The market fell across the board yesterday, with the three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%, while the balance of leveraged funds with extremely sensitive risk appetite quietly rose. As of August 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange financing balance was 523.861 billion yuan, an increase of 138 million yuan from the previous trading day; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance was 344.145 billion yuan, an increase of 449 million yuan; the two markets had a total of 868.006 billion yuan, an increase of 587 million yuan. On August 13 and August 14, the balance of the two-way financing increased to a certain extent, of which 1.21 billion yuan was increased on August 13.
analysts said that the increase in margin balances is related to the recovery of investor sentiment and the increase in risk appetite. The current A-share market has limited downside space in many aspects, and the rebound logic is still there, which can attract the entry of higher risk-favorable funds to a certain extent.
Balance of two-financial bonds increased
Since July 11, except for the Balance of two-financial bonds exceeded 900 billion yuan on July 12, the balance of two-financial bonds exceeded 900 billion yuan on July 12, and the balance of two-financial bonds showed a downward trend on most trading days. From July 27 to August 8, the balance of two-financial bonds fell for nine consecutive days. In recent trading days, the balance of two-financial bonds increased by 1.21 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day. On August 14, the balance of two-financial bonds increased by 587 million yuan compared with the previous trading day, and the balance of two-financial bonds increased for two consecutive trading days.
As of August 13, when the balance of the two securities lending balance increased significantly, in what aspects have the leveraged funds been operated? Data shows that by industry, among the 28 first-level industries that Shenwan belongs to, 14 industries with increased financing balances on August 13, and the industry with the largest increase was banks, with financing balances increasing by 421 million yuan; followed by non-bank finance and food and beverage industries, with financing balances increasing by 378 million yuan and 314 million yuan respectively.
Specifically for stock , there are 420 target stocks whose financing balance has increased, accounting for 44.21%, of which the financing balance of 14 shares has increased by more than 5%. The largest increase in financing balance was Taiji Shares , with the latest financing balance of the stock being 584 million yuan, an increase of 10.48% over the previous trading day; in terms of stock price performance, Taiji Shares rose 1.50% on August 13, stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index; Yanghe Shares and Liuguo Chemical also increased by a large increase in financing balance, with a growth of 9.85% and 8.11% respectively.
Compared with the sharp increase in leveraged funds, 528 stocks have seen a decrease in the financing balance, of which 7 have seen a decline in financing balance of more than 5%. Changchun Hi-Tech's financing balance declined the largest, with the latest financing balance of 965 million yuan. Compared with the previous trading day, the financing balance decreased by 8.54%; the stocks with a large decline in financing balance include Broadband and Shiji Information, and the financing balances decreased by 8.02% and 7.98% respectively.
analysts said that as a symbolic indicator, the increase in the balance of margin financing and securities lending is a reflection of the recovery of market sentiment. Although the A-share market has fluctuated and declined in recent trading days, the attractiveness of A-shares is becoming stronger, attracting some funds with higher risk preferences to enter the market.
Back-up confidence has risen
China Merchants Securities said that in terms of horizontal comparison, the current valuation level of A-shares is at the lowest level in the world and the lowest level in the historical low level vertically, and has fully responded to various negative factors. In the short term, the panic may still be repeated, but if the time range is slightly extended, the valuation level of a large number of companies is already quite attractive.
On the other hand, the semi-annual report from listed companies also reflects the good fundamentals of the company. Choice data shows that as of noon on August 15, a total of 769 listed companies in the two cities announced their semi-annual reports, of which 570 companies had year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to parent company shareholders, accounting for 74.12%. Among them, 16 listed companies' net profit attributable to parent company shareholders increased by more than 10 times year-on-year. Qiming Xingchen, Zhongshi Technology, Zhongbing Red Arrow and Zhongji Xuchuang increased by 148.99 times, 102.84 times, 79.59 times and 78.85 times respectively year-on-year.
