Author: Chief Researcher of Oriental Think Tank Zhou Xisheng
Starting from Monday (August 24), local time, the Republican Party of the United States began to hold a national congress to officially launch a full-scale counterattack against the Democratic Party and its presidential candidate Biden. Like the Democratic Party, the congress is also four days. Last week, the Democratic Party's united, united and passionate National Convention, especially Biden's "most outstanding speech" in his life delivered on the last night, won the attention of the Democratic Party and Biden and the public's praise from American voters, but Trump was very unhappy because Biden's poll approval rating further increased.
As the election on November 3 is approaching, Trump is mobilizing various resources and strength to compete with Biden. The four-day Republican National Convention is expected to roar continuously. Trump's campaign revealed that the president will put forward more bold, radical and incitemental slogans in his policy speech to deal with Biden, who is on the left. However, whether the election situation can be changed is not the final say. The key lies in the judgment of Biden and Trump by many American voters.
(Data picture: On May 18, 2019, former US Vice President and Democrat Joe Biden delivered a speech at a rally held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA. Source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie)
US election: Who is responsible for ups and downs?
The total population of the United States is about 330 million, and the registered voters who meet the conditions are about 140 million. More than half of the U.S. population currently belongs to Gen Z or Millennials. Generation Z is roughly defined as people born between 1995 and 2010, some of whom will usher in their first presidential election vote in their lives, accounting for about 10% of the total number of voters. They are not active in voting because overall they feel that candidates from both parties are unattractive.
Millennials mainly point to a generation born in the last century but reached adult age after entering the 21st century (i.e. 2000). The growth period of this generation is almost consistent with the formation of the Internet/computer science and the period of rapid development. Its representative figure is Facebook founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg (born on May 14, 1984). Generation Z and millennials are the main force of American voters, so they are also widely regarded as the decisive force of this year's US election. If we only consider voting factors, Trump's "win and loss" in fighting for the presidential throne depends largely on them.
The United States is a "young country" that has been founded only 244 years ago. Young people are particularly active in this society. Many inventions and creations in the United States that have influenced the world since the advent of computers and the Internet are mostly derived from the ideas and entrepreneurship of young people. However, most of the US presidential candidates are middle-aged and elderly people. This year's general election, from the party's primary election to the present, most of the big bosses are middle-aged and elderly people.
Even the Democratic Party with free and active thinking is the two old men, Sanders and Biden, are far ahead from beginning to end, and several young campaigners were defeated very early, which shows that the "young country" of the United States is still a political old man in charge of politics.
But at the critical moment of the decisive battle, young voters, especially Gen Z voters who only account for 10% of the total number of voters, whether to vote or not is important, because most of the basic platforms of Trump and Biden are middle-aged and elderly people. If Gen Z voters have their own feelings and consensus and focus on one person, this will largely determine who wins. Therefore, both Trump and Biden are striving to compete for these young voters.
Age Biden: Trying to show his thoughts to be younger
In terms of age, there is no obvious difference between Trump and Biden. Trump was born on June 14, 1946 and is over 74 years old, while Joe Biden was born on November 20, 1942 and is about to turn 78 years old. The average age of American voters is 38 years old. This calculation shows that Trump's age is nearly twice the average age of American voters, while Biden is more than twice the average age. If Trump competes in age, he has a slight advantage over Biden, but his policy propositions are full of American tradition, conservative and far-right thinking, and therefore do not have an advantage among young voters.
(Data picture: Biden and his running mate, US Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Kamala Harris (right).Source: Xinhua News Agency)
Biden noticed this important situation. Therefore, although he is a few years older than Trump, since his victory within the party, he has tried his best to reach a private deal and tacit understanding with Sanders, who represents the favor and support of young voters in the Democratic Party. fully absorbs Sanders' left-wing propositions, so he looks younger than Trump in terms of ideological and policy orientation.
But Biden's actual age is there, which has caused psychological barriers to many voters, especially young voters. Special preparations have seen several obvious slips in the campaign speeches this year, such as he accusing Trump of leading the United States of failing to fight the epidemic, resulting in the new coronavirus "killing 120 million Americans"; he once said 150 million Americans died of gun violence. Such a tongue error is much higher than the actual data. Some American public opinion mocked and questioned that the United States is so active, with the young, sunny and handsome Clinton and Obama, who were on the stage, how did this become only 74-year-old Trump vs. 77-year-old Biden, allowing these two elderly people who should have spent their old age in nursing homes to show off on the campaign stage.
The United States is "young", but the presidential candidate is old
American "Politics" magazine website recently published an article to conduct a detailed analysis of Biden's age and related issues. The article points out that Joe Biden, who is more than 77 years old and nine months old, is nearly one-third of the history of the United States as an independent country. Although he lives healthily, people have two ways of thinking - One way of thinking is: Biden is really old; the other way of thinking is: The United States is indeed very young.
If Biden eventually defeats Trump and wins this year's election, he will become the oldest resident of the White House - his first day of office will be 78 days older than the day when the original "elderly president" Ronald Reagan took office. Judging from Biden's current age, he is older than 94% of all living Americans and 96% of all living people on Earth. He is already older than the age of 27 U.S. presidents who died—one of whom was 14 years older than President Franklin D. Roosevelt and 13 years older than President Linden B. Johnson.
