As Tesla's CEO, Musk's every word and deed often affects the capital market. The concept of robots and human brain engineering have both risen strongly because of their remarks, but their "unstant" attitude is often criticized by the market.
However, regardless of whether the founder is suspected of hype, Tesla's status as a global new energy vehicle giant is unquestionable. At a time when the prospects for new energy vehicles are improving, the company's achievements have also attracted much attention. Overnight, Tesla released its third-quarter financial report, with a lot of information worth paying attention to.
revenue gross profit was lower than expected, but net profit doubled
On October 20, Beijing time, Tesla released its third-quarter financial report, of which Tesla's total revenue in the third quarter was US$21.454 billion (previously estimated US$22.09 billion), an increase of 56% compared with US$13.757 billion in the same period last year, but lower than Wall Street expectations (analysts expected US$21.96 billion). This is also the first time since the third quarter of 2021 that quarterly revenue was lower than expected.
On the other hand, Tesla's gross profit margin for automobile business in the third quarter was 27.9% (previously the market expected it to be 28.4%), which remained the same month-on-month in the second quarter, and was still at a low level, down 2.6 percentage points from 30.5% in the third quarter of last year, which is also the second consecutive quarter below 30%.
Regarding the reasons why revenue was lower than expected, market analysis believes that the sharp decline in revenue from selling carbon emission indicators during the reporting period may be one of the reasons. In fact, one of the major contributions to Tesla's previous revenue was through the sale of carbon emissions quotas. In the third quarter, the company's revenue through the sale of this quotas was only US$286 million, a decrease of 58% from the high of US$679 million set in the first quarter of this year, and a decrease of 17% month-on-month, which also hit a new low since the third quarter of last year.
However, while revenue and gross profit were lower than expected, Tesla's net profit was rarely far beyond expectations. The report shows that the company's net profit in the third quarter was US$3.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 103%; the adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter were US$1.05, and the market expects US$1.01. The sharp increase in net profit brought more abundant cash flow. At the end of the third quarter, Tesla's cash flow was US$3.3 billion, an increase of 148% compared with US$1.33 billion in the same period last year.
For profit growth, Tesla said it benefits from an increase in average sales price of cars, an increase in vehicle delivery volume and an increase in profits of other parts. It is worth mentioning that when the second quarter financial report was released, Musk said he wanted to reduce the price of the car.
's stock price was halved, and Musk said he would buy back
Due to the impact of lower revenue and gross profit margin than expected, Tesla's US stock market plummeted by 6.28% after the market.
stretched the timeline and saw that Tesla hit a historical high of US$414.50 per share in November 2021, and has since begun to fluctuate and fall. According to the after-hours $208.1, the decline has reached 49% so far, almost halfway.
Overall, Tesla's plunge in the past year has been caused by multiple factors. Including the strong dollar, the economic recession faced by the United States, the increasing threat of competition, consumers are more cautious in spending due to high inflation, the company's stock price is overvalued, and Musk's continued reduction of holdings are all risks facing Tesla's stock price.
Now, the third quarter report is lower than expected. In addition, Musk changed his mind again and said that he agreed to acquire Twitter for about $44 billion, which once again intensified the market's selling sentiment (the acquisition of Twitter means that Musk may have to sell his Tesla shares again in the future to raise funds).
However, as Tesla CEO, Musk began to "draw a cake" for investors in the face of a halved stock price. Musk said Tesla could conduct a "meaningful stock buyback" next year, which could be between $5 billion and $10 billion, awaiting approval from the board of directors.
Musk is more optimistic about Tesla's future stock price. He believes, "We can far exceed Apple's current market value. In fact, I see potential ways for Tesla to surpass Apple and Saudi Aramco to combine."
Currently, Tesla's market value is less than US$700 billion, while Apple's market value is US$2.3 trillion, and oil maker Saudi Aramco has a market value of US$2.1 trillion. In terms of price-to-earnings ratio, Tesla's PE is 62 times, Apple's PE is only 23 times, and Saudi Aramco is 15 times.
lithium price has been high again, what impact will it have on car companies
price reduction, repurchase, acquisition of Twitter, surpass Apple... Putting aside these "big cakes" drawn by Musk, Tesla's position as a new energy vehicle giant is clear.
Tesla said it will plan to increase production capacity as soon as possible. In the coming years, the company expects car delivery to achieve an average annual growth of 50%. Growth rate will depend on its equipment capabilities, plant uptime, operational efficiency, and supply chain capabilities and stability.
However, Tesla's goal may be affected by raw materials.
According to data released by Shanghai Ganglian, the quotations of some lithium battery materials rose on October 19, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 2,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 539,500 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising by 2,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 525,000 yuan/ton, which continued to hit a record high. Ma Rui, chief analyst of the lithium industry of
SMM, judged that in the second half of the year, the lithium carbonate market will maintain a small destocking rhythm, and the fourth quarter will enter the rush installation stage at the end of the year. The rapid rise in demand at home and abroad may further widen the supply and demand gap, and the spot price of lithium carbonate rises. Against the backdrop of the tight overall supply and demand this year, lithium salt prices still have the possibility of rising, which will be a new test for the profitability of downstream car companies.
Faced with the high lithium price, three waves of new energy vehicle price increases in China since this year.
's first round of price increases were concentrated in January-February, mainly because of the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles. Some automakers announced the increase in car prices; the second round of price increases was concentrated in March-May, and the intensity of price increases and price increases of car companies were higher than the first round of price increases. At that time, the reasons given by car companies that concentrated price increases were mostly affected by the rise in raw material prices.
The third round is from June to the present, with fewer and fewer participating companies. But if the price of lithium carbonate rises further, car companies under pressure may set off another wave of price increases. However, according to Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, even if downstream vehicle companies announce price increases, it is still difficult to cope with the impact of high-priced raw materials on the upstream. At present, many new car companies have not yet achieved profitability.
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