For many years, economists have been working to find a theory that can fully explain the structure and changes of interest rates. The "classical school" believes that interest rates are the price of capital, and the supply and demand of capital determine the changes in interest r

1. Interest rate (Interest)

Interest rate, in terms of its manifestation, refers to the ratio of interest amount to the total borrowing capital in a certain period of time. For many years, economists have been working to find a theory that can fully explain the structure and changes of interest rates. The "classical school" believes that interest rates are the price of capital, and the supply and demand of capital determine the changes in interest rates; Keynes regards interest rates as "the cost of using currency." Liu Zhixin Marx believes that interest rates are part of surplus value and are a form of expression of lending capitalists' participation in surplus value distribution. Interest rates are usually controlled by the central bank of the country and are managed by the Federal Reserve in the United States. Now, all countries regard interest rates as one of the important tools for macroeconomic regulation. When the economy is overheated and inflation rises, interest rates are raised and credit is tightened; when an overheated economy and inflation are controlled, interest rates are appropriately lowered. Therefore, interest rates are one of the important basic economic factors. Interest rate level has a very important impact on foreign exchange rates, and interest rates are the most important factor affecting exchange rate . We know that the exchange rate is the relative price between the currencies of two countries. Like the pricing mechanism of other commodities, it is determined by the supply and demand relationship in the foreign exchange market. Forex is a financial asset, and people hold it because it brings capital gains. When people choose whether to hold their own currency or a certain foreign currency, they first consider which currency they hold can bring them greater benefits. The yield of currencies in various countries is first measured by the interest rates of their financial markets. If the interest rate of a certain currency rises, the interest income from holding the currency increases, attracting investors to buy the currency. Therefore, it is favorable (profitable) support for the currency; if the interest rate drops, the income from holding the currency will decrease, and the attractiveness of the currency will also weaken. Therefore, it can be said that "interest rates rise, currency is strong; interest rates fall, currency is weak."

From an economic sense, when the foreign exchange market is equilibrium, the returns brought by holding any two currencies should be equal, which is: Ri=Rj (interest rate parity condition). Here, R represents the rate of return, and i and j represent the currencies of different countries. If the returns brought by holding two currencies are not equal, a foreign exchange arbitrage will occur: buy A type of foreign exchange and sell B type of foreign exchange. There is no risk in this kind of foreign exchange arbitration. Therefore, once the yields of the two currencies are not equal, the exchange arbitrage mechanism will prompt the yields of the two currencies to be equal. That is to say, there is an inherent tendency and trend of equalization in the interest rates of currencies in different countries. This is a key aspect of the impact of interest rate indicators on the direction of foreign exchange rates, and it is also the key for us to interpret and grasp the interest rate indicators. Under the conditions of an open economy, the scale of international capital flows in is huge, greatly exceeding the international trade volume, indicating the great development of financial globalization. The impact of interest rate differences on exchange rate changes is more important than in the past. When a country tightens its credit, interest rates will rise, forming interest rate differences in the international market, which will cause short-term funds to move internationally, and capital will generally always flow from countries with low interest rates to countries with high interest rates. In this way, if the interest rate level of a country is higher than that of other countries, it will attract a large number of capital flows, and the outflow of its own funds will decrease, resulting in the rush to buy this currency in the international market; at the same time, the capital account revenue and expenditure will be improved, and the exchange rate of its own currency will be increased. On the contrary, if a country looses its credit, the interest rate drops. If the interest rate level is lower than that of other countries, it will cause a large amount of capital outflow, reduce foreign capital inflows, deteriorate capital account revenue and expenditure, and at the same time, this currency will be sold on the foreign exchange trading market, causing the exchange rate to fall. Under normal circumstances, if the US interest rate falls, the US dollar's trend will be weak; if the US interest rate rises, the US dollar's trend will be preferred. The trends of US interest rates can be explored from the price changes of US Treasury bills (especially long-term Treasury bills), which can be helpful in predicting the trend of the US dollar. If investors believe that U.S. inflation is under control, then the interest gains of existing Treasury bonds, especially short-term Treasury bonds, will be favored by investors and bond prices will rise.On the contrary, if investors believe that inflation will intensify or worsen, interest rates may rise to curb inflation and the price of bonds will fall. In the first half of the 1980s, the US dollar remained strong despite a large trade deficit and huge fiscal deficit, which was the result of the US implementing a high interest rate policy, prompting a large amount of capital to flow from Japan and Western Europe to the United States. The trend of the US dollar is greatly affected by interest rate factors.

2. Employment Report

Employment Report (TheEmployment Report), including employment-related information, is derived from two independent surveys, namely enterprise survey and family survey. Among them, the enterprise survey provides employment in the non-agricultural sector, with an average hourly work and a total hourly index; the household survey provides information on labor, household employment and unemployment rates. Employment reports are often hailed as the "crown gem" among all economic indicators that the foreign exchange market can respond. It is the most sensitive monthly economic indicator of the market, and investors can usually see a lot of market-sensitive information. Among them, the foreign exchange market pays special attention to changes in the number of non-farm employment per month adjusted with seasonal adjustments.

Non-agricultural employment: It is an item in the employment report. This project mainly counts the changes in jobs other than agricultural production. The data is released together with the unemployment rate. The publication time is usually on the Friday of the first week of each month. The number of non-agricultural employment can reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing industry and service industry. The decrease in numbers means that enterprises reduce production and the economy has entered a depression. When the social economy is faster, consumption will naturally increase accordingly, and the number of positions in consumer and service industries will also increase. When the non-agricultural employment figures increase significantly, it indicates a healthy economic situation that should theoretically be beneficial to the exchange rate and may indicate higher interest rates, while potentially high interest rates prompt the foreign exchange market to drive more of the country's currency value and vice versa. Therefore, this data is an important indicator for observing the degree and status of socio-economic and financial development. The outflow of this data may become a turning point in determining the direction of the foreign exchange market, and may also bring violent fluctuations to the foreign exchange market.

