My mainland friends asked me about the number of elected seats for each political party in the November 26th vote. Based on the internal polls of each political party, my approximate answer is as follows. The DPP has a more stable number of seats at 2+4, the Kuomintang has 4+10,

Article | Zhang Youhua

A friend from mainland China asked me about the number of seats each political party will be elected to vote on on November 26. Based on the internal polls of each political party, my approximate answer is as follows. The Democratic Progressive Party has a more stable number of seats at 2+4, the Kuomintang is 4+10, the People's Party and those without party membership have 1 seat each. Among them, the Democratic Progressive Party has 4+2 seats. In addition to Chiayi County, Tainan , Kaohsiung , and Pingtung County, it is also possible to win Keelung City and Penghu County . The Kuomintang 4+12 means that in addition to Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, and Taichung, it can also win Yilan, Hsinchu, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen, Lianjiang County, and Chiayi City, while the People's Party won 1 seat in Hsinchu City and 41 seats in Miaoli County without party membership. In other words, the DPP suffered a huge defeat, the Kuomintang won a thrilling victory, the People's Party made a small gain, and the pro-Blue party without party membership retained 1 seat. This is based on statistics from internal polls of each party.

Statistics show that the most paradoxical counties and cities in the current internal polls are not Hsinchu City, but Keelung City and Penghu County. These two counties and cities were originally owned by the Kuomintang. However, with Huang Xixian, a non-party member, in Keelung City, disrupting the situation, as long as Huang gets more votes, Xie Guoliang will lag behind Cai Taiping by a small number of votes. Therefore, the Kuomintang should send strong generals to assist Xie in defense in order to gain the lead. However, due to the split of the blue camp in Penghu County, how to initiate the abandonment of bail and Paulai Fengwei's attack to defeat Chen Guangfu depends on the KMT's strategy. As for Hsinchu City, when the Kuomintang expressed its stance that success does not depend on me, and the chairman and deputy speaker defected one after another, the situation suddenly became clear. The removal of the DPP has become a torrent, which has weakened Shen Huihong's momentum, which is equivalent to a slap in the face to Tsai Ing-wen and Ke Jianming.

Of course, this internal poll list is not a reference for selection, and it depends on the voting results. Having said that, based on the analysis of Tsai Ing-wen’s frequent meetings at the Central Party Committee of the Democratic Progressive Party to urge votes, it should be true that Tsai Ing-wen believes that 4+2, regardless of victory or defeat or seats, the DPP’s defeat is determined.

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