The Sino-U.S. relationship is the most important bilateral relationship between China and the U.S. at present and in the future. It is not only of great significance to the two countries, but also deeply affects countries in the world. The Sino-U.S. game has intensified, and this fierce confrontation will continue for at least several decades before the relations between the two countries can be stabilized in a brand-new model.
What stages will the Sino-US game go through?
We plan to look at 's competition between China and the United States from the perspective of the United States. Why not follow China's perspective? Because my country has never regarded the United States as a competitor, China has always been committed to coexisting peacefully with all countries in the world, including the United States, and building a community with a shared future for mankind for the benefit of the people of the world. So the future direction of Sino-US relations depends on the US attitude towards China.
The competition between the United States and China will go through five stages: distrust, suppress, frustrate, compromise, and live together in a friendly manner. In the first two stages, the United States is taking the initiative, and my country is passively taking the initiative, but starting from the third stage, we will gradually take the initiative. The above five stages have been fully experienced between the United Kingdom and the United States several hundred years ago, and the relationship between China and the United States is now at the end of the second stage. Let me break it down one by one.
The first stage: doubtful
When China joined the WTO in 2001, many experts predicted that as China develops, China will eventually catch up with the United States and even replace the United States in its global position. But the United States refused to recognize this. This was not arrogance, but that the gap in comprehensive strength between China and the United States was too great at that time. At that time, the United States was skeptical about whether China was capable of challenging itself. It would pay attention to us, but it would not care too much.
Since the fall of the former Soviet Union, the United States has become the only superpower in the world. At the beginning of this century, the United States ranked first in the world in terms of economy, technology, military, and culture.Every item is outstanding, and the overall strength is dominating the world.
A prosperous American city
But the United States needs an opponent, there is no opponent, even if it creates an opponent, how can interest groups such as military industry ask Congress for more military spending? Therefore, the United States began to look for new potential competitors all over the world. China, Russia, India, Japan, and Brazil have all been missed by the United States.
The United States looked for it, and finally believed that there were only four countries or organizations in the world that could challenge itself in the future: the European Union, China, Russia, and India. In 2001, Russia had the strongest military strength and massive natural resources, the European Union had the strongest economic and technological strength, and China and India were relatively weak.
simply compares the economic aggregate to the power gap of all parties 20 years ago, GDP can very well reflect the basic strength of a country. A country can only develop science and technology and military affairs if it has money, and can export culture to the outside world. In 2001, the total GDP of the United States was US$10.58 trillion, making it the only economy with a volume of more than US$10 trillion. At that time, the European Union's GDP was 7.39 trillion US dollars, China was 1.34 trillion US dollars, India was 0.49 trillion US dollars, and Russia was only 0.31 trillion US dollars. The sum of the four was less than the United States.
American cities
The United States, which has no rivals for the time being, unscrupulously launched two wars. These two wars not only consumed the US treasury, but also caused him to owe huge debts.
Finally, in 2008, Sa Huan's America fell into a big somersault, and the subprime mortgage crisis broke out. The impact of this crisis is so great that financial giants like Lehman Brothers are falling apart. This crisis has allowed the world to see the weak side of the United States. Although the United States is strong, it is not without its weaknesses.
In addition to the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, there was another event that attracted worldwide attention, that was the 2008 Beijing Olympics. China hosted an excellent Olympic Games, and it has been talked about by the world until now.China has demonstrated its prosperity and progress to the world through the Olympics.
2008 Beijing Olympic Games
2008 is a critical year. Divided by this year, the United States has begun to attach importance to China, and Sino-US relations have entered the second stage.
The second stage: suppression
This stage started in 2008 and will probably end in 2022. At this stage, the US strategy against China is to suppress it. The United States, which has been defeated for nearly 20 years, suddenly discovered that there is another country in the world that can compete with itself, not an imaginary enemy but a real competitor. The United States is angry!
Since the end of World War II, there have been four countries and organizations that can challenge the global status of the United States, namely the former Soviet Union, Japan, the European Union and China. The United States has done the first three, and the former Soviet Union even ceases to exist. They all have obvious weaknesses, and none of them have the ability to challenge the United States in all aspects.
But China has made the United States hit a nail. China is a country that can fully challenge the United States in economic, military, technological, cultural and institutional aspects. The United States has never encountered an opponent like , which is fundamentally different from any previous opponent. The United States also lacks experience in how to suppress China. The previous tactics used in dealing with the Soviet Union and Japan have been applied to China, and the effect is not satisfactory. The Americans are also flustered, and it is impossible for anyone to remain indifferent to unknown strength.
Looking at China's achievements in the past ten years, can the United States not be angry? Can you not use the power of the wild to suppress us?
First, in 2010, China's industrial output value surpassed the United States, becoming the world's largest industrial country. Since the United States has surpassed Britain in industrial output value in 1894, this is the first time in a century that it has lost its throne as the world's number one industrial country. Even in Japan at its peak in the 1990s, industrial output value never surpassed that of the United States.
In 2010, China’s industrial output value exceeded that of the United States
By 2020,China's industrial output value and manufacturing output value are 1.5 times that of the United States. GDP does not actually represent the true national strength of a country. Industry and manufacturing are the foundation of a country.
By 2012, China's merchandise trade volume surpassed the United States, becoming the world's largest foreign trade country. The simple understanding of foreign trade is to do business between countries. The higher the amount of foreign trade, the greater the economic influence. China is already the largest trading partner of more than 100 countries in the world, and China's economic status can be imagined.
