It has been more than nine months since the military conflict between the two sides broke out. It is not far from the day when the eastern part of Ukraine is covered with snow and the days when the ground is frozen are completely frozen.

It has been more than 9 months since the outbreak of military conflict between the two sides. It is not far from the day when the eastern part of Ukraine is covered with snow and the days when the ground is completely frozen. There are two predictions for the current development trend of conflict: First, after entering the cold winter, the two sides will enter a period of truce and confrontation, and the intensity of battlefield confrontation will significantly decrease; Second, as the road surface and the surface are completely frozen, the troubles that restrict the maneuverability of both sides will be completely lifted, and a large-scale war of tank and armor forces will occur next, and there will be major changes in the front lines of both sides. Most people think the latter is more likely. However, the muddy traffic in the war zone is still continuing, and the Russian and Ukrainian armies are still competing for the Kharkiv and Donetsk fronts. NATO data shows that in the direction of Bachmut, the Ukrainian army alone deployed nine combat brigades. Military experts believe that Bachmut, a small town with only 70,000 people, will be recorded in the history of world wars because of this bloody battle that lasted for more than nine months.

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Both sides suffered heavy casualties in Bachmut. Due to long-term shelling, almost all buildings in the city were in ruins. The Ukrainian military deployed thousands of snipers (excellent shooters) in these ruins, as well as a large number of anti-tank missiles teams. It is obvious that this urban street battle cannot end in the near future. Moreover, two days ago, Ukraine sent two more brigades to Bachmut, including an artillery brigade, responsible for strengthening firepower suppression of the Russian army and DPR militia forces. Before this, Russia carried out "partial military mobilization", and after the resumption of more than 300,000 reserve soldiers were re-trained, they were supplemented in batches to the Donbass frontline. NATO's comprehensive analysis believes that Russia's winter combat preparations have been completed. In addition to the replenishment of troops, more than 1,500 new tanks have also been deployed. At the same time, the Ukrainian military also expanded its troops through the sixth round of military mobilization. The winter decisive battle is imminent, and the current military situation between the two sides is particularly eye-catching.

Russia: After the outbreak of the conflict, Russia has successively invested more than 170,000 troops, plus more than 320,000 people who "partial military mobilization" not long ago, the total force exceeds 500,000. NATO implied that as Russia's military alliance, Belarus still has 100,000 troops, but it is a variable bargaining chip and is estimated to be unlikely to participate in the war. Ukraine: The composition of troops is divided into two parts. One is the Ukrainian regular army, with 260,000 people before the war, 450,000 people in six rounds of military mobilization, and 200,000 losses on the battlefield (injuries and casualties and missing), and currently there are about 500,000. In this regard, the current forces between Russia and Ukraine are equally strong. However, Ukraine also has militia organizations, the Land Defense Battalion and the Foreign Mercenary , with a total of about 250,000 people. This means that Ukraine currently has 250,000 more troops than the Russian army. Judging from the data on the comparison of forces, Ukraine has a clear advantage, but NATO believes that the current situation of the Ukrainian army is not good.

First of all, NATO believes that the Ukrainian army is facing a shortage of weapons and ammunition. This view has been recognized by the Ukrainian defenders in Bachmut. The Ukrainian front line commander complained that it was impossible to expect the 800-kilometer supply line to remain unblocked to ensure that Ukrainian soldiers always have sufficient ammunition in their hands. However, the "Ukraine is facing a shortage of weapons and ammunition" mentioned by NATO is not the difficulty in supplying supplies on the front line, but the NATO, Ukraine's rear ammunition arsenal, is almost exhausted. NATO has collected almost all the Soviet-Russian weapons and ammunition in the world. Now, NATO has to consider providing Ukraine with weapons and equipment for the US-European technical system, but the two problems that accompanies it is the increase in aid costs in geometric multiples and the difficulty in connecting Ukrainian soldiers with NATO weapons. Especially the latter, within the NATO equipment system, whether it is American weapons or European weapons, the Ukrainian army needs to undergo long-term training to grasp it.

ammunition shortage occurred in the Ukrainian front line

Secondly, NATO experts believe that Russia's rapidly expanding long-range strike artillery and battlefield drone forces will completely make up for the gap in Russian troops. Ukraine obtained Himas rocket launcher , M777 howitzer and self-propelled artillery from European countries all experienced malfunctions and combat losses to varying degrees. These failures and combat losses cannot be repaired and repaired independently by Ukrainian soldiers. The biggest problem with the Ukrainian army at present is that the combat effectiveness of frontline soldiers is extremely low due to insufficient military training. NATO acknowledged that the pre-war training they provided for Ukrainian military mobilization forces all came from NATO COIN (anti-insurgency) combat subjects, and the COIN subjects expected to be mostly "non-state forces" and "guerrillas". These predetermined forces are simply incomparable to the large-scale Russian army with numerous heavy weapons and artillery. In addition, the Ukrainian training course did not undergo the original 6-month course training. The assault troops' officers and soldiers ended for about 20 days, while ordinary infantry finished class after 14 days of training.