The election of county and city mayors in Taiwan has entered the final stage. New polls are released almost every day. Most of the data can be verified interactively, but there are still several poll numbers that surveyed parallel universe . Not only does it have a huge gap with other conclusions, but the detailed data are also contradictory. So among the massive polls, which one is more credible, and is there a way to highlight the truth behind it through certain operating methods?
Zhou Weihang
Taiwan current affairs commentator Zhou Weihang wrote an article in Taiwan media that because the media and polling institutions often have obvious political stances, even if telephone interviews are operated according to scientific methods, the polling data produced may have a considerable degree of "organizational effect". For example, many politicians believe that the polls made by "TVBS" should be reduced by 5%, or the green camp should be increased by 5%, so that the truth is closer to the truth; while the polls made by "Sanli" or "Freedom Times" are the opposite, the green camp should be reduced by 5%, or the blue camp should be increased by 5%. But this has reached 10%, which basically means that the original numbers are really "for reference only".
The article also pointed out that taking Taipei City as an example, Jiang Wanan is currently leading alone in the " Future Event Exchange " during the session, followed by Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong, but the latter two are not much different; this trading trend is in line with most public polls, because traders mainly judge based on polls and social trends. But obviously several polls were "skipped" by traders, such as the "Speech" at the end of August and the "Freedom Times" poll at the beginning of September, both won by Chen Shizhong, but traders seemed to think that the numbers of these two companies were "too dangerous", so Chen's market trend did not fluctuate significantly at the time. "TVBS" also launched a poll in early October where Jiang Wan'an's support rate was approximately equal to Chen Shizhong and Huang Shanshan, and traders also did not accept it.
The article continues to point out that Taoyuan is also in a fierce battle. For example, the poll of the "Liberty Times" in mid-September stated that Zheng Yunpeng was 5%, but was caught showing that there are many contradictions in his detailed data, such as the gender ratio cannot match. If it were not for fraud, it might be that the poll host's mathematics was too bad. Although this data has not become the main factor for traders to consider, because there are other leading polls in the future, he still only lags behind Zhang Shanzheng by a slight margin during the trading session of the "Future Event Exchange".
The article said that Hsinchu City also has some polls with question marks. Before July, Lin Gengren had obvious advantages in many polls, but with the outbreak of Lin Zhijian's plagiarism case, by the time Gao Hongan officially ran for election, Gao Hongan had already led in many polls. It was not until the poll hosted by pro-green scholars at the end of September that he lagged behind Shen Huihong for the first time, and the "Freedom Times" poll in mid-October lost to Shen Huihong at a similar ratio again. The Green Camp believes that this change is because of the effect of their misunderstandings in chasing Gao Hongan all the way, but traders at the "Future Event Exchange" are still not very willing to buy it. Even if someone buys Shen Huihong in large quantities, Shen Huihong still only rose by 1%, which means that more selling orders believe that her strength is still some distance away from Gao Hongan.
The article ends with the article saying that because the polls are true and false, the campaign headquarters that does not want to spend money will add up all public polls and average them. Anyway, if everyone does it seriously, the institutional effect of media A will be flattened by the institutional effect of media B with the opposite ideological ; if both sides are fake, then the fake part of C will be offset by the fake part of D, and once in a while, it will return to the starting point. Of course, if one party commits fraud many times, it may still cause the overall data to deviate. What should we do at this time? There is an industry concept that "leading people don't need to do so many polls to prove that they are leading, and losers need to do poll verification tactics to verify whether the polls are effective." When you see the polls, please enjoy this sentence. (Editor: Fang Yanyan)
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