Foreign trade has surpassed the United States, and the other thing to exceed is the total retail sales of consumer goods. If the former is external power, the latter is internal power. A martial arts master can be invincible in the world with both internal and external training, and the same is true for a country. At present, China's total retail sales of consumer goods has reached more than 90% of that of the United States, and the growth rate is much higher than that of the United States, which means that it will only be a matter of a few years to surpass the United States.
busy port
The world's largest foreign trade and domestic demand, coupled with the world's largest manufacturing capacity and the world's unique industrial chain, constitute China's core competitiveness. As for the total GDP to exceed that of the United States, that is a matter of course!
In response to China's challenges, the United States has also adjusted its strategy in time. At the beginning, the US government put forward the concept of " G2 ". If China is willing, G2 will replace G7 as a new mechanism for managing the world. The United States' vision is that the United States is the world's largest, China is the world's second largest, and the two countries jointly manage the world. The United States will always hold the highest end of the manufacturing industry, and China will always be at the middle and low end of the manufacturing industry, providing the United States with massive amounts of basic necessities. In a word, the United States is at the top and China is at the bottom. The two countries share the wool of the world.
I think very beautiful, but is that reasonable? Our country resolutely rejected the olive branch handed out by the United States. On the one hand, China will not exploit other countries like the United States; on the other hand, the Chinese people have the right to pursue a higher quality of life. Our industrial structure will not always be at the middle and low end, and sooner or later we will move towards the high end.
Seeing that China did not take the bait, the United States chose a strategy of suppressing China in an all-round way. The United States first proposed the Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy.Then actively operate TPP in an attempt to isolate China in economic and trade. TPP almost succeeded, but never expected Trump to be miraculously elected president of the United States in 2016. The first thing that came up was to abolish the TPP. Poor TPP! The last U.S. president worked hard for a few years, and was almost dead at the end.
After Trump came to power, he pursued the United States first, and the world’s indiscriminate attacks have offended almost all allies. It is a two-pronged blow to China on trade and technology, but the results have been minimal in the past four years. The Sino-US trade surplus not only did not shrink, but continued to expand. China has made leaps and bounds in its core technological autonomy.
Night view of Chinese cities
Trump failed to be re-elected. After the new US president came to power, he reunited with allies in an attempt to besiege China. But with the exception of a few countries, most countries only verbally agreed, with almost zero actual actions, because no one wants to easily offend the world’s fastest-growing economy.
This stage of the crazy suppression of China by the United States will basically end in 2022. The United States has tried its best to deal with us, and now it is too weak. Then it's time to enter the next stage.
It can be said that in the first two stages, our country is passive. Starting from the third stage, our country has gradually changed from passive to active.
The third stage: frustration
The United States can not effectively prevent China's development by all means. As China's comprehensive strength continues to grow, the United States has to admit that it is no longer the only dominant force in economy, military, science, or culture, and Silicon Valley is no longer a leader in global technology. It will have an overwhelming blow to the United States at that time, and it will inevitably make it feel frustrated.
This phase will start in 2022. When will it end? My personal estimate is around 2030. At that time, China’s industrial output value will be twice that of the United States.The total GDP exceeds that of the United States to become the world's largest economic power. China is both the world's largest manufacturing base and the world's largest domestic demand market. China's influence on the world has reached an unprecedented height, and the United States finally reached a consensus: It is meaningless to continue confrontation with China. If confrontation fails, then cooperate.
The United States is a very realistic country. Although domineering but not pedantic, if it is determined that China cannot be suppressed, thankless things should come to an abrupt end. At this stage, the competition between China and the United States has basically achieved a balance between the two sides. The United States has begun to turn from active to passive, and China has begun to master the rhythm.
Fourth stage: Compromise
Sino-US relations will enter the fourth stage after 2030. This stage is where China takes the initiative. The United States is a commercial country, and everything is profit-oriented. When it is determined that the rise of China cannot be prevented, the United States will compromise, and it will seek as many practical benefits as possible.
For example, can the United States' allies in East Asia, Japan and South Korea, sell them at a good price? At this stage, the United States will barter, frequently exchanging benefits with China. Of course, the final result may not be what the United States wants. China is a country with principles and a moral bottom line. This stage may last until the middle of this century, and then Sino-US relations will enter the final stage.
The fifth stage: friendly coexistence
The final stage is when the United States completely accepts the rise of China, accepts that it is no longer a global leader, and coexists with China in a brand new model. The world will enter a brand-new era, the world pattern will undergo earth-shaking changes, and a community with a shared future for mankind will formally form.
The biggest difference between China and the United States is that China is not a hegemonic country and will never bully the weak. We want to live a better life for ourselves, and we also want to promote ourselves and others to make the entire Blue Star better.
Industrial upgrading
China-US relations are currently at the end of the second phase.The United States has basically exhausted all the means it can use, and the most intense period of confrontation in Sino-US relations has passed. But we still cannot relax. Sino-US relations will continue to advance in confrontation and cooperation in the coming decades. As time goes by, confrontation between China and the United States will become less and less, and cooperation will become more and more.
For China, the core is the solution of internal problems. Concentrate on handling internal issues. At the same time, it is not easy to fight with the outside world, and to buy more time for domestic peaceful development. In history, all the successful rising powers have done this. The United States was in this way back then.
my country is now investing heavily in semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, and aerospace. From a long-term perspective, as long as we can calm down, make no major mistakes, and maintain economic growth, China's rejuvenation is just around the corner.
.
