On the last trading day of 2022, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9514 at 16:30, a drop of 5784 basis points from 6.3730 at the end of last year, and a depreciation of 9.07%;

The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar in 2022 will depreciate by more than 9% throughout the year.

On the last trading day of 2022, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9514 at 16:30, a decrease of 5784 basis points and a depreciation of 9.07% from 6.3730 at the end of last year; On the evening of December 30, after the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau announced the extension of trading hours in the inter-bank foreign exchange market, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar regained the 6.9 mark during night trading.

Looking back at the trend of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar this year, it showed that it first rose, then depreciated and then rebounded slightly, but the RMB remained basically stable against a basket of currencies.

Specifically, due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and other factors, the RMB against the U.S. dollar began to decline in stages in mid-April, devaluing to around 6.8 in mid-May; after a period of shock, in mid-August the RMB The currency exchange rate depreciated again and fell below the "7" mark, falling below the 7.3 mark at the end of October; however, affected by the weakening of expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the RMB rebounded strongly against the US dollar in mid-November and regained the "7" mark in December.

Regarding the trend of the RMB against the US dollar in 2023, institutions tend to expect a slight appreciation.

CICC believes that the support of various domestic policies, the strength of the U.S. dollar, changes in cross-border payments, and the exchange rate related policies of regulatory authorities may be the key factors affecting the trend of the U.S. dollar and RMB exchange rates in 2023. Overall, the agency believes that the U.S. dollar may rebound in the first quarter of 2023, and the U.S. dollar/RMB exchange rate may be affected by this and rise to around 7.05. However, after entering the second quarter, affected by factors such as China's economic recovery and the shift in and the Federal Reserve's , the RMB may return to the track of appreciation. It is expected that the center of the USD-RMB exchange rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 may be around 6.70.

UBS strategy team believes that the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen in early 2023 and may experience certain fluctuations. This also means that the RMB exchange rate may weaken in early 2023 and may experience certain fluctuations. After this, although China's exports may weaken significantly in 2023 compared with 2022, given that commodity prices may fall and domestic commodity-intensive industries may remain weak, import growth may also slow down in 2023. The agency expects the trade surplus to remain roughly stable in 2023. In addition, considering that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in the second half of 2023, and as China's economy restarts and continues to recover, market sentiment is expected to drive the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in the second half of 2023. Taking into account market developments, the agency adjusted its forecast of USD/CNY at the end of 2023 to 6.8 from the previous 7.1.

Huatai Securities predicts that as growth continues to recover and the U.S. dollar cycle moderately declines, the RMB exchange rate will appreciate moderately to 6.78 by the end of 2023. Although it will take time for the real economy to recover, the revaluation of the RMB exchange rate and RMB asset prices may be "immediate", and domestic interest rates may also "rise all boats".

China Merchants Securities Macro Zhang Jingjing team believes that in terms of exchange rate policy, based on the "macro-prudential + micro-supervision" framework system, focusing on preventing the formation of unilateral expectations of exchange rate depreciation, accelerating the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, and promoting two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.