Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Zhou Jiabao
The 2022 Qatar World Cup is extremely popular, and star card players are also taking advantage of the opportunity.
Image source: Tuchong Creative
At 10 pm on December 2, a low-numbered signature card of Argentine star Messi was auctioned for 290,000 yuan after 120 bids.
"This is Messi's top series, with the top card signature, and it is 1/1, with all the elements. Let's wait and see." As early as when the bidding price was still 180,000 yuan, Lin Qing (pseudonym), who was bidding for a friend, told Times Finance that there were still two days left before the bidding cutoff.
The "1/1" he said refers to "1 made 1", which means that only one is issued in the world; and the Eminence series to which this card belongs is a high-end series positioned by the publisher Panini, with very low production and circulation; "card signature" means that the star himself directly signs the card, which is rarer than the star signing it in advance and then affixing it to the card.
There are still 30 hours left until the bid closes, and the bidding price has increased from 180,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan. "It's early, the auctions are all about bidding at the last minute." This is Messi's last World Cup game, and Lin Qing and his friends think it is a good opportunity to get out of the game. Earlier, a buyer offered to buy this card for NT$250,000.
Image source: Screenshot of Katao trading platform
On a domestic card trading platform, there are far more high-priced cards being auctioned than this one. As of noon on December 2, another "25" star card of player Messi has gone through 86 bids and reached 156,000 yuan; also in "25", the star player NBA NBA Luka Doncic national treasure series card with jersey cutting and signature has reached 134,000 yuan after 67 bids.
In the international auction market, the value of star cards has repeatedly hit new highs. In August, a Mickey Charles Mantle baseball star card was auctioned for a sky-high price of US$10.5 million (approximately RMB 72.5 million), breaking the sports collection auction record.
According to a report released by eBay, the e-commerce platform with the largest transaction volume of player cards in the world, throughout 2020, sales of player cards in China increased by 205%, ranking second in the world in terms of growth rate.
In July this year, in a special offline auction of star cards in Beijing, an NBA 2014-2015 season Panini Eminence series "Kobe Bryant (Kobe Bryant) Championship Tag Inscription Signature Card" was sold for a high price of 4.0825 million yuan. The total transaction volume of this special event reached 9.4484 million yuan, with a transaction rate of nearly 95%.
"Bicycles turned into motorcycles", star Curry cards soared 30 times
In fact, the earliest star card issuance was just a marketing tool.
In the 1980s, American tobacco manufacturers put player cards in cigarette boxes as gifts for promotional purposes. They gained a lot, and this small card also entered the eyes of consumers. Since then, with the commercialization of baseball, basketball and other sports events, star cards printed through special authorizations have been born.
In order to enhance the playability of the sales of star cards, the issuing company makes the star cards have a strict series and level through specially set differences in card technology, elements, and issuance quantities, and sell them in the form of blind boxes. The number of specific cards in a box of cards is limited. In order to get the card of their choice, consumers often need to "end the box" or "combine the box" to buy and then remove the cards. Which cards are removed is purely a matter of luck.
The issuance price of star cards was originally determined by the issuing manufacturer, and the price was relatively fixed. However, once the card is dismantled, its value is no longer affected by the issuer's selling price. The card's release time, rarity, quality and rating, player performance, etc., all become important factors affecting supply and demand, which also determines the transaction value of the card in the second-hand market. For example, if a box is sold for 9,000 yuan, the cards taken out may be worth less than 1,000 yuan, and there will be a profit or loss when the cards are taken apart.
In 2014, Shang Qi (pseudonym), a fan of NBA star Curry, received her first signed star card from a friend, worth about 300 yuan. As Curry's Warriors team won four NBA championships in the following seasons, Curry himself was elected as the best player many times, and the price of star cards in the second-hand market also increased. "This card is now worth about 10,000 yuan in the second-hand market."
She used to "end boxes" with her friends, but now she is more interested in collecting cards directly. Currently, many of the cards she collects are worth more than 10,000 yuan. The highest market price of a card has exceeded 200,000 yuan, but she only spent about 70,000 yuan when she purchased it.
The story of "bicycles turning into motorcycles" continues to unfold, and the star card market has become more and more active, especially NBA rookie cards with lower thresholds and greater room for premiums. "The performance of the rookie season is average. After several years of technical polishing, the performance on the field has made a big jump, and the card price will keep up, allowing for long-term investment." "A senior card collector told Times Finance that in last year's rookie season, a player's "25-edited" national treasure series signature card has a current market price of more than 100,000 yuan.
In September this year, Zhou Yongjun, Director of Business Development of eBay Greater China, said that the platform for the whole year of 2021 The GMV of star cards increased by 61% year-on-year; in the first quarter of this year, an average of one card was sold every 2 seconds. The global sports trading card market is expected to reach US$98.75 billion by 2027.
"Since last year, the domestic star card circle has expanded rapidly, and more and more people are flocking to it. "Vivia, marketing director of Vans Cat , a local trendy toy brand that focuses on star cards, told Times Finance, "Star cards have exploded in China. On the one hand, the suspension of sports events during the epidemic has caused fans to shift their emotional projection to peripheral products; on the other hand, the investment attributes of star cards have gradually emerged. "
She also revealed that during business exchanges, international dealers of star cards once admitted that many Chinese businessmen have taken the initiative to find them recently and reached procurement cooperation with them in the Chinese market. With the growth of the company's platform business volume, since 2021, The company's team size has also expanded from about 10 people to about 60 people now.
As a female sports blogger with a small fan base, Shang Qi also feels that the popularity of player cards is rising. "Last year, I started doing content on clothing and sneakers, and the number of fans increased very slowly. But after the star card unboxing video was released, it quickly gained the attention of 1,000 fans, and the number of views also skyrocketed. "Even though I haven't posted new content for several months, I still attracted 200 new fans."