In addition, the gradual settlement of the capital side is the arrival of incremental funds. CITIC Securities said that since August, the rapid rebound of the consumer sector has reflected that the previous group of investors who had the most firm holding shares in the market began to reduce their positions. From the perspective of short-term fund supply and demand, it is the last round of capital outflow at the end of the bear market. The continued recession of market liquidity is likely to come to an end. On the other hand, recent repurchase, increase in holdings, and northbound capital inflows (there will be the second round of MSCI inflows in the near future) will continue to provide incremental funds to the market.
htmlOn August 14, MSCI announced that it will implement the second step of inclusion of part of China's A-shares into the MSCI China Index, and the inclusion factor will be increased from 2.5% to 5%. At the same time, there are 10 A-share stocks that will be newly added with a 5% inclusion factor, increasing the number of A-shares included in MSCI to 236, accounting for a total of 0.75% of the weight of MSCI emerging market index.Pacific Securities strategy analyst Jin Dalai said that it is conservatively expected that the increase in inclusion factor may bring about 60 billion yuan in incremental funds to the A-share market.
According to choice data statistics, since April, northbound funds have accelerated inflows, and the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds from the Land Port Connect has reached 159.338 billion yuan. Among them, it was 38.65 billion yuan in April, 50.851 billion yuan in May, and a total net inflow of funds in July in June was 56.968 billion yuan, and since August, about 12.869 billion yuan as of August 14.
analysts said that although the A-share market has fluctuated and adjusted again recently, in terms of its operation, some individual stocks have medium- and long-term investment value after this adjustment. However, given the overall lack of liquidity in the market at present, it is expected that the differentiation pattern of A-shares in the future will continue.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund Executive General Manager Yang Delong believes that foreign-related investors increase their positions in MSCI's A-share targets through interconnection channels, which shows that they are optimistic about the development prospects and performance of related A-share companies. As the internationalization of A-shares increases, the pace of foreign capital inflows into A-shares will accelerate. In the past, A-shares were mainly traded by domestic investors. As the proportion of foreign capital expanded, foreign capital would have a certain impact on the trend of A-shares and stock pricing, which would help improve the investor structure and improve the investment style.
CITIC Securities believes that the current policy bottom and capital bottom are gradually settled, and the market is likely to gradually stabilize and upward. The Shanghai Composite Index 2691 points is the market bottom this year, and it is only one step away from the rebound to the reversal.
Wait for a stable rebound
In recent days, the market has fluctuated and fell. Yesterday, the three major indexes fluctuated and fell. More stocks fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2723.26 points, down 2.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8581.18 points, down 2.32%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 1478.51 points, down 2.63%.
Haitong Securities said that the rebound is on the road, and the logic of large declines, low valuations, and loose policy adjustments have not changed. It is normal for to bottom out for the second time. The policy bottom leads the market bottom. The fifth round of historical bottom bottoming still takes time. The right side needs to wait for the peak of deleveraging to pass. Looking back on the previous second bottoming, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 1665 points on October 28, 2008, rebounded to 2101 points on December 9, 2008, and then fell to 1815 points on December 31, 2008; the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 2851 points on August 26, 2015, rebounded at 3257 points on September 9, 2015, and then fell to 2983 points on September 16, 2015; the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 2638 points on January 27, 2016, rebounded at 2934 points on February 22, 2016, and then fell to 2639 points on February 29, 2016.
Haitong Securities further stated that from the perspectives of valuation level, index decline, strong stock rebound, and tiered B fund downward, it is similar to the bottom of the market in the previous few times, and the market is in the bottom area of the fifth cycle.
analysts said that although the current market weakness is still obvious, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market. The recent decline of the two markets is mainly affected by short-term factors, and the time and space for adjustment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes may be limited. At the same time, the positive effect of macroeconomic policy adjustments on the market will also be gradually reflected, which will also boost funds' confidence in the long-term market. Against this background, it may be not long before A-shares usher in a turning point in the later period.
