As the dollar index fell sharply, offshore RMB rose 2% against the US dollar intraday and recovered the 7.18 mark, setting the largest single-day increase on record . Commodity , gold, silver and crude oil are also flying together. The question is: A shares should follow next week? If it rebounds, how should it be laid out?
First review the market trend of this week. Shanghai Stock Index opened 2915.93 points on Monday, closed 3070.80 points on Friday, with a range increase of 5.31%. The ChiNext Index opened 2250.51 points on Monday, closed 2451.22 points on Friday, with a range increase of 8.92%. US stock Dow Jones Index closed 32403.22 points this week up -1.42% (provided that it rebounded 10.89% in two weeks), and the S&P 500 closed 3770.55 points this week up -3.35%. Nasdaq closed at 10475.25 points this week and rose -5.65%. Judging from this week's data, A-shares have finally rebounded, which feels that they are completely opposite to the trend of US stocks. Is bull market back?
Review the main performance of the market last week. The capital inflow and outflow before the holiday is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase in the sector, not the increase in the sector index]
Judging from the market operation this week, the leading sectors with large trading volume are brewing (164.3 billion), automobile ( GF CSI All-Indicator Automotive Index C) (231.8 billion), electrical equipment (476.4 billion), semiconductor ( Galaxy Innovation Growth Hybrid C ) (232.3 billion), components (257.7 billion), and the rising sectors with the highest turnover rate (more than 10%) are hotels and catering (26.88%), culture and education and leisure (18.47%), tourism (13.24%), semiconductors (12.59%), and electrical equipment (10.60%). Capital flows into the two major sectors of electrical equipment and semiconductors. There are no sectors that have fallen this week, so there is no question of capital outflow. Careful friends have discovered that there has been no capital inflow in all sectors for a long time. It feels like it is really different from the previous volatile market.
From the publicly queried capital situation, northbound funds net bought -5.309 billion for the whole week. Although the capital inflow was large on Friday, the outflow was quite large because the remaining time was also quite large. In fact, northbound funds were still outflowing this week, but it was more obvious than last week's "inflow". In addition, the exchange rate of in rose sharply after the market on Friday, and there may be a possibility of capital reflux next week, that is, northbound funds are relatively large (to be confirmed). financing balance (borrow money to trade stocks) was mainly inflows throughout the week, with inflows of 10.957 billion; margin trading balance (selling stocks shorting ) increased by 3.921 billion over last week (because the net selling is large, which is estimated to be the position of hedge fund ). In other words, this week's capital market is domestic capital inflows (about 14.8 billion), northbound capital outflows (about 5.3 billion). From public data, it is found that funds are inflows (the first time in three months). It is not unreasonable for A-shares to strengthen this week.
So if A-shares are going to rise next week, more capital inflows are needed. Going back to the initial problem, the US dollar index fell sharply, commodities, gold and silver, and crude oil rebounded across the board, and the exchange rate also rose sharply, and the exchange rate has fallen for 3 months. The two big rises are a bit like the structure of double bottom , and it is not ruled out that a new round of upward trend will be formed. Northbound funds flow out when the exchange rate falls, and northbound funds will theoretically flow back in when the exchange rate rises. As long as domestic funds do not flow out significantly, the capital market should be optimistic next week. I think it supports the market to continue to rebound!