There are many speculators, and star cards may become "leek cards"
Some people "turn bicycles into motorcycles", and some people "climb to the rooftop" because of star cards.
takes the hottest rookie investment as an example. On December 1, Hupu.com showed that Chandler Hutchison, the No. 22 pick in the first round of 2018, who had played for the Bulls, Wizards and Suns in the NBA, announced his retirement, and he was only 26 years old. "The retirement of such a player means that the value of his star card will return to zero. For players who previously chose him for investment purposes, they will lose all their money." A star card collector told Times Finance.
In addition, Times Finance has learned that there are currently many young people who regard star cards as emerging investments. There are many posts on social platforms about "must-see star cards for student parties" and "low-budget star card investment". Some netizens pointed out that star cards are "leek cards".
Vivia also bluntly said that the recent market prosperity has a big bubble, and the proportion of speculators who have a "gambler" mentality and have poured into the star card circle cannot be underestimated. "The industry is still a very immature emerging market. People are excessively pursuing hot spots and ultra-high prices, and the market bubble will become bigger and bigger."
Artificial manipulation of card prices often occurs in the industry. In August last year, more than 50,000 products of the largest player card seller on the eBay platform were cleared because the dealer was suspected of self-bidding. The artificially high prices deviate from the market's accuracy. Several industry insiders told Times Finance that self-bidding is also a common practice on domestic trading platforms.
It is worth mentioning that although both the international and domestic star card markets have experienced a period of rapid expansion, many star card enthusiasts and industry practitioners told Times Finance that since the start of the 2022 Qatar World Cup, the performance of the star card market has been uneven.
From a price point of view, on December 1, some self-media discovered that the price of Panini’s first year star cards traded on the eBay platform had plummeted.
According to the above-mentioned self-media statistics, the auction price of a card marked "2019-20 Panini One And One Timeless Moments Dirk Nowitzki /49" on the platform was US$1,875, but the previous transaction price of the card was more than US$2,100; the latest auction price of "2019-20 Panini One And One Timeless Moments Kawhi Leonard /49" on the platform was US$2,850, which was previously more than US$3,300.
The transaction price of some star cards has even been nearly halved. In October this year, "2019-20 Panini One And One Timeless Moments Anthony Davis 1/25" was sold for RMB 7,623 in China, and the latest auction price on eBay was US$510 (contract RMB 3,650).
Shang Qi believes that "people who play star cards with a gambling mentality overlap with those who gamble on football during the World Cup. The capital that should be invested in star cards flows into the World Cup betting prize pool, which will cause price fluctuations of cards."
Capital has followed suit, and star cards will return to their collection nature.
In addition to individual investors, institutional capital is also rushing into the star card track.
In the international market, Fanatics, an established sports e-commerce company, received US$350 million in financing just one month after establishing its star card company. At the beginning of this year, the company acquired Topps, an established player card business issuer, for 500 million yuan.
At the same time, there are also institutions on the market that focus on investing in star cards. A star card investment institution called Attic Investments collects cards from the market and also establishes a fund with star card dealers that focuses on investing in unopened star card boxes or sets. According to market analysis, from the launch of the project in February 2020 to the end of last year, the return rate exceeded 300%.
Another Alt company directly launched a star card asset securitization trading platform. The operating model is similar to the sneaker trading platform GOAT. It treats star cards as futures , providing transaction reference data such as price changes and genuine endorsements for buyers and sellers.
China’s domestic capital has also become a rising star. At the beginning of this year, Katao, a domestic star card trading platform, received strategic investment from Yaoji Technology , a listed company. Yaoji Technology's main business includes playing card manufacturers, and it also owns multiple mobile games such as "Fingertip Fishing" and "Xiaomei Landlord". Another similar platform, Fansmao, received two rounds of financing from Yaowei Capital and Liansu Tangzhu within one year.
Times Finance has learned that some sneaker dealers have invested in the star card market because the sneaker market has been cold. An insider revealed, "Since last year, we have gradually allocated 15-30% of the funds originally invested in the field of sneakers to invest in the field of star cards. We can earn the difference through buying and selling star cards, acting as auction agents, assisting with ratings, etc., and the profit margin can be stabilized at 60%."
professional platform On the other hand, Fansmao, a one-stop trading platform for star cards, once disclosed that its online platform has achieved nearly 1 billion GMV in less than 2 years since its official launch; Yaoji Technology also disclosed that Katao's GMV exceeded 600 million yuan in 2021, and has grown by more than 300% year-on-year compared to .
Vivia bluntly told Times Finance, "Investors pay more attention to growth. Although the existing domestic market is emerging, competition is becoming saturated." As there are more and more relevant platforms, traffic is being eaten up, and the growth rate of existing business areas is no longer enough to attract more attention.
She believes that when the market bubble fades, the industry will soon face competition in the existing market. In the future, the core logic of the star card business is to seize the emotional connection between fans and sports, fans and sports stars, and return to the essence of collection. The core users of star cards are still those players who will not sell cards for the purpose of increasing prices or adding value. Times Finance noticed that Fansmao is also changing its existing business model and trying to shift its focus to card issuance.
Star card issued by Vans Cat. Image source: Photo provided by interviewee
Regarding the future growth and development of the industry, Vivia bluntly stated that the industry is in urgent need of standardization and transparency. "Blind boxes have been developing rapidly for many years, but relevant industry policies and regulations have been introduced recently. Star cards are an emerging product in China and have many problems. However, through self-media, real enthusiasts, consumers, merchants, and issuers are also educating the market. I hope this industry will get better and better in terms of scale and quality in the future."
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