As we all know, chips have begun to plummet since the second half of 2022. The most advanced ones are consumer electronic chips, and later spread to various chips. At present, except for a small number of automotive chips, most chips are not lacking.

As we all know, chips have begun to plummet since the second half of 2022. The most advanced one is the consumer electronics chip, and later it spread to various chips . At present, except for a small number of automotive chips, most chips are not lacking.

is not only lacking, but many IC factories have high inventory, which has led to a major reduction in chip prices. Some chips have fallen by 80%, and some even fall by 90%. Some institutions believe that the chip winter is coming and will fall by 25% next year, the biggest drop in 20 years.

, and chips fell sharply, and fabs were the first to be hit. After all, if you don’t look for fabs to produce chips, ’s capacity will definitely be oversupply, and oversupply will lead to a big price reduction...

So the problem is, are fabs worried about oversupply and chip collapse? Let’s take a look at what these wafer manufacturers say.

First talk about Samsung . Samsung should be more honest. Kyung Kye-hyun, head of Samsung semiconductor department, said that the second half of this year looks bad. It also said that it seems that there does not seem to be a significant improvement momentum next year, basically admitting that it is really bad and a collapse is possible.

Let’s talk about TSMC. TSMC has never been worried about overcapacity. I don’t know if it’s confidence or confidence. On the contrary, it also says it wants to expand production, especially the mature process of expanding production, and saying that it will expand production by 50% in the next few years, which is probably scaring other manufacturers.

Uncontrolled is not worried about oversupply, but it just means that the inventory of IC companies is a bit high now, and it may take 1-2 quarters to go to and from inventory, and then next year, there may be a reversal of to , and the production capacity will not be oversupply, it is only temporary.

SMIC is similar to TSMC and UMC. SMIC said it is optimistic about wafer foundry and has been expanding production. Recently, it established an SMIC Xiqing Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of US$5 billion. It is obvious that you are not worried about this problem.

In addition, we see intel and are not worried about overcapacity. This does not cost $20 billion to build the world's largest wafer factory in the United States. To produce advanced chips of 20A and 18A in 2025, we have to compete with TSMC and Samsung.

can be seen. Overall, although the demand for chips in the market is significantly differentiated, the demand for consumer electronic chips has dropped sharply, and prices have declined, the discussion of the collapse may be a bit too early. At least fabs have not yet felt the crisis and the cold, and may have to wait next year.