinary people. After all, Russian sugar beets can be harvested this autumn.
When the West looks at the Russian nation and this country, they always underestimate their tenacity and hard-working spirit. During World War II, Russians could survive by eating poor black bread.
During the Cold War , they could live in the narrow Khrushchev House, survive by supplying goods in a planned way, and even prepare for the survival and production of nuclear war.
Even in the chaotic 1990s and the Western sanctions after 2014, the Russian people were able to endure a poor life and accepted Crimea's entry into Russia. In Crimea, where economic sanctions are the most severe, although the local area has been cut off from water and electricity for a long time, the Russians there have still survived and their hearts go to Moscow.
The Russians have endured so much suffering before, What does Western sanctions mean this time? As long as there is enough food and sufficient fuel, the Russians can persevere. Not only that, Russia also has the ability to respond to NATO's military challenges.
Even though the main force of the Russian military is now invested in Ukraine, Russia still has the ability to deter the West. Russia's nuclear arsenal still has more than 5,900 nuclear warheads, which are distributed in various underground silos, trucks, and nuclear submarines in Russia and are difficult to be completely destroyed by NATO.
They can also use Sarmat , Dagger, Yars and other hypersonic missiles to fight them out. is a sharp sword hanging over the head of the Western world. When the Western world contains an opponent, it often implements a naval blockade. After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, France, Greece and other countries successively seized Russian merchant ships, which reflects this.
Russia is a land-based country. In theory, the West only needs to block the Great Belt Strait between Denmark and Norway , or the Gulf of Finland export between Helsinki and Tallinn , plus Turkish Strait can "block" Russia's outlet to the sea, and makes it impossible for Russia to trade with other countries through merchant ships.
But NATO countries should not forget that Russia is still a maritime power. Although the strength of the Russian navy has declined compared with the Soviet era, it is still capable of preventing Western intervention. guarantees Russia's maritime lifeline.
NATO's main maritime forces in Europe are mainly Britain, France and the US Sixth Fleet . Its greatest deterrent to Russia is nothing more than 4 aircraft carrier battle groups . However, the Russian Navy is not idle. The Russian aircraft carrier "Kuznetsov" is expected to be repaired and redeployed within this year.
Although its overall performance is not as good as that of the United States, Britain and France, it is still an aircraft carrier with a full load displacement of 60,000 tons and can carry 41 carrier-based aircraft . is enough to ensure that Russia has capabilities in the Baltic Sea and Arctic Ocean waters. stalemate with the West.
Russia also has two "Glorious" class cruisers that can compete with the maritime power of NATO countries.
After all, the Glory-class cruiser is a proper arsenal ship, with the reputation of "aircraft carrier killer". They have a full load displacement of more than 12,000 tons, powerful firepower, and can carry 120 rounds of various types of missiles . The can launch saturation strikes against US aircraft carrier battle groups.
Although there is a precedent for the "Moscow" being sunk, considering that the Moskva may have had the radar equipment not working properly at the time, which allowed Ukrainian missiles to take advantage of the loophole, the performance of the Slava-class cruiser was not It cannot be underestimated.
Moreover, Russia still has a large number of mothballed tanks on the ground, and aircraft can still be used. All in all, NATO does not dare to use military means to confront Russia, and does not dare to block Russia's maritime lifeline.
Moreover, Russia has not fallen into isolation in the international community. Russia's long-term cooperation partners include Belarus, the Central Asian countries' Collective Security Treaty Organization and Russia have de facto security cooperation.
Once Russia falls, the security of these countries will be challenged, therefore, they will inevitably support Russia in this Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In addition, Russian oil, coal and natural gas can still be exported to India and East Asia. Among them, China and Russia have reached a large natural gas order worth tens of billions of dollars, and India is also building a natural gas pipeline through Central Asia to Pakistan and then to West India.
In terms of oil, taking advantage of the opportunity of discounts due to lower Russian crude oil prices, India's crude oil imports from Russia increased from 4.5 million barrels last year to more than 24 million barrels in a single month in May this year.
It can be seen that even if Russia's energy exports are affected in Europe, they can also develop markets in Asia and gain profits. is not only good for Russia's energy exports, but food is equally important. Iran, Syria , India and China are all buying Russian grain.
For example, Iran imported 7 million tons of grain and oil cargo from Russia in 2021. After the start of special military operations this year, Iran defeated the temptation of the United States to lift sanctions and increase oil production. stood on the side of Russia and announced that it would More than 20 million tons of grain and oil will be imported from Russia.
Considering that the current war has had a negative impact on global food exports, prices of cereals, oil crops, etc. have risen sharply, and many countries are facing food shortages.
As one of the world's major grain exporters, Russia's status is bound to become increasingly important. To sum up, the West and Ukraine are in a stalemate with Russia on the battlefield and have no ability to defeat the Russian army.
The people and politicians in Western countries also lack the same strong will of the Russian people and high-level officials. What's more, Russia still has abundant energy, food and military reserves. Russia can persist in this war of attrition no matter what. The West wants to We have to fight a war of attrition with Russia and we cannot win.
