South Korea faces three major crises: exchange rate plummeting, trade deficit and stock market sluggish. A famous and famous mouth on the island reminded the Taiwan authorities that if the semiconductor highland is not maintained, the same situation will also happen to Taiwan, so that there is no need to fight between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan will be defeated.
According to China Business News Network, the exchange rate of the South Korean won against the US dollar has reached the brink of 1300:1. Coupled with South Korea's trade deficit for several months and its continued sluggish stock market, South Korea, known as the "economic canary", is facing severe "three major crises". After seeing the situation in South Korea, Xie Jinhe, a famous celebrity on the island, discovered an abnormality. He pointed out that Taiwan should also be vigilant, especially to defend the semiconductor highland. Otherwise, once the mainland achieves a breakthrough in the semiconductor field, Taiwan's trade surplus with the mainland will also become an deficit like South Korea. There is no need to fight between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and Taiwan will only have to declare failure economically and accept the reality of cross-strait unification.
Xie Jinhe's analysis makes some sense. South Korea's economy relies on export trade and is a barometer of global economic and trade, so it is also called the "economic canary". As an export power, it has experienced a deficit for several consecutive months. There are two main reasons for this situation. On the one hand, South Korea lacks natural resources, and both raw materials and commodity are very dependent on imports. With the continuous rise of global commodity prices, it has quickly raised inflation in South Korea. On the other hand, the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against the Korean won has led to the rising cost of South Korea's purchase of raw materials in the international market.
For South Korea, deepening cooperation with China can effectively alleviate the crisis because the Chinese and Korean markets have certain complementarity. But South Korea chose the opposite direction. During the NATO summit, South Korea threatened to "economic decoupling" with China. If South Korea does this, there is no doubt that the crisis facing South Korea will become increasingly serious.
The situation in Taiwan has many similarities with that in South Korea. 98% of Taiwan's energy resources rely on imports. As can be seen from the fact that Taiwan still has a trade surplus of US$23 billion in the first five months, Taiwan is also suffering from imported inflation caused by soaring commodity prices. Last year, most of the trade surplus between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, which was more than 100 billion yuan, came from the semiconductor field. That's why Xie Jinhe said that if the mainland achieves a breakthrough in the semiconductor field, Taiwan's surplus with the mainland will instantly become a deficit. In addition, the global inflation wave is coming, Taiwan's economic development will stagnate, and the chance of cross-strait reunification will greatly increase.
The Taiwan authorities naturally know this, so they have introduced a number of policies and even so-called "bills" to restrict the flow of semiconductor companies and talents to the mainland in order to maintain their advantages over the mainland in the semiconductor field. However, this trick of the Taiwan authorities may have little effect, because according to insiders, in the semiconductor field, the Taiwan authorities cannot provide enough benefits, and relying so-called "bills" alone, it is impossible to prevent the loss of talents.
More importantly, if the mainland wants to achieve breakthroughs in the semiconductor field, it does not rely on technical talents from Taiwan. According to the latest data released by TrendForce Consulting, mainland China accounts for a total share of the global semiconductor foundry market exceeding 10.2%, and is increasing at an extremely fast speed, which shows that the development trend of the mainland semiconductor industry is improving.
In the long run, it is entirely possible for mainland China to achieve breakthroughs in the semiconductor field. First of all, the transfer of mid- and low-end semiconductor technology is not strictly restricted. Mainland semiconductor foundry companies can earn huge profits by producing 20-nanometer or 30-nanometer chip , and invest this profit in the research and development of chip technology, thus forming a virtuous cycle, effectively alleviating the R&D pressure of semiconductor companies, and attracting more companies to enter the semiconductor industry. In addition, the mainland can also open up new technologies to achieve overtaking on the curve.With the continuous development of social productivity, the mainland's scientific research capabilities have also been greatly improved simultaneously. Although the mainland started late in the semiconductor field, with the strong support of policies, the mainland has a full opportunity to overtake. In the past, China also faced a blockade from the United States in high-end technology fields such as aerospace and supercomputers, but it eventually achieved a qualitative overturn.
Therefore, it is not realistic for the Taiwan authorities to hinder the development of the mainland semiconductor industry by means of despicable means such as restricting talents. In fact, for the mainland, if it really wants to defeat the authorities through economic means, it will be far from such a trouble. Just blocking Taiwan’s island can block the economic operation of Taiwan, and the Taiwan authorities can only compromise with the mainland. However, doing so will also destroy the overall economy of Taiwan and accidentally hurt the interests of Taiwan compatriots, so the mainland will not do so.
Therefore, the Taiwan authorities should not always think about how to compete with the mainland. This will not only not stop the process of unification, but will further intensify tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The only way out is to move towards the mainland. Otherwise, look at the three major crises facing South Korea. At that time, there is no need for mainland troops to send troops, and the Taiwan authorities are defeated.
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