Source: Kungfu Finance (ID: kongfuf)
The cutest one is someone else's cat, the docile one is someone else's dog, and the most profitable one is the funds bought by others. Recently, someone asked me: "The funds I bought in the past few years are still losing 30% to 50%, and other funds have risen 30% to 50%. What should I do? Should I continue to buy the same cost, or just cut off the loss?"
is in sharp contrast to some funds doubling in the past three years, and other funds have fallen by more than half in the past three years. This huge difference cannot be simply attributed to the low level of fund managers or misjudgment. Another important reason cannot be ignored: the investment style that the fund had agreed to you at the beginning of its establishment (fund prospectus). Since the A-shares plummeted in June 2015, the market style has changed to blue chips and white horses. These stocks have risen exponentially, while most of the small and medium-sized stocks have fallen significantly. If a fund's initial investment style is that it is small and medium-sized investment, or it is simply an index fund of small and medium-sized investment, it can be imagined that poor performance is normal, but good performance is abnormal. When fund investment style is written, the performance of the fund is largely determined by the short-term market style.
To solve the problem at the beginning, we must first start with the reasons that lead to investment losses.
Three reasons for losing money in investment
❶Book the wrong
Buy LeTV, or buy an irregular P2P, and participate in illegal fundraising, which is considered to be buying the wrong . There is a characteristic of buying the wrong situation: it is time to time to lose money, and it is good luck if you don’t lose money for the time being;
is expensive to buy
In June 2015, or in most of the time in 2007, even if you buy the right stocks and funds, the stock market collapsed and fell sharply, and was trapped for several years, so it was expensive to buy. There is also a characteristic when buying expensively: it is time to get back the money, but this time may be a long time. Although you buy it correctly, it is a failed investment;
❸Impatient
Improper buying is not expensive, but I still lose because Improper. "Inexpensive" is not cheap, nor is it the lowest price. It is normal to temporarily lose money when investing. If you can't bear it, you will lose money if you sell it.
A fund buys at least dozens of stocks and at most hundreds of stocks. From the perspective of diversified investment, it is difficult to buy a wrong way to buy a fund. In the past three years, the main reason is that buying a fund is expensive. When buying expensively, the time to pay back the capital may be long. For example, at the end of 2007, you have to pay back the capital at least 3 years and 10 years. Most people who lose money in fund investments are because they buy expensively.
Since "buying is expensive" is the main reason, how should we avoid it?
Avoid popular funds, learn to value the market
The first thing you need to do is to avoid popular funds. People are born to like inductive reasoning. Through history, most of our life experience is composed of inductive reasoning, such as being hungry if you don’t eat, being thirsty if you don’t drink water, and the sun will rise as usual tomorrow, etc. However, investment problems are easily ruined by inductive reasoning. Selecting funds through historical performance is extremely unreliable. Before, small and medium-sized capital funds performed well and ranked high, and then everyone flocked to them, thinking that they will be so good in the future, which is the same as stock trading chasing ups and selling downs.
The second is to learn a simple valuation method of the market. For example, the P/E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is in an overvalued area when it reaches above 17.
And what was June 2015? It has reached more than 18, and the overall market is overvalued, and it is more risky to buy equity-oriented funds.
(Data source: Wind)
Self-rescue method for money-loss funds
After more than two years of adjustment, the prices of small and medium-sized stocks are no longer so expensive, and it is not wise to redeem them now. It is recommended to continue holding. If you have economic strength and don’t have much money in your hands, you can continue to invest by changing to a fixed investment method to reduce the cost. It is reminded that if you sell these funds in the future, you should not "return to your capital". You should also be based on your valuation and you should only sell them after overvalued.
If you develop a valuation perspective and invest in funds, then I do not recommend "stop loss". Stop loss is a solution used in technical analysis to admit mistakes. Since you do not recognize the value, when the price fluctuates adversely, measures are taken to prevent greater losses.
To give a simple example: you spend 100 yuan to buy a one-year treasury bond, the interest is 3%, and you plan to get 103 yuan in one year, along with principal and interest. Before one year, you saw that the market price of this bond was 80 yuan. Since you bought it for 100 yuan, your account shows a floating loss of -20%. If a person doesn't even know what the bond is, he will panic, he will be afraid of continuing to fall, and may stop losing 20 yuan; but if you know the bond, make sure you can repay it, and you will get 3 yuan in return after 1 year.
goes further. If you think you are undervalued at 80 yuan, you will buy more bonds and get 103 yuan after maturity, and the annualized yield is even as high as 30% (23/80).
In short, learning to see the value clearly is the easiest way to help you stop loss and make profits. The same applies to investing in funds and stocks. You must win first and then fight. If you are not sure that you can win at the beginning, then don’t act.
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