Unemployment Rate: It is also another item in the U.S. Employment Report. It refers to the labor number of the entire employed population who have the willingness to work but still have no jobs during a certain period. The data, together with the number of non-farm employment, was released by the U.S. Department of Labor, and was usually released on Friday of the first week of each month. Unemployment rate data can determine the employment status of the entire working population within a certain period of time. The unemployment rate figure has always been regarded as an indicator that reflects the overall economic situation, and it is the first economic data published every month, so foreign exchange traders and researchers like to use the unemployment rate indicator to predict other related indicators such as industrial production, personal income and even new home construction. Generally speaking, the decline in the unemployment rate represents a healthy development of the overall economy and is conducive to the appreciation of the currency; the rise in the unemployment rate represents a slowdown in the economic development of , , which is not conducive to the appreciation of the currency. If the unemployment rate is combined with inflation indicators for the same period, we can know whether economic development was overheated at that time, whether it would put pressure on interest rate hikes, or whether interest rate cuts are needed to stimulate economic development. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics A monthly sample survey of households across the United States. If the unemployment rate released by the United States fell from the previous month, it means that employment situations have increased, the overall economic situation is better, which is conducive to the rise of the US dollar. If the unemployment rate figure is large, it indicates that the US economy may experience a recession, which will have an adverse impact on the US dollar.

3. GDP3

Gross Domestic Product (GrossDomestic Product) refers to the value of all final products and services produced in the economy of a country or region within a certain period of time (one quarter or one year), and is often recognized as the best indicator to measure the national economic status. It can not only reflect a country's economic performance, but also reflect a country's national strength and wealth.

A country's GDP has increased significantly, reflecting the country's vigorous economic development, national income has increased, and consumption capacity has also increased.In this case, the country's central bank will have the potential to raise interest rates, tighten the money supply, the country's economy performs well and the rise in interest rates will increase the attractiveness of the country's currency. Conversely, if a country's GDP shows negative growth, it shows that the country's economy is in a state of recession and its consumption capacity is reduced. At this time, the country's central bank may cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth again. The country's currency's attractiveness will also decrease. Therefore, generally speaking, high economic growth rates will drive the exchange rate of the country's currency, while low economic growth rates will cause the country's currency to fall.

The announcement of GDP of Western countries is usually divided into monthly and quarterly announcements, among which the GDP data released every quarter is the most important. In the United States, the GDP is analyzed and counted by the Department of Commerce, and the practice is to estimate and count once a quarter. After each preliminary estimate data is published, there will be two revisions and announcements (The First Revision The Final Revision), mainly published in the third week of each month. The GDP is usually used to compare with the same period last year. If there is an increase, it means that the economy is faster and it is conducive to the appreciation of its currency; if it decreases, it means that the economy slows down and its currency will be under pressure to depreciate. For the United States, a 3% growth in GDP is an ideal level, indicating that economic development is healthy, and above this level, there is currency pressure; below 1.5% growth indicates that the economy is slowing down and there are signs of a recession.

4. Trade deficit

Trade deficit is also called "trade deficit". It refers to the total import volume of a country is greater than exports. It reflects the commodity trade situation between countries and is also an important indicator for judging the operating conditions of the macroeconomic. The trade deficit corresponds to the "trade surplus", which means that exports are greater than imports; exports are equal to imports, which is called "trade balance". If a country often experiences a trade deficit, national income will flow abroad, causing the country's economic performance to weaken. If the government wants to improve this situation, it must devalue the country's currency, because the decline in currency value, that is, reducing the price of export commodities in disguise, can improve the competitiveness of export products. Therefore, when the country's foreign trade deficit expands, it will weaken the country's currency and cause the country's currency to fall; on the contrary, when there is a foreign trade surplus, it will be beneficial to the currency. Therefore, international trade conditions are a very important factor affecting foreign exchange rates. The trade friction between Japan and the United States fully illustrates this point. The U.S. trade with Japan has experienced a year-on-year deficit, resulting in the deterioration of U.S. trade balances. In order to limit Japan's trade surplus with the United States, the U.S. government put pressure on Japan to force the yen to appreciate. The Japanese government, however, tried every means to prevent the yen from appreciation too quickly in order to maintain a more favorable trade situation.

Since the United States decoupled from gold in 1971, the US trade deficit has expanded year by year, the domestic economy has begun to weaken, a large number of US dollar assets flowing into Europe, gradually forming the later "Euro dollar". In addition, with the growth of European countries and the rise of Asian countries, the strong position of the US dollar has been strongly impacted. Many countries are working hard for the diversification of international currencies based on the consideration of being vigilant against the dollar bubble and preventing global financial risks, which has also promoted the birth of the euro and the formation of Asian currency concepts to a certain extent.

5. Fiscal deficit

Finance, that is, the income and expenditure status of a government. At the beginning of each fiscal year, a government will always formulate a fiscal budget plan for the year. If the actual implementation result is greater than the expenditure, it will be a fiscal surplus, and the expenditure will be greater than the revenue, which will be a fiscal deficit. There are many reasons why a country has a fiscal deficit. Some lower tax rates or increase government spending in order to stimulate economic development, while others cause a lot of tax evasion or excessive waste due to improper government management. When a country's fiscal deficit accumulates too high, it is like a company bears too much debt. It is not a good thing for the country's long-term economic development and is also a long-term negative for the country's currency. In the future, in order to solve the fiscal deficit, it can only rely on reducing government expenditures or increasing taxes. These two measures have adverse effects on economic or social stability.If a country's fiscal deficit increases, the country's currency will fall. On the contrary, if the fiscal deficit shrinks, it means that the country's economy is good and the country's currency will rise. In the United States, the Treasury Department generally announces the implementation of the federal government budget last month on the 17th government working day of each month. The US government has always been famous for its fiscal deficits. The deficit turned into a surplus in the era of former President Clinton. However, after Bush came to power, he encountered an economic recession and continued to use troops from the outside world, resulting in a high deficit again.

VI. Current Account

Current Account is mainly used to measure the flow of actual resources, including the import and export of goods, the import and export of services, the income receivable and payable to the outside world, and the frequent transfer from and to the outside world. Current Account of Trade (CurrentAccount) is a major item on a country's income and expenditure statement, and records the outflow and inflow of funds between a country and a foreign country, including goods, labor import and export, investment income, other goods and labor income, and other factors.

If the current account balance is positive (surplus), it means that the country's net foreign wealth or net foreign investment has increased. If it is a negative number (deficit), it means that the country's net foreign wealth or investment has decreased. Generally speaking, if a country's current account deficit expands, the country's currency will depreciate, the surplus will expand, and the country's currency will appreciate. The content of the current account roughly includes five major items:

1, goods, which are the import and export of a country's goods.

