The Russo-Ukrainian war has had an unprecedented impact on the global order, and the Western world is no exception. Under the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war, a series of new trends and changes occurred in the entire Western bloc from top to bottom, from inside to outside. For example, Poland made a request for war compensation from Germany. This was something that was unthinkable before, but now similar things are emerging one after another. This is a deep-seated impact inspired by the Russo-Ukrainian war, and it is also an important strategic transformation. Considering the significance and impact of the Western bloc’s initiatives on the global order, we should pay sufficient attention to this.
In this regard, the author mainly talks about the following three aspects.
1. The fission of contradictions stimulated by war
Once upon a time, when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, some Chinese public intellectuals once shouted that China should quickly make a decision to move closer to the United States. They listed An important reason given is that Europe will become more united because of Russia's aggression and will stand together with the United States to fight against Russia. In the fight, they will become monolithic. This will not only increase the power of the Western group unprecedentedly and achieve an overwhelming and comprehensive victory in the war against Russia, but at the same time it will also close and block any possibility of trying to step on two boats between the United States and Europe. Therefore, they strongly advocate that China should make a decision to surrender to the United States and the West. If it does not surrender quickly and submit the "certificate of surrender" as soon as possible and submits too late, it will cause serious dissatisfaction from the United States and completely offend the United States, Europe and the entire West. Then it will be in big trouble.
Ever since, the call for unprecedented European unity and monolithic unity suddenly resounded in China's public opinion field. What is the truth about
?
The actual situation is that for Europe, the Russo-Ukrainian War is indeed a strong stimulus that has never been seen since the end of World War II. However, the result of this strong stimulus is not unprecedented unity and monolithic unity, but fragmentation and chaos. The main manifestations are:
First, mutual conflicts induce
Based on historical experience, major European countries are full of contradictions and have deep-rooted conflicts of interest. Many of them are unsolvable contradictions, but these contradictions have been covered up by the Cold War and post-Cold War expansion. Now, under the strong stimulation of the Russo-Ukrainian war, major countries such as Britain, France, Germany, and Italy have begun to make their own calculations on their policies toward Russia and measures to deal with the war. They are all calculating how to maximize their own interests through crises. They are full of suspicion among each other, and they even do not hesitate to stab each other in the back. In this regard, the country that has gone the furthest and appears to be the most impatient is Poland. This country, which has always been strategically shallow and ignorant, thought that it could be unscrupulous with the United States as its backer, so it unabashedly released its ambitions and desires, challenging Germany to the west, encroaching on Ukraine to the east, and becoming so hostile to Russia that they almost drew swords against each other. The most shocking thing is that the Polish authorities actually made a sky-high World War II claim to Germany, simply pushing Germany into the strategic opposition of Poland. The deep historical hatred between the two countries was once again awakened and turned into a serious real-life conflict.
Similar conflicts not only occurred between Germany and Poland, but other small and medium-sized countries such as Hungary and Serbia were also caught in the vortex of conflicts and crises and were unable to extricate themselves.
Second, domestic conflicts broke out.
The Russo-Ukrainian war put heavy pressure on European countries in all aspects. Among them, the internal conflicts caused by economic pressure were quite obvious. Because prices have risen sharply, public dissatisfaction has increased rapidly. Large-scale street protests have broken out in various countries to oppose the authorities' war policies, and society has become more turbulent. Reflected on the strategic level, under the pressure of the United States, fierce quarrels broke out within the ruling groups of various countries. Some advocated making decisions based on their own national interests, while others followed the lead of the United States and advocated following the United States step by step. They were constantly fighting with each other, which plunged the authorities into a political whirlpool and faced an unprecedented test.Germany is a typical example. Although German Chancellor Scholz successfully visited China, it is still hard to say whether he can pass the visit.
The third crisis is flooding Europe
The storm of the Russo-Ukrainian war is swirling in Eastern Europe, but it is the European Union that is caught in the whirlpool of crisis. Since the outbreak of this war, the EU has suffered successive setbacks and shot itself in the foot. The unprecedentedly severe economic sanctions against Russia have not done much to Russia, but have made the EU itself disgraced. The explosion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was like a deep blow, hitting the backbone of the EU economy. These continuous setbacks have resulted in the entire European Union now being unable to find a way out economically or politically. It is like a lonely boat on the sea, struggling pointlessly in the wind and waves. It can be said that the crisis has engulfed Europe. The days to come will be very difficult, and it will not be a momentary sadness, but a long suffering.
The continued development of the above-mentioned contradictions and conflicts may lead to serious strategic fission in Europe and even the entire Western bloc. At present, such fission has already created a big hole in its edge part, namely Turkey.
2. Comparison of forces under the impact of war
The Russo-Ukrainian war has developed to this stage. What both sides of the war are most concerned about is no longer the benefits but the costs.
For Russia, the current situation is that it cannot end the battle on the battlefield without defeating Ukraine, and if it wants to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, it must win the strategic struggle with the United States and the West. Otherwise, the Western Group will use its strategic advantages to vigorously aid and support Ukraine, and the possibility of Russia winning the war will be very slim. To win the strategic struggle with the West, Russia must objectively obtain obvious battlefield advantages and obtain even a relative and certain degree of military victory. This presents a rather embarrassing dilemma, such as crossing a river, but the ferry is on the other side, but the river cannot get the ferry, and if you cannot get the ferry, you cannot cross the river.