CITIC Securities said that for most investors, the most important thing at the moment is the choice of industry allocation, and adjusting positions is much more important than simply grabbing a rebound. From the perspective of taking into account the short-term increase in returns and long-term track selection, the configuration logic is: choose the direction with the least resistance; the oversold rebound after the negative emotions are fully released; the overall market valuation is at the historical bottom, and the repeated bottoming stage; there is no negative news or suppression factors in the short term; there is a deterministic trend in the long term; and the growth value cycle in style.
(Editor in charge: Chang Shuishu)
Pacific Securities strategy analyst Jin Dalai said that it is conservatively expected that the increase in inclusion factor may bring about 60 billion yuan in incremental funds to the A-share market.
According to choice data statistics, since April, northbound funds have accelerated inflows, and the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds from the Land Port Connect has reached 159.338 billion yuan. Among them, it was 38.65 billion yuan in April, 50.851 billion yuan in May, and a total net inflow of funds in July in June was 56.968 billion yuan, and since August, about 12.869 billion yuan as of August 14.
analysts said that although the A-share market has fluctuated and adjusted again recently, in terms of its operation, some individual stocks have medium- and long-term investment value after this adjustment. However, given the overall lack of liquidity in the market at present, it is expected that the differentiation pattern of A-shares in the future will continue.
Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund Executive General Manager Yang Delong believes that foreign-related investors increase their positions in MSCI's A-share targets through interconnection channels, which shows that they are optimistic about the development prospects and performance of related A-share companies. As the internationalization of A-shares increases, the pace of foreign capital inflows into A-shares will accelerate. In the past, A-shares were mainly traded by domestic investors. As the proportion of foreign capital expanded, foreign capital would have a certain impact on the trend of A-shares and stock pricing, which would help improve the investor structure and improve the investment style.
CITIC Securities believes that the current policy bottom and capital bottom are gradually settled, and the market is likely to gradually stabilize and upward. The Shanghai Composite Index 2691 points is the market bottom this year, and it is only one step away from the rebound to the reversal.
Wait for a stable rebound
In recent days, the market has fluctuated and fell. Yesterday, the three major indexes fluctuated and fell. More stocks fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2723.26 points, down 2.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8581.18 points, down 2.32%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 1478.51 points, down 2.63%.
Haitong Securities said that the rebound is on the road, and the logic of large declines, low valuations, and loose policy adjustments have not changed. It is normal for to bottom out for the second time. The policy bottom leads the market bottom. The fifth round of historical bottom bottoming still takes time. The right side needs to wait for the peak of deleveraging to pass. Looking back on the previous second bottoming, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 1665 points on October 28, 2008, rebounded to 2101 points on December 9, 2008, and then fell to 1815 points on December 31, 2008; the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 2851 points on August 26, 2015, rebounded at 3257 points on September 9, 2015, and then fell to 2983 points on September 16, 2015; the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out at 2638 points on January 27, 2016, rebounded at 2934 points on February 22, 2016, and then fell to 2639 points on February 29, 2016.
Haitong Securities further stated that from the perspectives of valuation level, index decline, strong stock rebound, and tiered B fund downward, it is similar to the bottom of the market in the previous few times, and the market is in the bottom area of the fifth cycle.
analysts said that although the current market weakness is still obvious, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the future market. The recent decline of the two markets is mainly affected by short-term factors, and the time and space for adjustment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes may be limited. At the same time, the positive effect of macroeconomic policy adjustments on the market will also be gradually reflected, which will also boost funds' confidence in the long-term market. Against this background, it may be not long before A-shares usher in a turning point in the later period.
CITIC Securities said that for most investors, the most important thing at the moment is the choice of industry allocation, and adjusting positions is much more important than simply grabbing a rebound. From the perspective of taking into account the short-term increase in returns and long-term track selection, the configuration logic is: choose the direction with the least resistance; the oversold rebound after the negative emotions are fully released; the overall market valuation is at the historical bottom, and the repeated bottoming stage; there is no negative news or suppression factors in the short term; there is a deterministic trend in the long term; and the growth value cycle in style.
(Editor in charge: Chang Shuishu)
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