2. Labor, including transportation and insurance fees related to import and export of goods, passenger freight and port fees, and income and expenditure of domestic residents traveling abroad, sightseeing, and foreigners traveling to their own country, etc.

3. Investment income refers to the dividends or interest earned by citizens in purchasing foreign stocks, bonds and other assets, plus the interest expenses and dividend expenses generated by foreigners in their own country's foreign loans or foreigners' investments in their own country.

4. Other commodities, services and income refer to the transactions of labor and income between residents and non-residents that have not been included in the previous article, the expenditures of embassies and consulates, the remunerations received by residents in foreign work, the expenses of foreign governments or international organizations in their own institutions, etc. The so-called trade balance generally refers to the sum of the four items mentioned above.

5. One-sided transfer refers to cash or in-kind donations, relief, a country's foreign aid and the allocation of funds for international institutions.

In Western countries, current account data is usually published monthly or quarterly, but one-month trade data does not have much effect on the market reference, and the adjusted current account is more important every quarter. In the 1970s and 1980s, the current account deficit once had a great impact on the foreign exchange market. This influence has now subsided, but for the United States, the current account deficit still had a great influence on the US dollar. The current account contains a lot of content and the projects are complicated. But the pressure on the US dollar every time the huge current account deficit is certain.

7. International capital flow

International capital flow refers to the transfer of capital from one country or region to another country or region. Net capital inflows mainly refer to the net inflows caused by overseas investors due to the purchase of a certain country's treasury bonds, stocks and other securities. International capital flows can refer to both the international transfer of money in monetary form, or the international transfer of production factors (or physical capital such as equipment, technology, labor, etc.). Statistically, physical capital is generally measured by deducting physical capital into monetary value. In today's world, international capital flows have become a very eye-catching economic phenomenon and have an important impact on the stability and development of the global economy.

Due to the different economic development levels and production costs of each country and the existence of interest rate spreads, capital has formed an international flow of capital to pursue profits; at the same time, the existence of domestic political and economic risks has also promoted the flow of international capital. According to the different capital flow periods, international capital flows can be divided into two types: long-term capital flows and short-term capital flows. Long-term capital flow refers to capital flows with a term of more than one year. According to the different ways of capital flow, long-term capital flows include three forms: direct investment, securities investment and international lending. Short-term capital flow refers to the transfer of capital with a term of less than one year with a certain credit instrument - bills.It can be divided into four forms: trade finance, value-preserving capital flow, bank capital flow and speculative capital flow.

The inflow of international capital has led to a significant increase in the money supply in various countries. In fact, there is no necessary connection between the inflow of international capital and a country's money supply, which depends to a large extent on the exchange rate policies of various governments and the so-called "offset strategy." When facing the influx of capital, a central bank can adopt two different attitudes: one is to not make any predictions in the foreign exchange market, and allow the appreciation of the domestic currency and the exchange rate to rise due to the influx of foreign capital; the other is to intervene in the foreign exchange market, while buying foreign currencies and selling local currency, sell treasury bonds in the bond market, offset the base currency added to stabilize the local currency. The situation of the second point corresponds to the situation of the first point. Just like in Thailand and Malaysia , these countries have maintained relatively stable exchange rates by strengthening government intervention, although this stability is actually fragile in the event of worsening domestic economic conditions.

8. Foreign exchange reserves

Foreign exchange reserve status is an important factor in the basic analysis of foreign exchange trading, and its important function is to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. Whether a country's currency is stable depends to a large extent on the foreign exchange liquidity that its foreign exchange reserves can guarantee under specific market conditions. From international experience, even if a country's currency meets the conditions for stable exchange rates set by all theories, if the currency is hit by speculative forces and cannot meet the sudden expansion of foreign exchange flows in the foreign exchange market in the short term, the currency will have to depreciate. Judging from the Asian financial crisis in 1998, under the strong speculative atmosphere, impatient citizens and cautious foreign investors often lose confidence in the currency, becoming a fatal force driving violent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. Driven by this force, the government's efforts to maintain exchange rates were actually forced to give up long before reserves fell to zero.

The structure and level of foreign debt are also one of the important factors in the basic analysis of foreign exchange transactions. If a country has external debts, it will inevitably affect the foreign exchange market; if foreign debt is managed improperly, its foreign exchange reserves will be weakened, which will have an impact on the stability of the currency. Many countries such as Argentina and Brazil have more foreign debt than their reserves, and the initial idea is that foreign debt will remain in flow. However, under specific market conditions, if the country fails to make large-scale financing efforts through international markets and loses its original financing channels (which is exactly what happened in the Southeast Asian currency crisis and Argentina financial crisis), it can only be used to satisfy liquidity and maintain market confidence, and the stability of foreign exchange reserves will be challenged. From international experience, when foreign debt management leads to exchange rate fluctuations, the exchange rate of the impacted currencies is often undervalued. The degree of underestimation depends mainly on the stability of the economic system and social order. If a country has a large number of short-term foreign debts, it will directly impact foreign exchange reserves. If there is an "rescue" from the International Monetary Fund, the sharp depreciation of the currency will not only bear the commercial conditions of the IMF loan, but also bear the additional adjustment burden.

9. Economic Beige Book

The US Economic Beige Book is a common name for the "Overview of the Current Economic Conditions of the Federal Reserve Region" and is published eight times a year. The Federal Reserve Bank of China (FED) publishes a summary of the current economic situation every 6 to 8 weeks, and the announcement time is about 2 weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. The name "Brown Book" is because the binding border is brown. The report contains the summary of regional economic situation and the summary of national economic situation proposed by the FED branches in 12 regions. At present, each branch takes turns to summarize the regional reports into a summary of the national economic situation. However, by early 1997, the rotation method will no longer be used to decide by random selection. Beige Book is a valuable tool for FED decision-makers. The report provides real-time evidence of economic changes that cannot be measured by mere statistics. FED did not ask the branch to propose special projects. Branch reports usually include retail, manufacturing, agriculture and banking. Most branches also mention the regional labor market, wages and price pressures.

