According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, the crude oil change rate as of September 5 was 3.33%, with the average price of reference oil types of US$95.44, and the corresponding increase of domestic gasoline and diesel by 190 yuan/ton.

Pengpai News reporter Yang Yang

refined oil prices will usher in the first increase in the second half of the year. Tracking data from several commodity information institutions shows that the new round of refined oil price adjustment window that opened at 24:00 on September 6 is likely to increase.

According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, the crude oil change rate as of September 5 was 3.33%, with the average price of reference oil types of US$95.44, and the corresponding increase of domestic gasoline and diesel by 190 yuan/ton. Zhuochuang Information data monitoring model also shows the same amplitude adjustment, with an increase of 190 yuan/ton converted into a price increase, corresponding to the increase of No. 92 gasoline, and both No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel rose by 0.16 yuan/liter.

After this round of increase is implemented, the "five consecutive declines" of domestic refined oil price adjustment in 2022 ended. In most areas, the price increase of diesel No. 0 will return to the 8 yuan era, and in some areas, the price increase of No. 95 gasoline No. 95 will return to above 9 yuan. is calculated based on the capacity of the 50 liters of the fuel tank of an ordinary household car. If you fill a tank of oil, you may spend about 7 more yuan.

International crude oil prices have fluctuated widely recently, and the upward expectations have gone through a process of gradual narrowing. Zhuochuang Information Finished Oil analyst Wang Xueqin recalled that in the early stage of this pricing cycle, although the Iranian nuclear negotiations have been underway, boosted by the remarks of Saudi Arabia's production cuts, crude oil prices are firm and fluctuating and rising, driving the crude oil change rate to fluctuate and rise within the positive range. But Iraq will expand oil exports to Europe, and the output policy is unclear. At the same time, the central bank meeting continued to tighten, and the economic data of many countries such as Europe and the United States declined, which led to a rapid decline in crude oil prices from high levels. The news side was negative, dragging the crude oil change rate to fluctuate from the positive high and to fall back.

According to Pengpai News , the retail price limit for refined oil has undergone 16 adjustments since 2022, including 10 increases and 6 decreases. After the rise and fall, the cumulative prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 1,405 yuan/ton and 1,350 yuan/ton respectively this year, equivalent to 1.1 yuan, 1.17 yuan and 1.15 yuan per liter of gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel rose by 1.1 yuan, 1.17 yuan and 1.15 yuan per liter of gasoline. After the "five consecutive declines" started in late June, the cumulative declines of gasoline and diesel were 1,315 and 1,270 yuan respectively, which is equivalent to the reduction of 1.03 yuan, 1.09 yuan and 1.08 yuan per liter of gasoline, 92 yuan, 95 yuan and 0 diesel were respectively lowered. As oil prices restart, the cost of oil use by car owners will increase.

looks forward to the future market, Zhongyu Information crude oil analyst Sun Yanan believes that internationally, the deteriorating economic performance will continue to curb bullish confidence, which may lead to a downward correction of the crude oil price center in the next cycle. However, the structural shortage in the market has not changed substantially in the short term, and the probability of continuing to decline sharply is relatively low. Jinlianchuang analyst Lu Qiaohui said that the recent turbulent situation in oil-producing countries has made crude oil supply full of variables, supporting oil prices to a certain extent. However, the policy of continuing hikes in various economies will limit the rise in oil prices, and international crude oil may fluctuate strongly.

At a time when multiple factors are fighting, the intention of OPEC+ to intervene in the market is very obvious.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries held the 32nd ministerial meeting on September 5 on September 5, deciding to restore the October output of OPEC+ oil-producing countries to August level, that is, to reduce the average daily output of October by 100,000 barrels. This is the first time that major oil-producing countries have cut their monthly output since August 2021. OPEC+ is composed of OPEC led by Saudi Arabia and 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by Russia. After the announcement, international oil prices short-term rose.

OPEC+ usually holds ministerial meetings every month to determine the output target for the next month. However, at this meeting, the participating countries requested the chairman to consider convening ministerial meetings at any time when necessary to respond to changes in the crude oil market.

Senior editor of this issue Xingtan