In the past three trading days, international gold prices have seen violent rises, rising from US$1,737 to the highest level yesterday at $1,818.
A large amount of funds previously flowed out of gold ETF now have the need to to supplement , and central banks in various countries are also working hard to increase their holdings.
It seems that gold has investment value again.
. Another data also shows that among the mainstream domestic assets this year, gold denominated in RMB has significantly outperformed other assets.
Is it really a good opportunity to buy gold now?
01
In fact, the sharp rise in international gold prices in the past three trading days is just a continuation of the previous rise.
's real rise is back to early November, when the international gold price fell to $1,618.3 per ounce at its lowest level, and a rapid rise started from this position. From
to November 15, the highest was $1,791, but the price of gold fell for five consecutive days in the following days.
But now it seems that this is just a slight adjustment, because the gold price soon ushered in a rapid rise in the past three days and rose again to above $1,800.
Since the international gold price exceeded US$2,000 in March this year. The current wave of rebound is the largest rebound, and it also exceeds the stage highs of previous rebounds.
From the perspective of technical form , gold does have the possibility of rising.
02
On the other hand, it comes from the inspiration of demand.
In the past, the gold price continued to fall, the largest gold ETF in the world continued to reduce its holdings, but recently, the unilateral reduction has become two-way fluctuations, and funds have begun to clearly see the return of funds.
Because the dollar index is volatile, this means that one of the important factors that suppress the rise in gold prices is slowly weakening, so international funds also have a need to replenish gold positions.
. The data provided by the World Gold Organization also proves that central banks around the world are now unprecedentedly motivated to increase their holdings of gold reserves. In the third quarter of this year, the total net gold purchases of central banks set the highest quarterly record.
The above factors seem to indicate that gold still has the possibility of continuing to rise.
03
In addition, we also see from some data that most of the mainstream domestic investment channels have seen a significant decline since this year, but gold has won the championship of profits.
Let’s look at the stock market first. Whether it is html
. In terms of foreign exchange market , the RMB's exchange rate also showed a certain decline against the US dollar, and the decline against a basket of currencies was also close to 10%.
Domestic Commodity index also fell 4%.
The main investment channels for obtaining positive returns include money funds and domestic RMB bonds, but the yield rate is not as good as gold denominated in RMB, and has risen by 9% this year.
However, it seems that the most impact on gold is still the interest rate hike of the US dollar. Moreover, when the rate hike of the US dollar decreases, the cycle of interest rate hikes has been extended, so this is a big uncertain factor.
04
At the same time, investors should still pay attention to the fact that although the price of gold denominated in US dollars rebounded slightly, it is still in a decline overall.
, however, the price of gold denominated in RMB has risen slightly, because the RMB is also depreciating, so when we invest, we need to consider which currency you are investing.
Finally, investors should not try high-leverage gold investment easily. For most investors, paper gold or gold theme fund may be a better choice.
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