00. Retail Sale

Retail Sale (Retail Sale) is a statistical summary of retail sales amounts, and is the total value of goods sold in cash or credit by all stores mainly engaged in retail business, except for the service industry. Retail data plays an important guiding role in determining a country's economic status and prospects, because retail sales directly reflect changes in consumer spending. In developed Western countries, consumer spending usually accounts for more than half of the national economy, such as the United States, the United Kingdom and other countries, which can account for two-thirds. The increase in retail sales in a country represents an increase in consumer spending in the country. The economic situation improves, and interest rates may be raised, which is beneficial to the currency. On the contrary, if retail sales decline, it means that the economy is slowing or bad, and interest rates may be lowered, which is negative for the country's currency.

In the United States, retail sales data for the previous month are usually released from 11 to 14th of each month. It is a national retail industry sampling survey conducted by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce every month. The survey targets are retailers of various types and sizes (all registered companies of the Ministry of Commerce). Because the retail industry involves too wide a range, random sampling is used to conduct surveys to obtain more representative data. Retailers in consumer durable products include auto retailers, supermarkets, pharmaceutical and alcohol dealers, etc. Since data from the service industry is difficult to collect and calculate, it is excluded. However, the service industry is also an important part of consumption expenditure. The increase or decrease in consumption can be derived from the data of personal consumption expenditure (including commodity retail and services). In Western countries, automobile sales constitute the largest share of retail sales, generally accounting for 25%. Therefore, while publishing retail sales, a retail data excluding automobile sales will also be released. In addition, since food and energy sales are greatly affected by the season, food and energy are sometimes eliminated and a core retail sales are released.

11. Auto Sales

Auto Sales (AutoSales) is an important part of consumer spending and can also reflect consumers' confidence in the economic prospects. Usually, car sales are first-hand information for us to understand the strength of a country's economic cycle, earlier than the release of other personal consumption data. Therefore, car sales provide a good predictor for subsequent published retail sales and personal consumption expenditures, with car sales accounting for 25% of retail sales and 8% of the total consumption. In addition, car sales can also serve as an early signal to a recession and recovery. If automobile sales rise, it generally indicates a better economy and an increased consumer willingness to consume, which is good for the country's currency. It may also stimulate the country's currency exchange rate to rise with the country's interest rate rising.

12. Personal income

Personal income, including all income obtained from wages and social welfare, reflects the actual purchasing power level of individuals in the country and indicates changes in future consumers' demand for goods, services, etc. The personal income indicator is an effective indicator to predict individual consumption capacity, future consumer purchasing trends and assess the quality of the economic situation. The increase in personal income is better than the decline. The increase in personal income represents an improvement in economic conditions or economic prosperity. Correspondingly, personal consumption expenditure may increase; the decline is of course a sign of slowing down and recession, and the impact on the currency exchange rate trend is self-evident. If the income rises too quickly and the central bank is worried about inflation, it will consider hiking interest rates. Rates will of course have a strong effect on the currency exchange rate.

Personal income includes wages and salary (56%), owner income (8%), rental income (1.4%), stock dividends (4.4%), interest income (11%), transfer payments (13%) and others (6.2%). The personal income data in the United States is collected by the Economic Research and Analysis Bureau of the U.S. Department of Commerce. The sources of information include: wages or salary are obtained from the Labor Bureau or the various industry associations, social welfare data is obtained from the Social Welfare Administration and the Veterans Administration, etc. The dividend data comes from a randomly sampled company dividend distribution survey. The above various data are obtained through coordinated and weighted statistics.Usually, while personal income information is released, two other relevant data are published together, namely personal consumption expenditure and personal savings rate. Personal consumption expenditure represents the market value of individual consumption of goods or services. These two data are important because they are important components of current GNPs, and experts can use these data to predict the possible changes in GNPs.

13. Leading Index

Leading Index (LeadingIndicator), also known as a leading indicator or leading indicator, is one of the most important economic indicators to predict future economic development and is the weighted average of various economic variables that guide economic cycle.

Leading Index consists of many factors, involving many aspects of the national economy. Taking the leading index in the United States as an example, it mainly includes the following elements: 1. The average weekly workload of the manufacturing industry; 2. The average weekly unemployment benefits are applied for; 3. New orders for consumer goods and raw materials by manufacturers; 4. The delivery execution of sellers - the percentage of delayed delivery of their factories; 5. Contracts and orders for factories and equipment; 6. New construction permits for private investment; 7. M2 money supply; 8. S&P 500 stock index and dividend income; 9. Michigan consumer confidence index; 10. The difference between production cost and selling price. If most of these factors are positive, it can be expected that the leading index will rise in advance. The

lead index is usually announced once a month, and the announcement time of each country is not consistent. If the leading index declines for three consecutive months, it indicates that the economy is about to enter a recession; if it rises for three consecutive months, it indicates that the economy is about to prosper or continues to expand. The leading indicator usually has a 6 to 9-month lead time. In the United States, it is generally believed that the leading indicator can predict economic decline 11 months before the recession, and the economic recovery can be predicted in the three months before the economic expansion. After World War II, the leading index has been successfully used to predict the turning point of the boom and frost of the economies of developed Western countries. Among the leading indicators announced by various countries, the leading index in the United States that has the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market is the leading index, which is announced by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and is generally on the last working day of each month. Other countries such as Japan, , Switzerland, , Canada, Germany, etc. will also announce leading indexes. Germany's ZEW economic prosperity index and IFO economic prosperity index also contain certain leading index components. Generally speaking, the foreign exchange market will react strongly to the violent fluctuations of the leading index. The surge in leading index will drive the country's currency to strengthen, and the sharp drop in leading index will cause the country's currency to weaken.

14. Producer Price Index

Producer Price Index (ProducerPriceIndex), abbreviated as PPI in English, is mainly used to measure the price changes of various commodities at different stages of production. Like the consumer price index, it is usually used as an important indicator for observing inflation levels. For the foreign exchange market, the market is more concerned about the monthly changes in the final product PPI. Since food prices increase due to seasonal changes, and energy prices often fluctuate unexpectedly, in order to more clearly reflect the changes in the price of the overall commodity, changes in food and energy prices are generally eliminated, thus forming a "core producer price index" and further observing the trend of inflation rate changes.

