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According to Taiwan media reports, due to high inflationary pressure, interest rate hikes, and mainland epidemic lockdowns and other factors, consumer electronic demand has cooled down significantly, and the quotations of many key electronic components have fallen simultaneously. Among them, the niche DRAM market was hit by the sluggish global consumer electronics buying, and the supply has increased significantly. In addition, Samsung's conversion product line has caused a double hit. The traditional peak season quotes did not rise but fell instead. The industry estimates that it may fall by 13% to 18% compared with the previous quarter. The fourth quarter cannot be stable as expected, and may fall by 11% again. 0%, that is, the cumulative decline of niche DRAM is expected to reach 30% in the second half of the year. It is a category with relatively large correction among all key components. As spot prices and contract prices dive simultaneously, the fortune that related manufacturers made a lot of money last year may "can't go back again."
The industry pointed out that niche DRAM is widely used in consumer electronics, automobiles, Netcom, and handheld terminal products, with DDR3 as the mainstream. Compared with the current DDR4 and DDR5 used in standard DRAM applications, DDR3 capacity and technology The level of technology is relatively low. At this stage, almost all the world of Taiwanese factories. Now terminal applications have shrunk significantly and prices have fallen sharply, which has a relatively large impact on Taiwanese factories.
In addition, it has also been reported recently that South Korea's Samsung Electronics considers the poor market conditions of CMOS image sensors (CIS) and has cut the CIS film volume. In order to maintain a certain level of production line capacity utilization, some CIS production capacity is transferred back to DDR3, resulting in an increase in market supply. However, due to the shrinking demand, Samsung's move has made the market price pressure of niche DRAM more expensive.
The industry has originally viewed the short-term niche DRAM market conservatively, and it is estimated that the price in the third quarter will fall by 10% compared with the second quarter. It was originally expected that as the market inventory has gradually come to an end, the quotation in the fourth quarter is expected to stop stabilizing, but with the terminal market conditions not improving, the market in the fourth quarter may be worse than expected, making the price stable without hope. The overall price decline in the second half of the year is higher than the industry's expectations.
According to the recent quotation of TrendForce, the spot market price in terms of the single-week price in the spot market, DDR3 The 4Gb high and low price difference has a decline of nearly 20%. The industry believes that the contract price and spot price will dive simultaneously this quarter, with a quarterly decline of about 13% to 18%. In addition, Samsung has transferred CIS production capacity back to niche DRAM in order to maintain capacity utilization. Under the interference of multiple adverse factors, the quotation for the fourth quarter may be revised by more than 10%.
Recently, the fundamentals of Taiwanese niche DRAM-related operators have shown signs of fatigue. South Asia Technology's revenue in July fell by more than 16% month-on-month to 4.396 billion yuan, which is also 44.7% over the same period last year. The monthly revenue fell to a low of nearly two and a half years. South Asia Technology admitted that it is not the case in the third quarter. Cost and price are moving in an unfavorable direction, with a high probability of gross profit margin decline and operational challenges. As for the market conditions in the fourth quarter, it depends on whether inflation can be controlled.
Huabang Electronics Chairman Jiao Youjun also said recently that the market conditions are very difficult to judge, and customers continue to wait and see, and their operations in the second half of this year may not be as good as in the first half of the year. Yuchuang's performance in July also reflected the weak market conditions, with a monthly revenue of 357 million yuan, a monthly decrease of 19.7% and a year decrease of 30.8%, a low in the past 17 months; Jinghaoke's revenue in July was also revised to 1.25 billion yuan, a monthly decrease of 23.6% and a year decrease of 42.2%, a new low in the past 23 months.
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