Last week, Xinchuang has risen for three weeks and there is a possibility of differentiation. The software sector has not continued to strengthen this week. This is probably the reason. However, the underlying logic of the semiconductor sector that strengthened this week is also Intelligent Innovation, so we cannot think that the Intelligent Innovation sector has been extinguished, but instead switched from software to hardware. If the market is strong, it is not ruled out that the hardware will be traded again and then the software will be released. There is another sector with a lot of capital inflows this week: electrical equipment.I believe everyone is familiar with this, which is the track stocks such as new energy vehicle ( ABC Huili New Energy Theme Flexible Configuration Hybrid C), photovoltaic ( Tianhong CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index C), wind power ( Qianhai United Yonglong Hybrid C), energy storage ( Huitianfu Yingxin Flexible Configuration Hybrid A), etc. Once the market is good, the varieties that institutions have grouped together have recovered the fastest. This has been displayed once in May and June. Will it be copied this time? In addition to the two major inflow sectors, the recent rebound of liquor ( China Merchants CSI Liquor Index (LOF) A) is also a highlight. This lack of turnover is enough. I think it can only be regarded as an oversold rebound of (Moutai fell 27.90% in October, and it is really normal to rebound now).
Therefore, I think there are two main lines in the market next week: 1. Semiconductors (Innovation) and electrical equipment (track stocks that are grouped by institutions) may have a stronger rebound; 2. Oversold rebounds in liquor and other liquor are the main ones to repair the market. Because it is an oversold rebound, sectors that have fallen miserably may have opportunities. Don’t just focus on liquor.
Before looking forward to A-shares next week, we will first review the market views of last week. At that time, we looked at it like this:
continue to pay attention to changes in funds and exchange rates. If the exchange rate and capital situation are improved next week, it is normal to rebound. If the exchange rate and capital side are still the same, we can only wait and see if we wait and see if the exchange rate and capital side are still the same, that is, the two are favorable or push the market rebound. If the two are favorable, we can only be cautious and look forward to the bullish situation. The Shanghai Composite Index is already below the 5-week line. According to the strategy of last week, it is mainly to rest. When it really falls badly, it is okay to do the price difference in ultra-short-term (if you fail, you have to cut it). The ChiNext Index will definitely bottom out of . As for whether it will hit a new low, it depends on whether the capital market can improve. If the capital market is still like this, I think the possibility of a new low is very high. The success rate of short-term game is even lower, so you can rest and wait and see. In terms of subject matter, the game of new subject matter should be considered, but now there is no strong subject matter now. We should start to take profits and leave at high prices and wait for the next opportunity to make a layout.
From the outlook last week, the first half was OK, because GEM opened at a new low this Monday, and the success rate of the Shanghai Composite Index to oversold rebound is quite high. Moreover, the Xinchuang direction software entered a high level to consolidate , which is indeed mainly taking profits at highs. The abnormality occurred on Friday, with northbound funds flowing in unilaterally, and the exchange rate began to stop falling and rebound, which was only one step away from "the exchange rate and funds have been improved" (because it is only a single-day market, and it has not been confirmed whether it will continue). Therefore, the focus next week is actually very simple: look at the exchange rate, northbound funds, and changes in margin trading data. If it is consistent with Friday's trend, I think the market has really bottomed out. If the exchange rate falls again next Monday and northbound funds flow out again, then it will be handled according to the original strategy.
To sum up, I think we can look forward to this next week:
. The Shanghai Composite Index saw a short-selling big positive line recovered the decline last week and stood above the 5-week line, which is a very obvious signal to stop the decline, and its effect is the same as the three-week trend in early May. Since this rebound is dominated by institutions (Xinchuang is an institution, the track is an institution, and oversold white horse is also an institution), it is possible to copy the market from May to June. The 5-week line has changed from pressure to support. It is recommended to follow the trend. If there is a retracement, I think it is still a chance to get on the car.. The big positive line of the ChiNext Index is more direct, and it has recovered the 10-week line, and the signal of stopping the decline is more obvious.To take a step back, even if there is an adjustment, the 10-week and 5-week lines have more support than the Shanghai Composite Index. Moreover, as the 5-week lines turn, goes long and funds may prefer this index (the Shanghai Composite Index has not yet recovered the 10-week line). Since the double bottom structure has been established, the next step is to focus on bullishness when it is low.
Save the stream: The market has the possibility of second bottoming out (it can be confirmed on Monday). Pay attention to the bullish and long layout when the lows are on the main point of !
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