There have been changes in the "nine-in-one" local elections in Taiwan at the end of the year. Originally, Taipei City and New Taipei City were expected to be the "British Group" in person, and Chen Shizhong, head of the Taiwan Health and Welfare Department, and Luo Zhizheng, the

Luo Zhizheng has given up running for New Taipei Mayor

(Commentator Lin Shuling) Taiwan's "nine-in-one" local elections have changed at the end of the year. Originally, Taipei City and New Taipei City were expected to be the "British Group" in person, and Chen Shizhong, head of the Taiwan Health and Welfare Department, and Luo Zhizheng, the Green Camp People's Agency, took action. Luo Zhizheng has recently announced his abandonment, and Chen Shizhong has also expressed his intention to retreat. The two of them don’t want to choose, but they naturally look at the bad election situation. With the epidemic and the recent economic situation deteriorated, if the United States and NATO continue to fight the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is no surprise that the Democratic Progressive Party sank with the US Democratic Party at the end of the year.

The Democratic Progressive Party claims to be the most elected party in Taiwan, but this requires a prerequisite, at least the weather is good and the people are happy and healthy. In recent years, the Green Camp has been in full swing due to the omnipresentation of the Internet and has expanded to the point where it has firmly believed that electoral technology can be used to urge them and ignore the wisdom of the people. This can be seen from the plan to nominate Chen Shizhong for the election of the mayor of Taipei. Due to the epidemic, the border has not been lifted, and countless people have been unemployed, have no paid leave, and even have lost their property. Chen Shizhong is among the top in Taiwan's "hate value" rankings. Taipei City is another extremely difficult constituency district of the Democratic Progressive Party. After Chen Shui-bian lost his election after one term in 1994, he has gone through three mayors, Ma Ying-jeou, Hao Longbin, and Ke Wen-je. The three of them have worked for 8 years each. In total, the Democratic Progressive Party has never won the Taipei mayoral election in 24 years. With such a candidate and such a constituency, the DPP is still confident that it will win the nomination of Chen Shizhong.

Recently, many polls on the island have been conducted. Among the three possible candidates for Taipei mayor, Chen Shizhong is indeed the tail of the crane, and he is behind the support of the Kuomintang Jiang Wan'an and the Taiwan People's Party. As for New Taipei City , let alone, the Green Camp recently used the "Ene Case" to attack the Kuomintang Hou Youyi with the "Ene Case" and Hou is still far ahead. It was reported that Chen Shizhong had the intention to retreat, and Luo Zhizheng also announced that he would not choose. This is not surprising. Who would be a cannon fodder? Or the "British Clan" sees recent developments and finds that it is necessary to rob Shuangbei to run for election, but if it cannot swallow it, it will be choked. Why not just give it to other factions?

However, the DPP runs for the election of mayor of New Taipei against Hou Youyi, and anyone is cannon fodder. Logically, New Taipei City is Su Zhenchang's territory. Su Qiaohui, the daughter of the Su family and the green camp, squats in the cowshed to wait to choose the mayor of New Taipei. But Su Zhenchang should not let his daughter come out to sacrifice and fight at the end of the year. The "British" Luo Zhizheng did not choose, and the "President Congress" Lin Jialong did not choose, so the ball would be thrown to Su Zhenchang.

can be predicted that at the end of the year, except for counties and cities that are green and green, such as Tainan, , Kaohsiung, , Pingtung, the election situation of the DPP is not easy. The important reason is that the economic situation deteriorates. Taiwan raised electricity prices in July. Although it only adjusted industries and large households, it would inevitably lead to the rise in daily living prices. In addition, the food prices that were originally rising due to the Russian-Ukrainian war soared, and the people complained. Both France and Spain were defeated in the June election. If the United States and NATO still want to continue the Russian-Ukrainian war, the probability of defeat in the United States in the November midterm election is very high. If the development remains unchanged, Taiwan's "nine-in-one" local elections in November can be called a miracle.

DPP authorities supported Ukraine, the United States and NATO during the Russian-Ukraine War. They gritted their teeth and struggled to deal with the recent economic situation and continued to respond to the United States' boycott of Russia. However, due to the influence of war and inflation , everyone's wallets have shrunk, and the consumer electronics market is not as expected. The Taiwan stock market was dragged down by the United States and plummeted. Even TSMC, which is called "sacred mountain" by Taiwanese people, has been reported to have been cut by major American customers and stock prices plummeted. Taiwan's GDP mainly relies on export of technology products. If TSMC has problems, the consumer electronics market collapses and the economy in Taiwan is in danger. Many economists have already seen the prosperity in the second half of the year very badly, as if they are supporting the common cause of the United States to support Ukraine in continuing to fight.

The victory or defeat of Taiwan's election at the end of the year cannot be judged by simple candidates. Taking Shuangbei City as an example, no matter who the DPP nominates, the results should be similar. The epidemic and the economy are the key. If the epidemic can decline steadily, the border can be lifted in mid-to-late July or August, and the recovery of the tourism industry will drive consumption and employment; in addition, if the Russian-Ukraine war can cease as soon as possible, oil prices will decline and inflation will ease, the DPP will have a better chance.However, Western countries led by the United States are now bound by Russia and China, whether in the face of Russia or China, and put political confrontation above people's livelihood and welfare. They will heal the surge in inflation, soar in food, and plummet in the stock market. They may cause economic storms and have to fight to the end. It is not optimistic whether they can turn back.

Under this circumstance, the DPP election will be in danger at the end of the year. If the election is not good, Tsai Ing-wen may have to resign as chairman of the DPP to show responsibility and will continue to run until the 2024 election. Biden 's tough attitude towards the Russian-Ukrainian war now seems to be digging holes to let himself and his allies jump together. (Article source: China Review News Agency)