According to Taiwanese media, the pro-green media "Beautiful Island Electronic News" recently released the latest poll of Taipei mayor by Taiwanese poll expert Dai Li'an. The support of the Kuomintang Taipei mayor candidate Jiang Wan'an was 29.6%, the non-party Taipei mayor candidate Huang Shanshan was 28.1%, and the Democratic Progressive Party Taipei mayor candidate Chen Shizhong was 27.8%. The three were in a stalemate, which attracted outside attention. Dai Li'an said on the radio program that this is the most difficult time to talk about abandoning security, because Jiang Wan'an, Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong all have 30% support, and the vote rate of the elected person should not exceed 40%.
Picture source Taiwan media
The election at the end of the year has reached the end of the year, and the election for mayor in Taipei has attracted much attention. Chen Donghao, the host of the radio program "Baodao Rolls", showed two polls, one for Dai Li'an to execute the "Beautiful Island Electronic News" and the other for "TVBS". The results are very different. According to the latest Taipei Mayor poll of "TVBS", Jiang Wan'an's support level has increased by 4%, and he has reached 40%, which is currently winning the championship, significantly ahead of the other two candidates; while Huang Shanshan's support level is 23% in second place; Chen Shizhong is close to the back, with a support level of 22%. Chen Donghao questioned that after Chen Shizhong's controversy over media person Zhou Yukou , Jiang Wan'anli should have benefited from pulling the polls, but why is there still a stalemate in the "Beautiful Island Electronic News"?
Dai Li'an explained that different institutions will have different situations when comparing polls, and the time, sample structure and topics are different. When talking about polls, people are prone to confuse votes and support ratings. The denominators of the two are completely different. Generally, polls will calculate the overall voters, including those who do not vote. The polls in "TVBS" have filtered out those who do not vote, so the denominator is different samples, so there seems to be a gap.
Why does Jiang Wanan’s support decrease instead of increasing? Dai Li'an pointed out that in the polls made in these few times, Jiang Wan'an's polls were within the error range and there was almost no big change. In the long run, the three people from the three-legged governor in Taipei City will actually have a vote rate of more than 30%. Chen Donghao asked a question, so it means that before the poll is closed to , will these three people be in such a stalemate? Dai Li'an smiled and said that this should be true. After the public closed down, there was no poll information. The final poll information should be a sample made half a month ago. Therefore, voters may be panic and will become a good tool and strategy for political parties to operate.
However, Dai Li'an also pointed out that when all three people account for 30%, it will be difficult to get rid of the insurance, and it is no longer comparable to the situation of the 3-foot governor abandoning the insurance in Taipei mayoral election in 1994. Huang Shanshan is not Huang Dazhou, the then mayor candidate at Taipei, and the important factor this time is the hatred value, which will lead to the public's psychological hesitation in voting.
Dai Li'an emphasized that it is really difficult to estimate the vote rate of Chen Shizhong, Jiang Wan'an and Huang Shanshan. However, in this year's Taipei City election, the final winner should not necessarily be 40%. This election is difficult to analyze using the previous blue and green duel. In the eight years since Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je's "ruling", the so-called blue and green color has actually gradually faded. Although it is still blue is greater than green, but it is not as strong as before.
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