affected by the differences of opinions of the Fed interest rate hike committee members, the US dollar index weakened, driving the domestic futures market to stop rising and repair, the operating sentiment of spot market has declined, and the progress of terminal projects is affected by the weather, procurement demand is weak, but macro favorable policies have gradually been implemented, the purchase restrictions in the real estate market are relaxed, and the enthusiasm for market investment has increased. At the same time, iron ore and coke have risen, steel companies' ex-factory prices have risen sharply, merchants' restocking situation has increased, how is the steel market's later trend? Let's listen to the detailed analysis of analyst ...
Influence factors of steel market
01
hike rate entered the deep water area, and the opinions of the committee members showed differences
well-known American macro journalist and Nick Timilaus, known as the "New Federal Reserve News Agency", (Nick Timiraos) published the latest article on Monday, focusing on the divisions and struggles faced by the Federal Reserve before the last rate hike this year.
Analysts' view: The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike meeting in December was scheduled. The Federal Reserve must not only avoid inadequate interest rate hikes and trigger rekindled inflation, but also avoid policies causing unnecessary economic pain. Hawks and doves collided fiercely. If interest rate hikes meet expectations, capital investment expectations will strengthen, and futures are boosted and pushed up, driving the price of commodity , which is good for the rebound of steel prices. On the contrary, it suppresses the price increase and is currently in the stage of volatility recovery and waiting for the final result.
02
11 Loan scale rebounded sharply in November, and social financing doubled month-on-month
Data released by the People's Bank of China showed that RMB loans increased by 1.21 trillion yuan in November. Among them, household loans increased by 262.7 billion yuan, and loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 883.7 billion yuan in November, both of which were better than October. In addition, the increase in social financing scale in November was 1.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 1082.1 billion yuan compared with 907.9 billion yuan in October, an increase of nearly 120%.
analysts' opinion: With the relaxation of epidemic control, boosting economic development has become the top priority. Although the growth rate of M2 hit a new high in recent years that month, the divergence between M2 and M1 ( narrow currency ) reflects that the current situation is insufficient consumption willingness and the rise in preventive savings. The policy of stabilizing growth is still needed in the later stage. The macro favorable policies may continue to increase their efforts to consolidate the economic stability and upward trend, which is beneficial to steel prices.
03
129 CPI 29 CPI growth narrowed, 25 CPI returned to the "1 era"
National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in November 2022, and the year-on-year CPI increase in 29 provinces was lower than last month. Among them, Xinjiang rose by 2.9%, Shaanxi rose by 1.0%, and 25 places returned to the "1 era". National CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase fell significantly compared with October, and returned to the "1 era" after 7 months.
analyst's view: Affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic, the scope of control in many places has been increased, coupled with high-speed lockdown, logistics and transportation are not smooth, overall residents' consumption was restricted in November, and 25 places returned to the "1 era". In addition, due to the cold wave, winter is in the traditional consumption off-season, and the overall market transaction is not smooth, and the same is true for the steel industry. The progress of the project has slowed down, most of them have entered the final stage, and terminal procurement volume has declined, which is negative for the steel price trend.
Market price
01
futures volatility repair
13 rebar main force fell 11, closing at 3937, a drop of 0.28%; the main force of hot coil fell 15, closing at 4032, a drop of 0.37%; the main force of coking coal rose 17, closing at 1938, a gain of 0.88%; the main force of coking coal rose 35, closing at 2940.5, a drop of 1.18%; the main force of coking coal rose 1.5, closing at 808.5, a drop of 0.19%.
02
Steel factory owner stable adjustment
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 25 steel mills have adjusted prices today, of which:
has been raised by 5, accounting for 20%, with a price adjustment range of 30-300 yuan/ton;
has been downgraded by 7, accounting for 28%, with a price adjustment range of 10-30 yuan/ton;
has been downgraded by 13, accounting for 52%.
Angang From January to February 2023, the price of medium plate rose by 150, the price of hot rolling rose by 200, the price of cold rolling rose by 200, the price of galvanizing rose by 200, the price of aluminum-galvanizing rose by 200, and the price of pickling rose by 300.
Bensteel 2023-2 hot-rolled coil price rose by 200, galvanizing price rose by 200, cold hard price rose by 200, pickling price rose by 300, and silicon steel price rose by 200.
Shagang has increased the overall scrap steel price by 80 yuan/ton from December 13, 2022.
03
spot is stable individual rise and fall
Zhonggang.com APP data shows:
Building materials 24 markets, 3 markets rose 10-30, 3 markets fell 10-20, rebar 20mmHRB4 The average price of 00E is 3993 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the 524 markets of
hot coil 24 markets, 2 markets rose 30-50, 6 markets fell 10-20, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the 523 markets of
medium-thick plates , 3 markets rose 10-70, 2 markets fell 10-20, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium-roll plates is 4160 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
steel price forecast
st State Council joint prevention and control mechanism December 13 (Tuesday) held a press conference on key groups health management to guide the public to prevent the epidemic Protect and get out of the epidemic area as soon as possible and restore the development of the national economy. At the same time, the early macroeconomic favorable policies are gradually implemented, iron ore and coke support at the cost end are strong, and steel production costs and steel mill ex-factory price policies have enhanced the guiding role of the current steel price trend. At the same time, the country vigorously advocates the restoration of economic development. Many major projects are expected to be implemented in the later stage, expand market investment expectations, and merchants' replenishment sentiment is driven. is expected to mainly stabilize and individually rise in the short term.
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