Last night, an important data from the United States was released. After the seasonal adjustment in November, the non-farm employment increased by 263,000, and the market expectation was 200,000, and the previous value was 261,000. This data exceeded market expectations. The data reflects that The US employment market is still hot and the economy is still strong.
In addition, the US unemployment rate in November was 3.7%, which was in line with market expectations. The previous value was also 3.7%. There is no obvious increase trend for the time being. The unemployment rate is still at a relatively low level .
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Data shows that the US employment market is still hot, and the unemployment rate has not increased significantly. economic crisis did not appear because of the rapid and significant interest rate hike , This also adds confidence to Feder further hike . The probability of the United States achieving a soft landing this time is higher.
I have also told you the principle before, raising interest rates is equivalent to putting the brakes on the economy and curbing economic development. The better the non-farm data and the lower the unemployment rate, it means the better the economic recovery. At least there are no major problems and can hold on to further interest rate hikes.
So, after this non-agricultural data came out, the market was a little scared, and the market was afraid that the Fed would see that the economic data was not bad and became more hawkish.
data just came out of futures and began to plummet . The three major stock indexes all opened low a lot, but after returning to rationality, the three major stock indexes finally pulled back a lot, and the Dow Jones turned out to be 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq only fell slightly in the end.
In fact, although the non-agricultural data exceeded market expectations, the previous value was 261,000, and now it is 263,000, which has not increased much. Obviously, the forecast of 200,000 is a bit too pessimistic. The unemployment rate of 3.7% is also in line with market expectations. should not change the current trend .
The Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting will take place on December 15. According to Powell himself, it is almost certain that html will slow down interest rate hikes in November. The market believes that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in December will reach 78.2% .
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This is likely to not change due to the quality of non-agricultural data and the quality of unemployment rate. The most likely thing that can be changed is only the terminal interest rate , and whether Powell will be more hawkish or dovey when he speaks at the press conference.
Inflation data for November will be released 13 days before the rate hike, with the previous value being 7.7%. Even though it has fallen sharply compared to the highest 9.1% data, it is still quite far from the 2% target of the Federal Reserve.
So, now the market generally believes that the rate hike will gradually decrease afterwards, but the number of interest rate hikes will increase. Finally, the interest rate level of will be maintained after reaching a 5% level (previously expected to be 4.6%) until inflation returns to the normal level of 2%.
This means that it is possible to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.5% in December, and raise interest rates by 25 basis points in February and March next year, and then maintain until the second half of the year.
OK, the situation is basically introduced to everyone, and the logic is basically explained clearly, not too complicated, and not so difficult to understand. Finally, let me talk about my views and subsequent operations, which are divided into short-term and medium-term, and operations are also divided into fixed investment and large-scale increase in .
For the short term, the market may still be mainly fluctuating until the end of interest rate hikes on the 15th, because there will still be a data full of uncertainty waiting to be announced on the 13th. If inflation can drop significantly compared to 7.7, it will be a major benefit for US stock . If the decline is not much compared to 7.7, the Federal Reserve will most likely let the hawks out to scare the market at the press conference of the subsequent interest rate meeting.
In the short term, it is a bit risky to increase positions significantly in the past two weeks, but you can participate in the form of fixed investment. Many friends have been insisting on fixed investment since the high point. Now in such a position, we should increase the intensity of fixed investment and stick to it.
In the long run, the US stock market is more optimistic in the future. It can be said that the most difficult time for US stocks is about to pass. The reason is relatively simple:
1. The trend of the US dollar index was changed. It was previously the unilateral rise in trend of , but now it has also been destroyed. It is very likely that it will show a wave of fluctuating downward trend in the future, which is good for risk assets.
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2. The interest rate hike will gradually slow down, and it is basically about to form a consensus. Just wait patiently until the 15th and finally confirm again. The future expectations are gradually improving.
