chip industry is in a turbulent "winter". In addition to being under the tremendous pressure of the global economic slowness, the equipment industry is even more chilly. On the 3rd, the component supplier Prodrive, the leading manufacturer of lithography machine in the Netherlands, , reported that a fire broke out in Prodrive, the component supplier of ASML, and ASML immediately launched the strategic adjustment of backup suppliers. Shipping this year will not have an impact, but whether shipments will be delayed in 2019 will be evaluated again. Industry insiders believe that if the affected EUV lithography machine is related to the hot battle between TSMC and Samsung Electronics, ASML, as the world's only supplier, may bring uncertainty to the global 7-nanometer war!
(Source: ASML)
The equipment industry was in a hot first half of the year, but in the second half of the year it was in the "fireline zone"
2018 The equipment industry has always been in the "fireline zone" of the chip industry. Originally, orders were full in the first half of the year and shipments were not enough. By the second half of the year, the entire industry's prosperity reversed. In October, the DRAM independent technology camp in Fujian Jinhua suddenly banned equipment by the United States. In November, it was reported that large American equipment manufacturers encouraged employees to take more leave, which was a vague sign of "unpaid leave" in previous years.
I thought it was almost the end of the year, and the uneasy 2018 was finally over. It was about to welcome a brand new year. On the occasion of 2019, a fire broke out in the ASML supplier, the leading Dutch lithography machine manufacturer, suddenly occurred!
ASML told DT Jun that a fire broke out in the component and module supplier Prodrive on the weekend, causing the supplier's existing inventory capacity to be destroyed. The company has asked other suppliers to provide replacement components and materials as soon as possible. It is currently determined that the shipment schedule in 2018 will not have any impact, but the supply in early 2019 may be deferred and is currently under evaluation.
ASML also emphasized that due to the sudden incident, it took several weeks to evaluate the actual impact of the incident based on careful consideration. The most important thing is that no one has an accident in the fire.
Prodrive is ASML's lithography machine components and module supplier. It is understood that the cooperation between the two parties has been very long, and can be traced back to at least 2011. ASML was also awarded the Prodrive Best Supplier Award in 2017, the “ASML Supplier Collaboration Award”.
ASML Will the sudden supplier fire affect the shortage of EUV machines and attract attention?
Industry insiders believe that the actual impact will wait for the ASML to announce the results after evaluation. Which machine device may be affected, is a deep ultraviolet light (DUV) machine? Or is it about the extreme ultraviolet light (EUV) machine about TSMC and Samsung 7 nanometer war? Because the two major manufacturers will enter the critical moment of the 7-nanometer EUV machine war in 2019, the instant supply of "key arms equipment" for logistics is crucial!
According to data from US research institutions, ASML firmly ranked first in the global semiconductor lithography equipment factory with 85% market share, followed by Japanese manufacturer Nikon 10.3% and Canon (Canon ) 4.3% and ASML has been ranked first in the market for 16 consecutive years.
Furthermore, ASML is in a global exclusive position in EUV lithography machines, which means that only ASML can supply this semiconductor device, which is an extremely special state in the global industrial chain, and the cost of an EUV lithography machine is as high as 100 million euros.
(Source: ASML)
ASML currently has three major product lines: EUV lithography machine, DUV lithography machine and application products. Among them, DUV lithography machines are the main force in operation and have the largest shipment volume, while EUV is the most forward-looking product and will start to increase in volume next year.
According to ASML's estimate, a total of 18 EUV lithography systems are expected to be shipped by the end of 2018. Since the first batch of EUV imported into production will enter the mass production stage in 2019, the company also estimates that the shipment of EUV lithography machines in 2019 can reach 30 units, and the shipment volume in 2020 will be viewed at 40 units.
In addition, ASML is also committed to promoting the EUV technology blueprint and making important progress. The next generation of NXE:3400C equipment is expected to start shipment in the second half of 2019, and the number of wafers exposed by NXE:3400C equipment per hour has increased to 155 wafers.
Industry insiders believe that the most concerned link among all walks of life is whether the fire incident of ASML suppliers will affect the shipment of 7-nanometer-related machines in 2019 by major customers, including the most critical EUV and DUV equipment.
TSMC and Samsung EUV lithography wars will peak next year
TSMC's 7-nanometer process has been mass-produced in 2018, but the non-EUV technology version adopts multiple exposure technology (multi-patterning). By the first quarter of 2019, TSMC's second-generation 7-nanometer process (N7+) using EUV technology will begin to flow, fully facing Samsung's 7-nanometer process using EUV technology.
TSMC's second-generation 7-nanometer process has attracted much attention because its first customer is HiSilicon's new generation Kirin 990 processor , which is expected to start production in the second quarter. This is Huawei's first 5G-enabled processor, and the second-generation 7-nanometer process (N7+) can bring the advantage of increasing transistor density by another 20% and reducing power consumption by 10%.
According to this schedule, the mass production schedule of HiSilicon's new generation Kirin 990 processor will face the first generation of 7-nanometer process that uses EUV technology, but Samsung mainly supports its own smartphones. Previously, TSMC and Samsung refused to give in to whom the first mass-produced EUV technology!
Furthermore, ASML's business share in China is also increasing. In the first half of this year, the Chinese market accounted for about 20% of ASML's revenue, and it is estimated that the average annual rate will reach about 15%. Currently, ASML's customers in China include SMIC , Huahong Semiconductor, Changjiang Storage, Hefei Changxin, Intel Dalian Factory, SK Hynix Xi'an Factory, Fujian Jinhua, etc.
(Source: DT Jun)
When Moore's law reaches its limit, there are several paths that are the key to extending its lifespan. One of them is the breakthrough in EUV lithography machine technology, and the only ASML role that can produce EUV lithography machines is even more critical.
After many years of research and development and progress, the exposure efficiency of EUV lithography machines has been greatly improved to the stage where customers can import them. Chips using EUV lithography machines are finally going to increase in volume. 2019 will be a historical moment for semiconductor production. This time, the fire of ASML suppliers may be a small storm, but it also reflects the scarcity of "key arms", making global chip production costs more and more expensive, suppliers more and more concentrated, and the industrial chain is in an extremely tight state at any time!
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