market review:
After today's European session, US dollar index maintained a downward trend, fluctuating around around 112, and gold prices were basically weak. Before the data was released, swaying around around 1708. Today's market focused on the US non-farm employment report, which is expected to cause severe market fluctuations. The US September non-farm employment report will be released. Authoritative media surveys show that the U.S. non-farm employment population is expected to increase by 250,000 in September, following an increase of 315,000 in August. The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 3.7% in September.
Technical analysis:
You must know that in this world, not everything must be discussed, fight for the win or lose, and distinguish between the superior and inferior. A truly wise person understands that taking the overall situation into consideration is not only for himself or for others. When your mentality becomes more and more positive, optimistic and open, the scenery you enjoy will become more and more beautiful, the world you see will become bigger and bigger, and everything you perceive will become more and more smooth!
gold price fell into a downturn after a strong rebound. Although it returned to the 1700 mark, the overall sentiment is still weak. If the increase in non-agricultural employment is higher than expected, it may increase Federal Next month rate hike Next month Turn higher interest rate hike Turn higher again and hit gold. On the other hand, if the non-agricultural data is not as good as expected, this strong rise will also be considered as bringing out the non-agricultural data in advance. The future will definitely not stimulate the rise of gold prices.
Gold price is below the key 50-day moving average, weighing below the 1720-1730 range. If the gold price closes below the rising trend line to support $1707/ounce, this will invalidate the bullish pennant and push the gold price to the key support level of $1700/ounce. Once it falls below this level, it will stimulate the gold price to approach the low of $1695/ounce. If the above support is lost, gold prices will further fall to the 21st-day moving average level 1,681 USD/oz, which will be the bottom line of gold bulls.
Silver Brother began to weaken after the big rebound, but it has gradually rebounded recently and fluctuated around around 21.6. A moderate rise attempts to continue the upward trend, but this possibility is not great. Once the 20th mark is lost, short-term bears will gradually recover the lost ground. Today, try to focus on high altitudes.
According to the data, the US September unemployment rate was announced tonight, with an expected 3.7%, and the previous value was 3.7%. If the data remained unchanged, it would not have a big impact on the market. Once the data fell by 0.1%, it would mean that the number of unemployment rate decreased, and economic recovery would have good demand for the US dollar. At the same time, the previous non-farm value was 31.5, and the expected 250,000 yuan was expected. This time, the expectation was not big. Once it was higher than expected, there was a high probability that the gold price would break the 1,700 mark tonight.
From the market forecast, the value is likely to be within the range of 31.5~25, so negative demand is greater than positive. Even if the data value is less than 250,000, the gold price rose sharply in the past few days, which is equivalent to greatly weakening today's rise. Therefore, try to focus on weakness, and the rebound is based on the 1720~1750 range of support, and the bottom 1660~1630 support. The market is mainly based on the data value, combined with the large cycle pattern.
today focus on
U.S. unemployment rate in September, non-agricultural employment population after the September season adjustment (10,000 people)
, US wholesale sales monthly rate in August
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