[Text/Observer Network Zhou Yibo]
British Prime Minister Tras's sudden resignation forced the British Conservative Party to launch the party's first election again. Currently, the most likely candidates to succeed include former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak , former Prime Minister Johnson and House of Commons Conservative leader Modot.
According to Sky News, on October 22 local time, Johnson, who had previously been on vacation with his family abroad, flew back to the UK quickly and informed his allies that he would participate in the party's first election. According to the British " Sun ", Johnson and Sunak had a secret meeting that night to try to reach an agreement on "who will serve as prime minister."
However, the Sun, which was the first to report the news, was not sure what the outcome of the negotiations between the two sides were, and only used "whether it was negotiated or not" as the title of the report. The British "Sunday Telegraph" reported that the two sides discussed the possibility of "joint run" to avoid the split of the Conservative Party .
As of now, Sunak and Johnson have not officially announced their participation in the party's first election. Modot was the only one to announce his candidacy, but is still seeking the support of 100 Conservative MPs to reach the threshold for candidacy. Based on the analysis of multiple mainstream media , Sunak and Johnson each have a faction of support within the party, but the outside world is worried that they will not be able to unite the entire Conservative Party.
Screenlightenment report screenshot of the Sun
"We need serious and honest leaders"
After Tras announced his resignation, who will become the successor will also quickly attract the attention of all parties. Sunak and Johnson have been regarded as "big favorites" in succession to the throne of prime minister by many mainstream British media. The two have their own advantages and disadvantages, and have also received firm support from two factions within the Conservative Party.
According to Bloomberg, Johnson has gained support from the right-wing party - they mostly supported Tras in the last party's top election, while Sunak is more favored by moderate factions within the party.
Among the senior members of the Conservative Party, former Home Secretary Priti Patel did not announce who she supported in the last party’s top election, but made it clear that she now supports Johnson. David Frost , who once served in the Johnson administration, said that although Sunak did not support the former in the previous competition with Trass, Sunak is indeed a suitable candidate for the position of prime minister.
In addition, Secretary of State Tom Tugandat, who is in charge of security affairs, and former Health Secretary Sayed Javid have expressed support for Sunak. The two Conservatives, who were well-known to the party, participated in the last party's top election, had not supported Sunak before.
What surprised many parties even more was that Kemi Badnoch, the Minister of International Trade, who has attracted much attention in the right wing of the party, also chose to support Sunak. Badnoch said in the Sunday Times that she worked with Sunak in the Treasury, had a clear understanding of each other's abilities and now "the serious, honest leaders we need."
Sky News believes that for Johnson, Badnoch's choice is a disadvantage because it may lead Sunak to separate the votes from the party's right wing. Bloomberg analyzed that Sunak's reputation within the Conservative Party is still growing because he has successfully predicted that Tras' economic policies will cause market chaos.
British International Trade Minister Badnoch (left) and former Chancellor Sunak
"Big Hot" that is difficult to maintain the unity within the party
0 Even though the support of the top leaders within the party has increased significantly, from the outside world, Sunak still cannot win the favor of the "whole Conservative Party".
In July this year, when Johnson was in a ruling crisis due to a scandal of "hiding subordinates", Sunak, then the Chancellor of the Chancellor, took the lead in resigning and triggered a "resignation wave" of the government, becoming the "fuse" for Johnson's resignation. After Johnson resigned, he carried out party first-ranking election activities in a hurry - which led to supporters who supported Johnson accusing Sunak of putting his ambitions above the country and lacking "loyalty" to Johnson.
The Financial Times believes that due to the firm opposition from some party insiders represented by Johnson's allies, Sunak finds it difficult to reunite the now-severely divided Conservative Party, which is his biggest resistance to winning this party's first election.
However, Johnson's situation was not better. Bloomberg said many people are worried that Johnson’s past mistakes such as “party doors” and other mistakes will continue to hinder him from maintaining party unity and will also be difficult to reverse the decline in the Tory public support rating.
It is worth noting that in the two categories of the Conservative Party and the general public, Johnson and Sunak's support is exactly the opposite.
A quick survey of 530 Conservative members from British polling firm YouGov from October 17 to 18 showed that Johnson received the highest party approval rating (32%) and Sunak ranked second (23%) when asked about "who do you most hope if Tras resigns in the next few weeks".
