Semiconductor: The delivery time of semiconductor components in December is further extended, and the pressure of DRAM price reduction is easing
12 Semiconductor components in December is further extended. The latest data from Susquehanna Financial Group shows that the delivery period of semiconductor components in December 2021 was extended to 25.8 weeks, an increase of 6 days month-on-month, setting a new high since 2017. The delivery period of almost all categories of products is extending, among which the delivery period of MCU and PMIC is the longest. Meanwhile, delivery situations for some large suppliers are improving, such as Broadcom's December delivery period fell moderately to within 29 weeks.
DRAM price reduction pressure is alleviating . In terms of DDR4, although it is currently in the traditional off-season and terminal demand continues to be weak, the concerns about supply tightening in Xi'an's epidemic continue, and the spot price of DDR4 has begun to rebound. In terms of DDR3, the price is still in a downward trend. As Samsung gradually withdraws from the DDR3 product line and expands CIS shipments, DDR3 is accelerating the transfer of orders to Taiwan factories, and the price adjustment pressure is more optimistic than in the previous period. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, demand will rebound and DRAM demand will gain certain support. If the current situation on the supply side does not change (Xi'an epidemic and Samsung's product line adjustment), the overall decline in DRAM prices in 22Q1 is expected to converge.
Although the current demand for semiconductors has undergone a certain structural differentiation, it is still in a state of high prosperity and tight supply and demand. It is expected that the overall production capacity will remain tight in 2022, and there is still a structural shortage of stocks and price increases. The original existing market demand is stable, and the upgrade of applications such as new energy vehicles, wind power and photovoltaics, 5G, industry, and servers has brought incremental demand, and the content of a single terminal semiconductor has increased. Local Foundry and IDM continue to expand production, undertake domestic Fables transfer and new production capacity demand, and accelerate the localization, and benefit the upstream and downstream links of the industrial chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the following main lines: domestic production (materials, equipment, FPGA, simulation), prosperity (materials, equipment, IGBT, MCU), application upgrade (IGBT, memory interface, CIS, storage).
Consumer Electronics: The three giants compete to promote PC chips, and the e-sports market is expected to maintain the growth trend
CES Electronics Show, the three giants compete to promote new PC chip platforms. (1) Nvidia released the RTX 3090 Ti flagship GPU and released an additional entry-level 3050 series. The latest GPU has been adopted by 160 models. (2) Intel released the latest GPU, and its partners include HP, Dell, Lenovo, Samsung Electronics and Acer, etc., competing with Nvidia. At the same time, Intel is expected to launch 28 new 12 generation products on laptops, using its own 7nm process, with an estimated performance of 40% faster than the 11th generation. (3) AMD released the Radeon RX 6000S, upgraded to the Zen 3+ architecture, adopting 6nm process, supporting DDR5 and Wi-Fi 6E. It is expected that 200 laptops will use this chip this year. In addition, the Zen 4 Ryzen 7000 processor is expected to be released in the second half of 2022, using TSMC's 5nm process. At the CES Electronics Show, laptop brand manufacturers also announced their own product lines equipped with the new platform of the Big Three, focusing on commercial NB and e-sports PC products. We expect that the laptop market shipments will be approximately 220-230 million units in 2022, a slight decline of 5% from 2021. The power of the C-end market to replace the motor weakens, but the e-sports and business markets have the opportunity to maintain the growth trend. At the
CES Electronics Show, Sony released the details of the new generation of VR headset PS VR 2. The PS VR 2 is equipped with a 4K HDR OLED panel with a maximum refresh rate of 120Hz. It uses eye tracking technology and a built-in motor. It only needs to use a connecting cable to cooperate with the PS 5 host. PS VR is expected to enter the mass production stage soon, and domestic manufacturers are responsible for OEM production.
Automotive Electronics: Qualcomm and Mobileye are actively promoting self-driving platforms. In 2024, they will welcome the L4-level autonomous driving model
CES electronics exhibition, and autonomous driving has become the focus of attention. (1) Nvidia announced that it has reached numerous agreements with domestic electric vehicle manufacturers such as Xiaopeng, NIO, Ideal, Zhiyi, R Auto, Polaris, etc. Auto T1 suppliers Desay SV, Flex, Quanta, Valeo, ZF, etc. will also use their own Drive platforms as the platform for autonomous driving car system, and announced that it will achieve US$8 billion in automobile business revenue in the next six years.(2) Qualcomm announced that it would cooperate with Volvo, Honda, Renault and other car manufacturers to actively expand its automotive business, build a Snapdragon automotive digital chassis and Snapdragon Ride visual system, and expand the layout of self-driving cars. Qualcomm pointed out that the Snapdragon Ride platform will officially introduce customers' models in 2024. At the same time, Qualcomm announced and will cooperate with Microsoft to develop AR chips in the metaverse field. (3) Mobileye said that it will launch L4-level self-driving cars through Geely electric vehicle brand Zeekr in 2024, and believes that if autonomous driving wants to enter the consumer market, the cost of sensors and computing power must be reduced to no more than US$5,000. We believe that 2022 will become the first year of intelligence, and autonomous driving will accelerate its development in the next five years and bring opportunities to the industrial chain.
passive component: MLCC inventory digestion is coming to an end, and there is no room for a sharp drop in price
MLCC top three manufacturers have started to reduce production of standard MLCC since 21Q4. The yield rate of Guoju standard MLCC has dropped from 90% to 70~75%. Although Murata and Samsung Motors are still optimistic about the prosperity, they have also reduced production. Against the backdrop of large-scale production cuts, the digestion of standard MLCC inventory is gradually coming to an end and is expected to return to normal levels. Distributor Nitto said that the standard product inventory of clients and manufacturers is expected to be completely digested in late 22Q1, and because the costs of raw materials, electricity prices, labor, etc. remain high, MLCC prices have no room for a sharp drop.
passive components short-term demand is improving marginally, and the overall supply is still tight. In the long run, demand for the Internet of Things, 5G, new energy vehicles, industry, etc. has increased, and the quantity and price of passive components of a single terminal have increased, while domestic production continues to advance. The production capacity of domestic passive components leaders has increased significantly and has been gradually launched in the past two years. The products have expanded to high-end models and high-end applications, which is expected to gain market share improvement and application structure upgrade.
Investment advice
Semiconductor: Design and IDM (Siruipu, Shengbang Co., Ltd., Xinpengwei, Lanqi Technology, Jingchen Co., Ltd., Zhaoyi Innovation), Equipment (Zhichun Technology, China Micro Company, Xinyuan Micro), Materials (Huamao Technology, Shanghai Silicon Industry) FMXC987991127
Consumer Electronics: Changxin Technology, Changying Precision, Luxshare Precision
Automotive Electronics: Dongshan Precision, Dianlian Technology, Lianchuang Electronics, Weier Co., Ltd.
Passive component : Sanhuan Group, Shunluo Electronics, Fenghua Hi-Tech
Risk warning
Sino-US trade/technology friction upgrade risk; 5G application is less than expected; component out of stock causes terminal shipments to be less than expected; risk of rising raw material costs.
The content listed in this article does not constitute investment advice
There is risk in entering the market. Investment should be cautious.
Content source reference: CICC Securities Research
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-