In the United States, the data collection of US producer price index is the responsibility of the US Labor Bureau. They collect information from major manufacturers through questionnaires. The base month collected is the quotation of 2,300 products in the week including the 13th of each month, and then weighted to convert it into a hundred-fold form. For the convenience of comparison, the base period is set to 1967. Generally speaking, when the producer price index increases greatly and continues to accelerate, the central bank's corresponding reaction is to adopt a countermeasure to hike interest rates to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, and the possibility of the country's currency appreciation increases; vice versa.

15. Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index (ConsumerPriceIndex), abbreviated as CPI in English, is a measure of the price of a fixed consumer goods basket. It mainly reflects the changes in the price of consumers' payment of goods and services. It is also a tool to measure the level of inflation, and it is expressed in terms of percentage change.The main commodities that constitute this indicator in the United States are divided into seven categories, including: food, wine and beverages, residence, clothing, transportation, medical and health, entertainment, other goods and services. In the United States, consumer price index is published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and has two different consumer price indexes. The first is the consumer price index of workers and employees, referred to as CPW for short. The second is the consumer price index of urban consumers, referred to as CPIU for short.

German consumer price index measures the actual changes in prices in Germany. The Consumer Price Index measures the price changes of a certain basket of goods and services that consumers often purchase over a certain period of time. Using the Consumer Price Index, consumers can compare prices for a basket of goods and services this month to the same period last year. Unlike the statistical method of the Consumer Price Index in the United States, Germany updates the index through approximately 350,000 price data for about 750 commodities collected by 190 municipal statistical offices in Germany at about 20,000 retail locations. The collection of price data is scheduled in the middle of each month, measuring actual price changes by determining and comparing the prices of consumer goods that are inconvenient in quantity and quality.

CPI price index indicator is very important and enlightening and must be carefully grasped, because sometimes it is announced that the indicator has risen and the currency exchange rate is improving, and sometimes the opposite is true. Because the level of the consumer price index indicates the purchasing ability of consumers and also reflects the economic prosperity, if the index falls and reflects the economic recession, it will inevitably be unfavorable to the currency exchange rate trend. But if the consumer price index rises, will the exchange rate be positive? Not necessarily, it depends on how "amount" the consumer price index is. If the index rises moderately, it means that the economy is stable and upward, which is of course beneficial to the country's currency. However, if the index rises too much, it has a negative impact, because the price index is inversely proportional to the purchasing ability. The more expensive the price, the lower the purchasing ability of the currency, which will inevitably be unfavorable to the country's currency. If the impact on interest rates is considered, the impact of this indicator on foreign exchange rates is more complicated. When a country's consumer price index rises, it indicates that the country's inflation rate increases, that is, the purchasing power of the currency weakens. According to the purchasing power parity theory, the country's currency should weaken. On the contrary, when a country's consumer price index drops, it indicates that the country's inflation rate has decreased, that is, the purchasing power of the currency increases. According to the purchasing power parity theory, the country's currency should strengthen. However, since all countries have taken controlling inflation as their top priority, rising inflation also brings opportunities for interest rates to rise, this is actually beneficial to the currency. If inflation falls under control and interest rates tend to fall at the same time, instead it will weaken the currency in the region. Policies to reduce inflation will lead to a "tequila effect", which is a common phenomenon in Latin American countries.

16. Retail Price Index

Retail Price Index (Retail Price Index) refers to the price index of retail goods paid in cash or credit card form. The US Department of Commerce specifies retail products nationwide every month, including furniture, electrical appliances, supermarkets, medicine, etc., but various service industry consumption is not included. Automobile sales constitute the largest single component of retail sales, accounting for about 25% of the total. Many foreign exchange market analysts pay great attention to examining changes in retail price index. The rapid social and economic development and the increase in personal consumption will lead to an increase in retail prices. The continuous rise of this indicator may bring pressure on rising inflation, causing the government to tighten the money supply, and the rising interest rates will bring positive support to the country's currency. Therefore, the index is positive, which is theoretically beneficial to the country's currency.

17. Import and Export Price Index

Import Price Index (Import Price Index) measures the price changes of foreign products purchased by American residents; Export Price Index (Export Price Index) measures the price changes of products produced in the United States imported to other countries. The measurement methods of these two indexes are similar to those of the Consumer Price Index. The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects net transaction prices for over 6,000 companies' prices per month for over 20,000 products, and then weights the product's relative importance (such as its share of expenditure) in 1995.

18, Consumer Confidence Index

Consumer Confidence Index is mainly to understand the strength of consumers' confidence in the economic environment, reflect consumers' views on the economy and purchasing intentions. The report includes consumers' evaluations of the current economic situation and employment market, as well as expectations for the future economy and employment market, as well as issues related to family income and whether they plan to buy houses, cars and other consumer goods. Through sampling surveys, consumers' feelings and views on the current economic prosperity, employment situation and personal financial status in the next six months. In the United States, the National Family Perspectives Company was commissioned by the Economic Consultative Conference's Consumer Research Center to conduct a survey of about 5,000 households across the United States every month, and then came up with statistics. The survey began in early 1969. The respondents will mainly be asked about their feelings about "current economic prosperity" and "current employment situation" and make "very good", "ordinary" or "bad" views. At the same time, they will think that "the economic prosperity in six months", "employment in six months", and "income after six months", which shows that they think that "will be better", "same as now" or "worse". The trend of increasing or decreasing changes in the proportion of different views on each issue is the focus of observation. The index is based on 1985.

Compared with the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, the Economic Consulting Chamber's Consumer Confidence Index has greater volatility, which also reduces the reliability of the index as a barometer of consumer attitudes. Among environmental factors, the labor market situation and stock market performance have the deepest influence on the consumer confidence index, and consumers have a more sensitive response to the two. In the economic cycle, the consumer confidence index is regarded as a simultaneous indicator of economic strength and is highly correlated with the current economic situation. The analysis shows that the index has a weak correlation with consumer spending and has a strong negative correlation with the unemployment rate, a lagging indicator of economic conditions. Stock market investors prefer an upward growth in consumer confidence index because it represents consumers having a strong desire to consume goods and services, which is conducive to economic expansion. Bond market investors prefer a downwardly reduced consumer confidence index because it represents a weak willingness to consume and the possibility of an economy slowing down is increasing. The dollar exchange rate usually seeks hint from the Fed that if consumer confidence rises, it means consumption growth, the economy strengthens, the Fed may raise interest rates, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly.