. A YouGov survey of 1,700 random British adults from the 20th to the 21st showed that 43% of respondents said Sunak was more competent in the position of prime minister, with a net approval rating of 3%. Johnson received only 34% of the approval rating, and the net approval rating was -22%.
The results of the British public's investigation on "who is more competent in the position of British Prime Minister" Source: YouGov
Johnson "secretly meets" Sunak to discuss who will be Prime Minister
As of the time of publication, neither Sunak nor Johnson officially announced his participation in the Conservative Party's top election. But according to Sky News, Johnson flew back to London from Dominican Republic on the morning of the 22nd.
Previously, Johnson was on vacation in the Caribbean region with his family. This time he returned to China to take British Airways economy class.
According to the Sun, Johnson has informed his allies that he will participate in the election and immediately start canvassing. For example, he told Conservative MP Lee Anderson that if he wins, he will bring the country back on his feet.
Conservative MP Ben Bradley said that Johnson "made a mistake" and that he was "angry at him" in the past year, but after communicating with Johnson, he decided to "give him another chance" because "he is attractive to voters."
"No one can attract people like him, get people involved in politics, and become interested in politics."
At the same time, Johnson also had a secret meeting with Sunak on the night of the 22nd to try to reach an agreement on "who will be prime minister" - if the agreement is reached, one of them will serve as prime minister and the other will receive a senior cabinet position.
However, the Sun, which was the first to report on this matter, was not sure what the outcome of the negotiations between the two sides were, and only used "whether it was negotiated or not" as the title of the report. The Sunday Telegraph reported that the two sides discussed the possibility of "joint candidacy" but did not mention the final result.
Johnson was preparing to play table football with the then Chanak Chanak during his tenure as prime minister. Photo source: Sky News
" All three of them must unite "
This meeting between Johnson and Chanak happened to meet the expectations of many people within the Conservative Party - let the two dialects reconcile and unite to bridge the rift within the party.
"They need to reach an agreement, they need to settle." A senior supporter of Sunak said, "Just like when Gordon Brown let Peter Mandelson come back, this is the only way."
Former British Conservative Party vice chairman and main donor of the Conservative Party Michael Ashcroft urged Johnson to support Sunak on social media, saying, "No matter how talented Johnson has, it is no longer his time."
According to the Sunday Times, the Defense Secretary Wallace, who has made it clear that he will not participate in this election, said that he also called Johnson and hoped that the other party can cooperate with Sunak and Modant.
"I hope to see a 'triumvirate'." Wallace said, "For the sake of the country, all three of them must unite and leave themselves aside.”
According to Reuters , Wallace said in an interview that he currently prefers Johnson because Johnson led the Conservative Party to win the general election in 2019, and he recognized Johnson's ability to unite the Conservative Party.
British Secretary of Defense Ben Wallace
According to the arrangements of the British Conservative Party, the threshold for participating in the party's first election is quite high: as of October 24, at least 100 of the 357 Conservative MPs will be able to run for the election. This also means that there will be only three official candidates at most in this election.
Sky News statistics show that as of now, Sunak has received support from 121 Conservative MPs and has taken the lead in crossing the threshold for candidacy. Johnson has temporarily received only 56 support.
Modort officially announced his participation in this party's first election on the 21st, and she is also the only person to announce her candidacy so far. But on Sky According to the statistics of News, Modott received only 23 Conservative MPs' support.
Graham Brady, the chairman of the "1922 Committee" who supervises the election, previously stated that if only one candidate receives sufficient support, the new party leader will be directly confirmed on the 24th and then replace Tras as British Prime Minister.
If there are three official candidates, the candidate with the least vote will be directly eliminated. Conservative MPs will then be in the UK in summer :30 to 20:30 on tml3 on 24th, the remaining two candidates will be voted in a directional manner between 18:30 and 20:30, and the results will be announced at 21:00 on the same day.
If no one quits after the directional voting, all Conservative Party members will participate in the online voting to determine the winner. Before the voting ends, the two candidates are expected to participate in a TV debate, and the winner will be generated on October 28.
Number of Conservative Party members who support Johnson, Modant and Sunak. Source: Sky News
This article is an exclusive article by Observer.com and may not be reproduced without authorization.
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