Recall that when Biden, 30, came to the U.S. Senate on January 3, 1973, he was one of the youngest senators in American history. Biden was energetic and young and promising at that time. At that time, all the 100 members of the US Senate were men, and only one was not white. Many of them have passed away, and only 13 are still alive today, and Biden is one of them.
It can be seen from this that Biden's political qualifications are unmatched in today's American political arena. If he wins in November, he will be the only historical divide between the "greatest generation" of the United States during World War II and the "baby boomer" generation who has dominated American national politics since the early 1990s.
If you look positively and positively, Biden's relatively old age is an "a useful lens" to observe his hope to lead the United States, a relatively young country. Biden not only understands the reality of the United States, but also understands the past of the United States. His life experience alone has spanned a long and distant historical era. It should be said that this is a precious life experience and political experience.
Biden's strengths: Experience extraordinary
Since Biden was born on November 20, 1942, about 155 million Americans have passed away. According to rough demographic estimates, Biden's life overlaps with more than 80% of people living in the United States since 1776. "Imagine Joe Biden bounced on the knee of a person of the same age as he is now born earlier than Biden, and in theory he or she might have bounced on the knee of then-President Abraham Lincoln."
(Data picture: On December 19, 2012, then-US President Obama (right) and then-US Vice President Biden attended a press conference at the White House in Washington. Source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Fang Zhe)
According to the demographic practices of the United States, the "baby boom" generation did not start until January 1, 1946. This means that if Biden wins, he will be the only American politician in history who is older than this generation and becomes president .At that time, the "baby boom" Americans were too young to participate in World War II. They lacked a perceptual understanding of the history of World War II and the United States during World War II.
The presidency was held by eight people in the United States, both in different identities during World War II, from the 40 years since the victory of Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and George H.W. Bush's defeat in 1992. But after Bill Clinton won in 1992, the White House has been under the control of four "baby boomers", none of whom are full-time soldiers. Obama was born in 1961 and was only 11 years old when the Vietnam War ended in the United States and probably didn’t have much identity with the older people of the “Baby Boomer”. But Biden is different, he is clear about the Vietnam War in the United States.
Life experience is very important for politicians, especially the US president. Because of their rich and different experiences, he also has different understandings, thinking and decision-making judgments about US domestic and foreign affairs. Biden is only 43 months older than Trump and 45 months older than Clinton, but the historical significance and differences over the past three years are huge.
Judging from Biden's photos at the University of Delaware in 1965, he was like most young people in his class: a young man with a smile and shy face, wearing a jacket, a tie, and his hair was neatly trimmed. But three or four years later, these photos show that social and cultural changes occurred in the United States at that time, which was reflected in Biden's long hair, beard and beaded necklace. These postures reflect a rebellious and personal ostentatious atmosphere in American society at that time.
Sociologists call Americans who entered adulthood after World War II and before the turmoil in the 1960s "a silent generation." But as a politician, the eloquent Biden was hardly known for his silence at the time, although he did represent the classic values of the "silent generation" of the United States in other ways, who valued national and organizational responsibilities, respected establishment institutions, worked hard to abide by the rules and rose in it. They did not present exciting challenges to governments, universities and businesses. This is very different from the thoughts and styles of later-born people in the United States, especially politicians. The political environment at that time had a great impact on Biden's life.
Biden's weaknesses: Not familiar with the new media
Although Biden failed to run for president twice, he has always been active in the political stage of the United States, is very familiar with the internal and foreign affairs of the United States, and has always shown calmness and sophistication, which is in sharp contrast to Trump. But Biden also has weaknesses in some ways. Before the popularity of television sets in the living room of home in the United States, Biden was a teenager; before the appearance of office computers, he spent 10 years in the Senate; before the emergence of emails, he spent nearly a quarter of a century in the Senate, and far less familiar with social media such as Twitter and Instagram than Trump.
Historical data from the U.S. Senate shows that Biden worked with many senior American politicians during his 36-year senatorial career and 8-year vice presidential career, including Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and George McGovern in the Senate. Biden has a mild personality. He has a harmonious relationship with these senior senators and has received a lot of care, support, help and support from them. Biden is characterized by his good at getting along with others, while Trump is characterized by his habit of arguing with others and angrily arguing with others.
Biden has had many personal experiences on the issue of race in the United States. When Biden was 24 years old, it was the "long and hot summer" of the 1967 urban racial riots in the United States. When Biden was born, Martin Luther King was 13 years old and when King died, Biden was 25 years old. Biden hopes to "write his own personal experience into the story of a country" and hopes that this story will still be in the early stages and will eventually bring political and social stability to the United States.
Some public opinion believes that although old age is not the advantage of Biden's running for president, it is still a tradition and political wealth that the United States today is needed. People hope Biden can pass on this political wealth, and hope that if he wins this presidential election, he can lead and train some young aides, because these people will play an important role in American political life.
However, since Trump came to power, there have been structural changes in the United States, and voters of the mainstream, traditional and Gen Z have their own preferences. Maybe Biden is their favorite, maybe not. Regardless of the final result, this election will reflect the transformation of the United States.
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