3. Take the Nasdaq, which has performed the weakest in the US stock market recently, as an example. After the html January line level fell to the 60-month support line, it closed for two consecutive months with the KDJ at the monthly level. This is a very good signal for the long-term trend change.
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Nasdaq is the case, not to mention the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Dow Jones is about to completely recover lost ground, and a new high is just around the corner...
US stocks have relatively potential in the long run. At present, at least 10% of the position will be involved. Moreover, if you can tolerate short-term fluctuations, it is more suitable to build some long-term positions and hold them for a long time.
I am currently at a position of more than 10%, not aggressive, and avoid missing the opportunity, and insist on weekly fixed investment.
My operation is for sharing only and is for your reference only. As for how to participate, please make your own decision. Only you can be responsible for your own money.
As for what should I invest in US stocks? Dow Jones does not track fund in China, and cannot invest.
According to historical experience, it is not recommended to have a monotonous one, and there is no need to invest in a single U.S. stock industry. Just use the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to invest in a combination.
Nasdaq 100 Index , there are 18 tracking funds off the market, I invested in the GF one (006479). Everyone can also choose according to their preferences, and it may not be consistent with me.
If you want to invest in the field, you can invest in the Nasdaq ETF. There are two in total, one in the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the other in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. You can invest in any of them, namely 513100 and 159941 respectively.
S&P 500, there are 4 off-market tracking funds. I invested in the Boshi (005079). After all, index funds are not much different in the long run, so you can choose any of them.
If you want to invest in the market, there are 4 options for you. You can bid for the P500 ETF (513500), with a moderate scale and better liquidity.
In addition, I hope to remind investors on the market that whether it is the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, the fund's underlying goods are all in the US stock market.
funds are trading in the A-share market, following the opening time of A-share , but the underlying object is US stocks, and following the opening time of US stocks, it is our evening.
So, it contains some prediction components. Generally speaking, the trend of the ETF on the day will also take into account the performance of the US stock market the night before and the trend of the stock index futures that day, of course, it will also be affected by investor sentiment on the day.
For example, if the Nasdaq rose 3% last night, then the Nasdaq ETF is likely to open higher today. However, at this time, the market will also refer to the Nasdaq Futures Index and other news factors to guess how it will perform tonight.
If the market predicts that the US stock market will fall by 1% tonight, then the Nasdaq ETF may eventually rise by 2%, rather than 3%.
will be more complicated in the game than off-field shooting, and there will be more factors to consider. I hope this will remind everyone, and it will definitely be more complicated than the examples I gave above.
For example, the US stock market rose 3% last night, and the Nasdaq ETF also opened a lot higher today, but today, A-shares performed particularly poorly, and the market sentiment was bad to freezing point, and market sentiment will also be transmitted, and of course it will more or less affect the trend of the Nasdaq ETF.
If you want to invest in the market, I hope you can study the principles, including what the index of discount premium means and how to read it.
must be learned and understood before participating, otherwise you will be confused as you invest.
But if you are a long-term investor, the long-term trend of the Nasdaq ETF will still be highly consistent with the Nasdaq 100 index.
But at the same time, I also need to remind you that when investing in US stocks, you must also take into account the exchange rate factors.
For example, the US stocks you invested in rose 3% today, but the exchange rate market has ushered in large fluctuations today, the US dollar has depreciated, and the RMB has appreciated, so your holdings of US stocks are also considered US dollar assets. Is it a discount when you convert it into RMB to calculate the rate of return ? Therefore, when you update the yield, it may be much less than 3% when you update it.
Of course, if the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates, the return will be higher than the index when it is updated.
The views and knowledge shared today are helpful to everyone.
OK, let’s talk about so much today. At the end of the article, I need to make another disclaimer: All the above analysis content is just my personal speculation, which does not mean that the facts must be like this, and it may not be correct. It is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market.
Combination of investment and research, arming the mind, and smart investment. I am FIRE fixed investment/Harman. I hope my articles and videos can accompany you to go further on the investment road and we will move forward all the way.
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