The inflation in September just released by the UK was 10.1%, a rebound from 9.9% in August. can be said: inflation can be repeated. means that Feder has a long way to go to suppress inflation.
stimulated by this negative news, Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index plummeted by more than 2% today, with only 16,500 points left. Hong Kong stocks plummeted, and has other factors that they dare not analyze . Anyone who understands it understands it.
Ten-year U.S. bond yield, today's highest intraday trading, was lifted to 4.073%. It can be said that after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in early November, it may be above 4.2%.
This is Market US dollar interest rate .
The inflation in the United States is likely to be similar to that in the UK and will continue to repeat. In fact, before the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the Fed's asset statement was only 0.87 trillion US dollars, which is now ten times 8.7 trillion US dollars ( reduced the balance sheet a little bit), which means that the current prices must be several times the average from 2000 to 2006.
So unless the Fed gives up the goal of suppressing inflation, as shown in the following news screenshot, it is rumored that the probability of the United States' recession in the next year is 100%. That is to say, unless the Fed gives up its target of suppressing inflation due to the recession, next year, the U.S. Treasury yield in will exceed 5% in the past ten years, which is a high probability event .
Why will the United States decline 100% next year? Because, the yield on US Treasury will rise above 5% in ten years, triggering a recession in the United States. is cause and effect. First, the US Treasury yield exceeded 5% in ten years, and then the US economy was forced to recession because of the high US dollar interest rate in this market.
Tencent plummeted again today, and the stock price fell back to HK$244.
Foreign capital is running away due to reasons that cannot be described in depth. Tencent’s major South African shareholder is likely to continue to reduce its holdings in a clearance manner.
After foreign capital reduced its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, the Hong Kong dollar retreated against the US dollar. In this way, the liquidity of HK will be reduced in the future. Because HK comes first with US dollars, and then issue Hong Kong dollars.
Foreign capital breaks out, which means HK shrinks its monetary policy. Moreover, some Hong Kong rich people moved to Singapore , which is equivalent to shrinking monetary policy.
After the liquidity of Hong Kong dollar decreases, it will not be able to support the Hong Kong stock market, so that Hong Kong stocks will be seriously undervalued.
Due to the substitution effect of Singapore , in the future, IPO in HK Hong Kong stocks will not raise much money.
The era of going to Singapore's IPO may be coming.
The US Treasury Department just released in August 1 Central banks hold U.S. bonds position .
Japan reduced its holdings to $1.199 trillion from $1.234 trillion in July. my country's position has basically remained unchanged, while the UK has increased its position from US$634.6 billion to US$644.7 billion.
It can be said that the Bank of Japan's yen defense battle means that they will continue to reduce their holdings of US debt. The UK may eventually launch a war to defend the pound, and the same is true for the RMB.
, this, China, Japan and the UK will be US$2.7 trillion in US bond positions.
At present, the sum of the total amount of US debt held by central banks of all countries remains unchanged, with a total of US$7.5 trillion at the end of August and a total of US$7.5 trillion at the end of July.
yen exchange rate is already 149.46, and it is about to break through the 150 mark.
In the process of the depreciation of the yen from 150 to 160 , the Bank of Japan will definitely launch many wars to defend the yen, and then sell US bonds on a large scale to cash in the US dollar and buy yen, boosting the exchange rate .
html After the Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points in early November, once China and the UK also join the local currency defense war, the yield on US Treasury in the past ten years may rise by 4.2%, even 4.5%, or even 4.X%.
Data released by the US Treasury Department on October 17th, the total amount of US Treasury bonds is 31.211 trillion US dollars.
again: set a new record high!
The US Treasury Department issues additional US bonds, combined with the urgent need for China, Japan and Britain to sell US bonds to ensure exchange rates, where is the top of the ten-year US bond yield? we can only wait and see: Will the Fed kneel down?
U.S. stocks violently rose, which is to bet that the Federal Reserve will kneel down and then the credit will go bankrupt.
Once the Fed kneels down on , the dollar index will plummet, and the pressure on the depreciation of the yen, pound, and the depreciation pressure of the renminbi will disappear. gold will start a bull market .
Yesterday, among the US S&P 500 component stocks, the most rising were military industry stocks and cruise stocks.
CCL, NCLH and RCL are cruise stocks, and LMT and NOC are military stocks. US stocks are green, and red is falling.
can also produce F-35 stealth fighter jets, and can also produce dimensionality reduction to attack the Russian Lockheed Martin. If it is in Big A, it will definitely be more valuable than Moutai.
If the Federal Reserve fights to the end, there may be no bull market in the next 3-5 years.
Tonight, it depends on whether the yield on US Treasury in the past ten years can reach 4.1%.
American housing slave, choose floating interest rates, has left to : X months left.
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