Qianjiang Evening News·Hourly News Reporter Wang Yanping
Two and a half months later, early this morning, the US dollar fell below the 7 mark against the offshore RMB. As of 9:00 am this morning, the US dollar fell back to 6.9815 against the offshore RMB, a drop of 377 points.
Since April this year, the US dollar has experienced two rapid rises against the RMB. Taking the offshore RMB as an example, this year it started from the lowest level of around 6.3 and rose to 7.3745 on October 25, with a maximum increase of 10,685 points, and 's increase of 16.94%. For the families of international students, if they exchange 10,000 US dollars, it would be equivalent to spending more than 10,000 yuan.
However, starting from the end of October, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB trend has been falling downward. Hourly News reporters also reminded on the day when the US dollar plummeted on November 5 that the risk of buying the US dollar is greater than the opportunity.
As for why the US dollar has weakened continuously recently, it is first related to the Fed rate hike , which is expected to slow down. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year, both significantly lower than general market expectations. Among them, core CPI peaked year-on-year and fell to 6.3%, which is the first time that the growth rate of core CPI has declined since this year. This has finally greatly alleviated the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates. Before this, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for six consecutive times this year, and the last four times have been 75 basis points. Such a rare interest rate hike is to curb high inflation.
The latest number of new non-farm employment in the United States in November was also better than market expectations. At present, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in December. Market analysts believe that the final rate hike is expected to fall, and in the second half of next year, the Federal Reserve is expected to enter the rate cut channel. After all, "putting a strong medicine" is a double-edged sword. Although it can curb inflation, its impact on the economy cannot be ignored. Moreover, such an impact generally has a lag process and will not necessarily be reflected immediately.
Secondly, judging from the performance of the index , the highest was 114.79 on September 28, while the lowest last Friday fell to 104.37, a drop of 9.08%, indicating that the US dollar has seen a sharp decline against non-US major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen. Another major factor in the sharp decline of the US dollar against the RMB is that China's economy is expected to accelerate its recovery. After three years of test of the epidemic, domestic epidemic prevention policies are being continuously optimized, and the market expects China's economy to accelerate recovery, thus providing strong support for the RMB.
Next, what is the trend of the US dollar against RMB exchange rate ? For international students, when is it more appropriate to exchange foreign exchange?
Xu Min, professor of finance at Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, said that from the end of each year to the beginning of the second year, it is the peak period for Chinese foreign trade enterprises to settle foreign exchange, and demand for the RMB has increased. There have been changes in supply and demand, supporting the RMB. Therefore, for families who need to exchange foreign exchange, a good time to exchange foreign exchange is coming soon.
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