19, University of Michigan Consumer confidence index

University of Michigan Consumer confidence index is a corresponding assessment of the views of consumers on their personal financial status and national economic status by researchers from the University of Michigan in the United States. Researchers from the University of Michigan used the original survey data of 500 to 600 adults to calculate seasonally adjusted consumer confidence, current status index (including current financial status and purchase status) and expected index (including expected financial status and economic status for the next year and five years). For the need for index calculations, the researchers set the results for the first quarter of 1966 to 100.

For a long time, this data has provided a valuable guide for the grasp of changes in consumers' attitudes, which can better predict consumption behavior. In addition, compared with other data for similar purposes, the data is less volatile and more stable in performance. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index is more closely related to consumer spending than the Economic Chamber of Commerce’s consumer confidence index. If consumer confidence rises, the bond market regards it as a negative and the price falls; the stock market usually regards it as a positive. The dollar exchange rate usually seeks hint from the Fed that if consumer confidence rises, it means consumption growth, the economy strengthens, the Fed may raise interest rates, and the dollar will strengthen accordingly.

20. ISM Manufacturing Index

ISM index is an important data released by American Supply Management Association , and has an important impact on reflecting the prosperity of the US economy and the trend of the US dollar. The ISM index is divided into two categories: manufacturing index and non-manufacturing index, which are important indicators for measuring manufacturing.Its publication agency, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is the world's largest and most authoritative professional organization in procurement management, supply management, logistics management and other fields. The organization was founded in 1915. Its predecessor was the American Procurement Management Association. It currently has more than 45,000 members and 179 chapters. It is one of the most respected professional groups in the United States. The ISM Manufacturing Index is an index that examines the manufacturing industry's production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports to draw conclusions to describe the trend of the economy. This data takes 50 as the divide point of strength and weakness, which means that the improvement in manufacturing is beneficial to the currency; otherwise, it means recession, which is not good for the currency.

data is published by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) at 23:00 a day at the beginning of each month. The ISM Supply Management Association Manufacturing Index consists of a series of sub-indexes, among which the purchasing manager index is the most representative.

21. Purchase Manager Index

Purchase Manager Index (Purchase Manager Index) reflects the comprehensive development status of manufacturing in various aspects such as production, orders, prices, employees, and delivery. The Purchasing Managers Index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength: that is, when the index is higher than 50%, it is considered an expansion of the manufacturing industry, and when the index is lower than 50%, especially very close to 40%, there are concerns about economic depression. It is a very important auxiliary pointer among the leading indicators. The market attaches great importance to the US Purchasing Managers Index. It is a physical examination form for the US manufacturing industry. Before the US Purchasing Managers Index is released, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index will also be released. This is part of the US Purchasing Managers Index. The market often makes expectations for the national Purchasing Managers’ performance. In addition to paying attention to the overall index, the price payment index and the price collection index in the Purchasing Managers index are also regarded as one of the price indicators, and the employment index is more often used to predict the unemployment rate and the performance of the non-agricultural employment population.

22. Chicago Purchase Manager Index

Chicago Purchase Manager Index (Purchase Management Index) is a manufacturing data released by the Chicago branch of the American Purchase Managers Association. It is a barometer that reflects the comprehensive development status of manufacturing in production, orders, prices, employees, delivery and other aspects. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is the most important part of the National Purchasing Managers Index. It is usually released before the National Purchasing Managers Index is released. The market often expects the National Purchasing Managers’ performance on the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ performance. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength: that is, when the index is higher than 50%, it is considered an expansion of manufacturing, and when the index is lower than 50%, especially very close to 40%, there are concerns about economic depression. The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index is also a very important auxiliary pointer among the leading indicators. The market values this data more and is a barometer reflecting the development of the US manufacturing industry.

23. Service Industry Purchase Manager Index

Service Industry Purchase Manager Index (PurchaseManagementIndex) measures the service industry's situation in eight areas: sales, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports. The service industry purchasing managers index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength, that is, when the index is higher than 50%, it is explained that the economy is in expansion. When the index is below 50%, especially very close to 40%, it indicates that the economy is worried about a depression. It is a very important auxiliary pointer among the leading indicators, and it can predict changes in the number of employment and the direction of price changes.

24. ZEW Economic Boom Index

ZEW Economic Boom Index is a survey of 350 analysts and institutional investors on their expectations for Germany's medium-term (6 months) economic activities and capital market prospects. The survey reflects the difference in the proportion of analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic about Germany's economic outlook over the past six months, and the market is concerned about its relative changes. This value is released together with the ZEW Economic Status Index on the third week of each month.

25. IFO Business Climate Index

IFO Economic Climate Index (IFO Business Climate Index) is compiled by the German IFO research institute and is an important leading indicator for observing the economic situation in Germany. IFO is the English abbreviation of the German Institute of Economic Information Registration Association. It was founded in Munich in 1949. It is a public welfare and independent economic research institute and is known as one of the German government think tanks. The compilation of the IFO economic prosperity index is an index compiled based on the company's current situation, the company's plans and views of the next six months in the short term. Since the IFO economic prosperity index is released monthly, it investigates the company's views on the future, and covers a wide range of departments, it is highly referenced in economic trend forecasts. Germany is one of the most important economic entities in the euro zone . Germany's economic situation is of great guiding significance for the market to judge the European economic prospects. Generally speaking, Germany's economic indicators have a great impact on the euro.

26. Japan Short-term Report

Short-term Report (Tankan) is one of Japan's leading indicators of prosperity. The data on corporate short-term reports released by the Japanese government every quarter are very representative and can accurately predict Japan's future economic trends.

Survey method: From the 160,000 enterprises nationwide, about 6% of the survey were conducted. The respondents were divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, each divided into large, medium and small enterprises.

Visit content: prosperity judgment, annual business plan, financial situation

Visit question items: prosperity judgment, demand, demand for imported products, finished product inventory, production equipment usage rate, input and production prices, employment, financial status, bank borrowing attitude, interest rate trends, etc.

negative numbers indicate that more companies are pessimistic about the economic outlook than those who are optimistic, while positive numbers indicate that more companies are optimistic about the economic outlook than those who are pessimistic. According to history, the short-term corporate report data released by the Japanese government every quarter is very representative and can accurately predict Japan's future economic trends, so it has a considerable linkage with the stock market and the yen exchange rate fluctuations.