Therefore, as the Russo-Ukrainian war continues to this day, Russia can only rely on the protracted period and can only wait and look for opportunities in the protracted period.
For the United States and the West, in order to win this hybrid war with Russia, relying solely on encirclement and suppression methods such as sanctions and containment seems to be slow or even ineffective. According to the current situation, entangled with Russia in this way, even if it lasts for ten or eight years, there may not be any results. To win the war, you must first win on the battlefield, and to win on the battlefield, you must defeat Russia's armed forces . Judging from the comparison of their respective strengths, if they go all out, the Western Group led by the United States is capable of doing this, but the cost of defeating Russia is prohibitive for them. If Russia is really defeated, even if there is no nuclear war , and it is only limited to the scope of conventional war, the United States, the Western Group and Russia will definitely suffer one death and one injury. Although Russia may collapse and fall apart, the entire Western world will also be seriously injured and disabled; if a nuclear war unfortunately occurs, the result is likely to be shared destruction. Taking into account such costs and costs, the Western groups led by the United States will have to be deterred from this. Now, they are generally not optimistic about this Russo-Ukrainian war.
Therefore, under the strong impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the global strategic balance of power is undergoing significant changes:
First, the European part of the Western world has been severely weakened
The so-called Russo-Ukrainian war has made NATO Strengthening is just a superficial phenomenon. In fact, the overall strength of both Europe and NATO has been severely depleted and weakened by the Ukrainian war, thus greatly reducing its ability to carry out larger strategic actions in the future. Correspondingly, the NATO group's delusion of continuing to expand eastward and striving to advance into the Asia-Pacific to play a role against China will also be significantly inhibited.
Second, the United States may be nailed to the unlucky place in Ukraine for a long time.
Don’t think that Ukraine is just a quagmire for Russia. In fact, it is also becoming a quagmire for the United States. If this war drags on like this, the U.S. election in two years' time will be a disaster for the Democratic Party Biden group, and the White House authorities will only lose but not win. It is an obvious fact that the Russia-Ukraine war has created a strong strategic constraint on the United States.
This situation is a major failure of the current global strategy of the United States, and it is also a huge interference factor in the "strategic competition" between China and the United States. Any claims that the United States has become the biggest beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine war and that the United States has made a lot of money are all nonsense. The Pentagon would not have such a stupid idea.
Third, Russia can only hold on
Russia's current strategic situation can be described as perilous and dangerous. Although the country has two trustworthy weapons for the country, namely the strong President Putin and the powerful nuclear strike force, it is still extremely difficult to get rid of the current situation. Generally speaking, there is no direct and effective way, but it can only "suffer" and "spent" in this way. Looking forward to the future, the Russians can only hold on to the end, and they must hold on to the end, otherwise they will die without a burial place. Now, there is a public opinion in China that spreads rumors that the West will strategically accommodate Russia so that Russia can contain China. This is completely nonsense. In fact, for a long historical period in the future, Russia can only rely more heavily on China strategically.
Therefore, when looking at the Russo-Ukrainian war from the perspective of strategic balance, it can be seen that the global balance of power continues to tilt in favor of China. The overall situation continues to be beneficial to China and not conducive to hegemony and the Western bloc. This is a general trend. In other words, the Russia-Ukraine war not only did not change the world's basic trend of "rising in the east and falling in the west", but it also significantly accelerated and intensified this trend.
3. The new world order driven by war
During the course of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin made many eye-catching important speeches. Each speech talked about ushering in a new global order. In his view, the Russia-Ukraine war undoubtedly has great positive significance, highlighted by its huge pulling effect, which seemed to be the final blow to promote the global strategic order.
Regardless of whether President Putin’s opinion is accurate or not, it cannot help but lead to thinking about what new changes are taking place in the world order under the traction and pull of the Ukrainian war.
This is indeed a very complex issue, involving a large and deep area. Let's explore it from the economic, political and strategic dimensions:
First, The new development of economic crisis
Economic order is the basis of world order, and wars have always been the first to deal with The economic order has had a strong impact, and so has the Ukrainian war. This war shattered the capitalist world's delusion of getting out of the economic and financial crisis since 2008. On this basis, it also suppressed drastic changes in the relationship between financial currency, energy, and food supply, thus further developing the economic crisis into a more severe economic war .
In this special form of war, "de-globalization," "decoupling," "technological blockade," and "de-dollarization" have become the main offensive and defensive measures. Driven by these measures, the global economic order is already on the road to major reorganization.
However, judging from the current situation, this economic war is still developing and changing, and is far from reaching its climax and peak. In terms of scale, there are still some countries and regions that are not involved; in terms of extent, it has not yet become polarized; in terms of means, it is relatively mild and has not yet reached the ruthlessness of the economic wars during the two wars.Therefore, the Western world is still on the development path from economic crisis to economic war. It is still in the initial stage of economic war. If it continues to develop along this path, it is still too early to say to what extent the economic war will develop and what kind of new global economic order it will lead to. The only thing that is certain is that this round of "globalization", which has been noisy for a while, is destined to come to an end.
