Former German Chancellor Merkel mentioned the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in an interview and said that the war will definitely end. At the same time, Merkel also put forward a premise. Judging from the current Russian behavior, Merkel's predictions are likely to come true.
(Merkel has been interviewed many times recently, responding to the criticism of him)
Merkel predicts the ending of Russia and Ukraine: it is necessary to talk about
According to Global Network , Merkel mentioned the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in an interview. When the reporter asked, "How will the Russian-Ukraine war end?" Merkel admitted that she could not give an answer to this question, but she later said that "One day, this conflict will end at the negotiating table" and once again emphasized the words "end at the negotiating table". In short, Merkel believes that negotiations are the only possibility to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and should be frank and friendly negotiations. Merkel said that friendly and open dialogue is different from compulsory peace.
"Forced Peace" can be understood as two meanings, one is secret negotiation, and the stronger party will naturally have more say. The other is open negotiations, and the party with more supporters is more confident. Judging from the current situation, the premise pointed out by Merkel is very important, which is also the key to the success of the negotiations.
(In 2021, Putin and Merkel were in Kremlin )
In fact, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Merkel has been avoiding talking about related topics in public because the West has strongly criticized Merkel. It is reported that some people accused Merkel of treating Putin too moderately, and others questioned that it was Merkel's foreign policy, which indirectly led to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and even remarks of "making Merkel apologize" appeared on foreign social media. Especially after Europe fell into the energy crisis, Merkel, who promoted the construction of the " Nord Stream-2" pipeline, was even labeled as "making Europe overly dependent on Russian energy."
In the interview, Merkel also refuted these accusations, saying that during his tenure, he made a lot of efforts to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and that these efforts did not take effect did not mean that he was wrong. Merkel also said that promoting the Minsk Agreement has bought time for Ukraine.
(Merkel introduced Putin in Minsk, Belarus in 2015)
It is worth mentioning that although Merkel has been criticized for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, his foreign policy in other aspects is still highly praised. The European Foreign Relations Commission conducted a poll, and data showed that most Europeans believed that Germany under Merkel could serve as the spokesperson for Europe. It can be seen that Merkel's political ability has been recognized by most people. The predictions made by such a powerful former leader are to a certain extent credible.
The West is considering negotiations, and Russia takes a step
Whether Russia and Ukraine are negotiating has become a "pain point" for Western countries: if we don't talk, conflicts are easy to escalate. If we want to talk, all parties will not cooperate. At the same time, this is not in line with the consensus of the West. But as the situation continues to intensify, some countries have begun to change their attitudes.
(French President Macron delivered a speech in Louisiana )
Some time ago, Macron said during his visit to the United States that the West should consider giving Russia security guarantees and expressed his willingness to talk to Putin. Macron said the West needs to be prepared and need to know how to provide these guarantees for Russia when it returns to the negotiating table. Biden also said that if Russia really wants to end the conflict, it is willing to talk to Putin. It can be seen that the Western side's attitude towards this topic is gradually softening.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, sanctions against Russia have become one of the consensus between the United States and Europe. Russia has repeatedly accused "The West does not allow Ukraine to negotiate with Russia." But as the conflict intensified, all parties suffered losses.Ukraine has been devastated due to Russia's crackdown on infrastructure. Russia is likely to face a regression in development due to the economic sanctions initiated by the West and the losses on the battlefield. The United States and Europe are also powerless to continue to assist Ukraine. The CEO of the United States Raytheon Technology Company said a few days ago that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict consumed a large amount of US arms supplies, and the inventory of javelin anti-tank missiles and stinger missiles was almost exhausted. There are also the increasingly serious inflation problems and energy crisis in Europe, which are related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
(Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Riabkov at the press conference)
The above situation means that continuing to fight will not benefit all parties. Russian political scholar Bajioko told the media that the reason why the US attitude has changed will require Ukraine to send some negotiation signals is because the United States has lost confidence in defeating Russia. Of course, Russia has also taken certain response measures to ease its attitude towards the West.
According to the Global Network, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said that Russia does not want diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia to be interrupted, but he also emphasized that the two sides need equal dialogue, so Russia will not make unilateral concessions. Compared with previous attitudes, Russia has taken the first step this time, which will undoubtedly add some room to negotiations. After all, a few months ago, Biden openly stated that the US-Russia relations were completely broken. Now that Russia has sent out a signal of continuing dialogue, Biden may make a statement with the flow. At that time, it depends on how Zelensky chooses.
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