27. Industrial production

Industrial production index represents the total production of factories, mines and public power facilities across the country. The Eurozone Industrial Production Index measures the output of manufacturing and energy industries in the 12 countries. Output refers to the specific quantity of the product. It is different from the sales value, which includes quantity and price. The index covers the production of all commodities and energy used for consumption at home and abroad. Industrial output data reflect the country's economic recovery momentum and provide further basis for the market to evaluate the country's economy. When many economists calculate GNP or estimate the future economic direction, the industrial production index is the most commonly cited data. The rise in the industrial production index represents an improvement in the economic prosperity, and GNP should rise with the rise. At the same time, industrial production is also one of the four major economic data that reflects economic operation.

28. Capacity Utilization rate

Capacity Utilization rate, also known as equipment utilization rate, is the ratio of total industrial output to production equipment. A simple understanding is how much actual production capacity is in operation and plays a production role. When counting this data, the scope covered includes eight projects, including manufacturing, mining, utilities, durable commodities, non-durable commodities, basic metals industry, automobile industry and gasoline. Represents the level of capacity utilization of the above industries. When the capacity utilization rate exceeds 95%, it means that the equipment utilization rate is close to all, and the pressure of inflation will increase rapidly as the production capacity cannot cope with it. In the case of market expectations that interest rates may rise, it is beneficial to a country's currency. On the contrary, if the capacity utilization rate is below 90% and continues to decline, it means that there is too much idle equipment and the economy is in a recession. If the market expects interest rates to decrease, it is a negative for the country's currency. The market generally attaches the most importance to the capacity utilization data in the United States. In the United States, data for the previous month is generally released in the middle of each month.

29. Industrial Orders

Industrial Orders (FactoryOrders) include new orders, undelivered orders, inventory and sales announced by the domestic manufacturing industry.Industrial orders reflect the industrial production and sales of a country, including durable goods orders and non-durable goods orders. This indicator reflects the quality of manufacturing production situation. Manufacturers usually arrange production after receiving orders, so this indicator is also regarded as a harbinger of the next production activity. When durable goods orders are greatly reduced, it reflects weak manufacturing and a decrease in output in the next period may lead to an increase in unemployment rate and slowdown in economic development, which is therefore unfavorable to the country's currency; on the contrary, when durable goods orders increase, it reflects that the country's economic development is good, which is beneficial to the country's currency. To analyze new orders and shipments and their importance in industrial activities and the healthy economic development, industries with greater volatility are usually excluded, mainly aircraft and government needs (such as defense orders). The biggest shortcoming of the new order in reflecting U.S. demand is that import demand is not included, while overseas resource demand produced in the U.S. is included.

30. Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders represent the order quantity for items that are not easily dissipated in the next month. This data reflects the activity of the manufacturing industry. By definition, orders generally refer to transactions of goods that are intended to be purchased and expected to be shipped immediately or shipped in the future. In the United States, the Department of Commerce released data on durable goods orders for the previous month in late each month. This statistics include statistics on the ordering of heavy industrial products such as automobiles and aircraft, manufacturing capital supplies, and other items such as electrical appliances. Since this statistics include supplies from the national defense department and supplies from the transportation department, these supplies are all high-priced products, and the changes in data from these two departments have a great impact on the overall data, so the market also pays more attention to the changes in data after deducting supplies from the national defense department and supplies from the transportation department. Overall, if the data grows, it means that manufacturing conditions have improved, which is beneficial to the country's currency. On the contrary, if it decreases, it means that the manufacturing industry has shrunk and is negative for the country's currency. The market generally attaches the most importance to the U.S. durable goods order index.

31. Commercial inventory

is released by the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Statistics, and the data from two months ago is released around the 15th of each month. Commercial inventory is a commodity in a reserve state. The goods produced by factories will not immediately enter personal consumption or production consumption through the circulation field, and some of them must be stored for production and sales. Therefore, maintaining a certain amount of commercial inventory is an important condition for maintaining and expanding reproduction and business scope. However, the significant increase or decrease in inventory is directly related to market conditions and economic rise and fall. In a period of rapid economic development, if commercial inventory suddenly increases, it indicates that economic development will be hindered and there is a possibility of stagnation or recession; in a period of sluggish economic development, if commercial inventory suddenly decreases, it indicates that economic development has shown signs of improvement. Therefore, commercial inventory is a leading indicator to show a country's economic development status. Commercial inventory also reflects the commercial sector’s demand for short-term credit. Increased commercial inventory may drive short-term interest rates and slow down economic development, indicating that the economy may enter a state of stagnation, and in severe cases, it may indicate that the economy is beginning to decline. The relevant data that may be involved are as follows:

Monthly retail trade: Retail companies provide retail sales and selective institutional sales data denominated in US dollars; a group of companies provide inventory value data at the end of the month.

Monthly Wholesale Trading: Enterprises provide wholesale sales and monthly inventory value data for commodities denominated in USD. Manufacturer's current production level and future production volume data. Data subitems include loading value, new orders, total inventory at the end of the month, raw materials and supplies, semi-finished and finished products inventory.

32. New house construction and construction permit

In the United States, there are generally two types of new house construction; single-family houses and group houses. When single-family houses are coming, the base of one household is 1. When a 100-family apartment starts to be built, the base of the new house is 100. Based on this, the new house start rate is calculated. Experts generally attach more importance to the construction of individual houses, because units in group houses can be modified at any time, with high volatility and data usually cannot be grasped.

Construction indicators generally play an important role in the data released by various countries, because the real estate industry plays an important role in modern economies, and the economic prosperity of a country is often reflected in construction indicators. The construction of houses is an investment and is an important driving force for the growth of the national economy. In Western countries, the construction and construction permits of new houses are two of the more important construction indicators, and the scope of construction for residential or non-industrial purposes is basically examined. The increase in residential construction will increase the number of people employed in the construction industry. Liu Zhixin’s newly bought houses usually buy other durable goods. Through the multiplier effect, the output and employment of other industries will increase, and changes in residential construction will directly point to economic recession or recovery. Generally speaking, the increase in new house construction and construction permits is theoretically a positive factor for the country's currency, which will drive the excessive currency to strengthen. The decline in new house construction and construction permits may be lower than expected, which will put pressure on the country's currency. The release date is between the 16th and 19th of each month.

