In addition, today is the fifth working day of the pricing cycle of refined oil prices in my country. Some institutions predict that the increase in oil prices will be 7 yuan/ton. Although the increase has increased compared with the previous working day, it is still in the stranded range. Because the oil price forecast for the change of in recent working days is small, the oil price remains stranded. In addition, the recent situation is mainly mainly shaking with narrow range, and there are still 5 working days left before the price adjustment, stranded becomes the mainstream view. Some authoritative people even said that the probability of a new round of oil price adjustment in China is relatively high, because the oil price increase is insufficient in the later period. The specific price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on November 21, 2022, and the 22nd round of price adjustments will be ushered in by then.
Secondly, although there are many bullish signals in the market recently, such as the market expects energy demand to improve, Federal will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, and the significant decline in USD index , etc., these factors have indeed boosted the rebound of international oil prices to a certain extent, but due to the large cumulative decline in oil prices in the early stage, international oil prices have actually fallen a lot after the rise and fall. To be precise, US crude oil fell about 3.48% last week, and Berry Oil fell about 2.4%, which is also the reason why my country's oil price expected to rise slightly. In other words, it is not unreasonable that domestic oil prices are currently in a stranded range.
Of course, while good news in the market has emerged, negative factors still exist. In addition to the concerns about oil demand after the global economic recession, with the arrival of winter, the United States has also entered the flu season early. So far this year, more than 1,300 people have died from influenza, and the new crown epidemic has not yet stopped, especially the number of new cases is also increasing, which may limit the increase in oil prices.
Furthermore, at 21:54 Beijing time, the international oil price of US stocks fell on Monday in the morning, with WTI New York crude oil falling 1.23% to US$87.86 per barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures was lowered 1.09% to US$94.95 per barrel. Obviously, the range oscillation is fully reflected, and oil prices have short factors that fluctuate and pull back to . If international oil prices fell slightly as of the close of the day, then the forecast trend of my country's oil price may change from a slight rise to a slight decline, and the crude oil change rate referenced for price adjustment has turned to a negative value, but it is likely that it is still stranded. In addition, the price adjustment time is getting closer, so it has become the mainstream view that domestic oil price adjustment has been stranded.
To sum up, according to the price adjustment reference crude oil change rate monitoring data, it can be seen that domestic oil prices are expected to rise slightly, and there are still 5 working days left before the price adjustment. Now that the cumulative increase in oil price forecast is still stranded, international oil prices have seen a slight correction and are still fluctuating within the range. Therefore, comprehensive prediction of the new round of price adjustment may become the mainstream view. Of course, as for how to adjust the price, we need to continue to pay attention.
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