Today is Monday, November 14th. With the start of the new week, the domestic oil price forecast trend will show new changes. Therefore, many people will focus on the expected changes in oil prices in order to cope with the impact of the new round of price adjustments. After all, after almost every round of oil price adjustment, the prices of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will usher in new changes, which is closely related to car owners, because the rise and fall of oil prices are proportional to the refueling cost.
According to the latest news, the crude oil change rate on the fifth working day of this round of pricing statistics cycle is 0.07%. The oil price forecast is that the cumulative increase is 7 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous working day, but it is still in the stranded range overall, so the overall change is not much compared with the previous working day. The latest oil price is expected to be stranded. If the range fluctuates later, the price adjustment on November 21 may show the second stranded this year, corresponding to the prices of No. 92, No. 95 and No. 0 diesel remain unchanged. At that time, the cost of consumers filling a box of gasoline and diesel remains the same as after the previous round of price adjustment.
In addition, referring to the latest news of oil price adjustment, this round of pricing cycle has passed halfway. Although oil price forecasts tend to rise, there is still a distance from the 50 yuan/ton price adjustment red line, which shows that there is still a lot of room for maneuver in the later period. At the same time, because the new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open on November 21, 2022, the 22nd round of oil price adjustments since the beginning of this year will usher in the 22nd round of oil price adjustments since the beginning of this year. In addition, the current latest pricing cycle has reached the fifth working day. Referring to the monitoring data of crude oil change rate, oil prices are expected to remain stranded in recent working days, which means that after the long and short rise and fall are offset, the oil prices are generally still in a stable state, which prompts the latest forecast of oil prices to appear within the stranded range. This is also an important basis for the author to initially predict that the price adjustment on November 21 may show the second stranded this year.
Secondly, in overseas markets, the market generally expects that Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, because the US CPI data in October was better than expected, which may mean that inflation is gradually improving to a certain extent. At the same time, in terms of foreign exchange market, as investors expect the Fed to raise interest rates by aggressively in , it has pushed more funds to withdraw from the US dollar, causing the dollar index to fall sharply last week, falling to its lowest point in nearly three months.
USD weakened significantly, greatly driving the rebound in USD-denominated risk asset prices. international gold price rose sharply last week, with an increase of 5.54%, the largest single-week increase since July 2020. The weakening of the US dollar exchange rate has supported international oil prices. As the cost of purchasing US dollar-denominated commodity futures has dropped, international oil prices have achieved continuous increases.
Furthermore, according to the data, the October inflation data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the US October inflation rate was lower than expected. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, lower than expected 0.6%. October CPI rose 7.7% year-on-year, lower than expected and previous values. BLS said: "Overall inflation in October increased by 7.7% year-on-year, which is the smallest annualized increase since January 2022."
Obviously, from the data, US inflation is gradually slowing, boosting the market's expectation of energy demand to improve. Coupled with the sharp decline in the US dollar index, international oil prices showed a significant increase on November 11. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange in December rose $2.49 to close at $88.96 per barrel, an increase of 2.88%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in January 2023 rose $2.32 to close at $95.99 per barrel, an increase of 2.48%. After rising and falling, U.S. crude oil fell about 3.48% last week, while Berry Oil fell about 2.4%.
To sum up, although international oil prices have begun to rebound recently, due to the large cumulative decline in the previous period, my country's refined oil prices have not rebounded significantly. Referring to the main price adjustment indicators, it can be seen that the latest oil prices are expected to be stranded, and there is still a distance from the price adjustment red line. Therefore, the price adjustment on November 21 may show the second stranded this year.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-