33. New home sales

New home sales are also called pre-sale house sales. It refers to the number of houses signed for sale contracts. The U.S. new home sales will be announced by the Department of Commerce at the end of the month. Since new home sales are the number of houses signed for sale contracts, home buyers usually subscribe to houses through mortgage loans and mortgage loans, so they are more sensitive to current mortgage interest rates. The statistics of the built-in house sales are the completed houses, which are more sensitive to interest rates a few months ago. New home sales data occupies an important position in the sales category, which directly reflects the prosperity of the real estate market. The real estate market conditions reflect the level of consumer spending for residents. If consumption spending is strong, it indicates that the country's economy is running well. Therefore, generally speaking, the increase in new home sales is theoretically a positive factor for the country's currency, which will drive the excessive currency to strengthen, and the sales volume will decline or be lower than expected, which will put pressure on the country's currency. In addition, new home sales can usually be reflected through new home start and construction permit data. If new home start and construction permit activities decrease, new home sales will generally decline. However, things are all dialectical and complementary, and the poor sales of new houses will also lead to a cooling of new house construction in the next few months.

34. Construction expenditure

Construction expenditure is construction expenditure (ConstructionSpending), which reflects the monthly additional construction activity quota denominated in US dollars. Buildings are divided into residential buildings, non-residential private buildings, public buildings and other public/private buildings such as roads and public facilities. This data is used to directly estimate the amount of capital inputs in the GDP. Building permit data provided by Liu's residential building census bureau and property rights data for non-residential building starts are very useful leading indicators of construction activities.

35. M3 money supply

M3 money supply indicator is a main indicator to measure money supply. It includes banknotes, coins, current deposits and 4-year fixed deposits, that is, M3=M2+ fixed deposits and savings deposits of other financial institutions. The ECB uses the increase in the money supply to measure inflation pressure. Liu Zhixin examines the impact of currencies on the economy at different levels and selects the monetary assets that are most closely related to economic changes. As the focus of central bank control, it is conducive to central bank regulation of money supply and timely observes the implementation effect of monetary policy. The central bank sets a growth target range for M3 every year, and M3 growth above the range causes inflation concerns.

36. Average hourly salary

Average hourly salary (Average hourly salary) is used to measure the salary and salary levels of staff in the private non-agricultural sector using average hourly and weekly income. The hourly income data reflects changes in the hourly base salary rate and reflects the growth of bonuses for overtime. The average hourly salary may reflect earlier the trend of changing wages and salary costs in the industry complement the employment cost index, and jointly provide a reference for measuring the total labor cost.The indicator has certain volatileness and limitations, but it is still a headline about inflation in the month. The foreign exchange market focuses on changes in average hourly and weekly wages adjusted by seasons per month and year. Generally speaking, if the average hourly wage is expected to cause an increase in interest rates, a rapid increase in hourly wages will create a positive stimulus for the country’s currency and vice versa. In the United States, the indicator is monitored by the Federal Reserve.

37. The number of applicants for unemployment benefits per week

This indicator is also one of the most eye-catching economic indicators in the market. Because employment involves the driving force for future economic development, this is a forward-looking indicator. At present, the United States is a completely consumer-oriented society, and the desire to consume is the biggest driving force of the economy. If many Americans lose their jobs every week and apply for unemployment benefits, it will seriously suppress consumer confidence. Since the data is released every week, it is the focus of the investment market. The number of unemployed people has increased significantly, and the fiscal pressure of the US government has also increased accordingly. It is also a test for the US economy that has a "double red terminal illness", so the government will also adopt corresponding policies to stimulate the momentum of the economy. Adding the number of applicants from states to Saturday can yield data. It should be noted here that applicants are divided into two categories: the first category is the first application, and the second category is the continuous application. The data is released by the Department of Labor every Thursday, the monthly average is published every four weeks, and the quarterly average is published every three months. The data has some predictive effect on the subsequent monthly employment report, with economists saying that the weekly unemployment benefits of less than 350,000 usually predicting moderate employment growth.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time is one of the indicators that reflect the situation of their domestic labor market. The increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time reflects the increase in the number of people fired or the difficulty of finding new jobs. This indicator is the second indicator to reflect the labor market conditions, and the monthly employment report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has attracted more attention. The issuance of unemployment benefits is not for all unemployed people, but is "distributed according to conditions". The basic conditions are: you must work for more than 20 weeks; have sufficient reasons for unemployment; and be healthy. Those who voluntarily resign and those who are fired for negligence cannot receive unemployment benefits. Unemployed people who believe they meet the conditions must apply. After review and confirm that the conditions are met, they will start to receive unemployment benefits in the second week of submitting the application. The amount of unemployment benefits paid in the previous year's maximum wage quarter is based on the income of approximately 60%. Generally, unemployment benefits can be paid up to 26 weeks, and can be extended to 39 weeks during the "high unemployment period" and can be extended to 52 weeks when the economy is in a depression. In this special situation, half of the required funds come from the federal government and half are provided by the state government. The normal relief funds are obtained by the state government every year by imposing "unemployment compensation tax" from employers.

38. Consumer Credit Balance

Consumer Credit Balance (ConsumerCredit), including household loans used to purchase goods and services that will be repaid in two months and more than two months. In Western countries, loan consumption is a very common phenomenon. When buying bulk commodities, such as houses, cars, or bulk services, such as receiving university education, the number of people applying for loans from banks will be quite large, thus forming a consumer credit balance. The foreign exchange market focuses on the seasonally adjusted net credit balance. Generally speaking, an increase in consumer credit balance indicates an increase in consumer spending and optimism about the economy. This situation usually occurs during economic expansion. A decrease in credit balance indicates a decrease in consumer spending and may be accompanied by pessimism about future economic activity. Generally speaking, if the consumer credit balance does not fluctuate significantly, the foreign exchange market does not respond strongly to the data. At the same time, we cannot interpret consumer credit balances in isolation, but should conduct comprehensive investigations in combination with other data. (Liu Zhixin:)