Second, the further decline of Western democracy
Now, people have clearly seen what happened under capitalist democracy. The arrogance of capitalism that dominated the world after the end of the Cold War has disappeared. The so-called "end of history" has resulted in terrible degeneration. The internal strife and strife within the Western ruling class have reached a level unprecedented in history, with unprecedented and shocking political chaos occurring, even to the point of approaching civil war. The halo and gorgeous veneer of the democratic system in a period are now dilapidated and extremely ugly, and people's trust and confidence in this system have plummeted. The United States and the United Kingdom, the two leaders of capitalism, are the first to bear the brunt and have set a good example.
At the same time, people have seen very dialectically, comprehensively and clearly what capitalist modernization has brought to the world. That is, while bringing about huge technological progress, it also brings about astonishing destruction, degradation and sinking. The capitalist modernization model has developed to this day and is full of parasitism and predatory nature both internally and externally. Under the capitalist global order, the development gap between countries in the world is getting wider and wider. Except for a few Western developed countries at the top, the vast majority of third world countries are stuck at the bottom and are unable to stand up. They have no path to upward development and have lost the opportunity and possibility to achieve international equal status. The so-called capitalist democratic system has become very reactionary both internally and externally, and is widely disliked and hated.
It should be said that the above-mentioned process of the decline of Western democracy had already begun before the Russo-Ukrainian war. However, the Russo-Ukrainian war did not play a redemptive and redeeming role in this, and did not allow people to see the tendency of the Western democratic system to "do good" and "promote good". On the contrary, during the war, what people saw were the various ugly performances of the Western group "supporting evil" and "doing evil" under this system. In other words, the war in Ukraine further exposed the true face of capitalist democracy and caused it to once again undergo serious and large-scale degradation as a system. Instead of being reinvigorated by the war, this system has fallen deeper into the crisis of various internal and external conflicts. Its ability to repair itself has been deteriorating, and there is no prospect of self-healing. In other words, the Russia-Ukraine war has accelerated the decline of Western democracy, and no one knows where the bottom will be.
Third, the new process of hegemony degeneration
Hegemony is going downhill rather than uphill. Even the head of the White House, the President of the United States, has to admit this. They are doing their best to restore and regain this momentum, and all their actions are centered on this core goal, such as hybrid wars against China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other countries, such as the "strategic competition" launched against China, etc.
The reality before us is that hegemony is deeply involved in the ongoing Ukrainian war and has almost become the protagonist of this war.But the question is, can this war save hegemony and make it stop falling and recover?
We believe that for the hegemon, the Russia-Ukraine war has led to three obvious consequences. First, there are obvious flaws in the hegemon's ability to deter and contain war. Russia's courage to go to war with Ukraine is a failure and failure of US strategic deterrence, and such failure and failure will not stop here. Second, the world has fallen into a more intense process of major turmoil and reorganization, and the hegemon will be exhausted. The White House is running out of energy and unable to do what it wants. This is what the White House is doing when it comes to Iran and North Korea, and to some extent Turkey. Thirdly, the strategy of containing China will become even more difficult to achieve, because the Russia-Ukraine war has opened up many gaps and provided China with many great opportunities. This is true in the east, west, north, and south, as seen from mainland China. China's active diplomacy in the recent period after the 20th National Congress is a good proof.
Of course, if the hegemony comprehensively wins the Russia-Ukraine war, the situation will be different. But the problem is that Putin of Russia cannot allow such a situation to occur, and Russia also has the ability to prevent such a situation with snipers.
In this way, regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the hegemonic countries will probably have to swallow their tears, pretend to be happy, and reluctantly endure the war. The result will not only be ineffective in reversing the decline of hegemony, but will instead start a new process of accelerating the decline of hegemony. When President Biden ends his term in office two years later, looking back at his four years in power, he will surely realize that "the past is nothing to look back on" and "the United States is even worse."
Whether the profound changes in the above-mentioned aspects can give birth to the new world order mentioned by President Putin, frankly speaking, it is still difficult to say, but the rewriting of the world order is accelerating. This should be an undeniable fact. In this sense, Russian President Putin’s statement that the war between Ukraine and Russia ushered in or created a new world order is not unfounded or alarmist.
thus examines the impact and influence of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the world and the Western world. There is no doubt that the Russo-Ukrainian War has made the turbulent world under the great changes unseen in a century more turbulent. No one knows where the peak and climax of its development are so far. The likely future trend is that in a historical period, turbulence becomes the mainstream of human society, and balance and stability become rare. Under such circumstances, there may be a dangerous situation in which confrontation outweighs cooperation, and the crisis of war outweighs the appeal for peace. This is indeed a crossroads for human progress, but it is also a crossroads full of risks and challenges.
(The author is a senior researcher at Kunlunce Research Institute; Source: Kunlunce.com [original] revised draft, author authorized to publish first)
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