text/Shiba
As one of the most popular startups for Wall Street investors, Tesla can be said to be in the limelight recently.
Due to the one-day closing on Christmas, Tesla's stock price has climbed to $425.25 per share as of the close of December 24. The rapid soaring stock price has made Tesla's market value exceed US$76 billion, becoming the first stock in the US automotive industry. In the global automotive industry, it is also second only to Toyota and Volkswagen . The changes like
have made Musk very proud, and also made some Wall Street short sellers helpless. Short sellers lost $2 billion this year because of Tesla's strong stock price stretch, according to statistics from financial analysis firm S3 Partners.
is the most well-known American star fund manager and founder of Greenlight Capital David Einhorn. It is one of the long-term investors in Wall Street's favorable Tesla, or Musk's mortal enemy. Some analysts say that Einhorn will likely go from a billionaire to a millionaire without changing his bearish attitude.
In November this year, after Tesla released its third-quarter financial report, Musk also shared a letter on Twitter , mocking Einhorn for the difficult situation suffered by bearish Tesla, and even gave the latter a box of shorts. Of course, this is not the first time the two have confronted each other. In August last year, Musk sent out shorts on Twitter, and the two also had a rather "polite" conversation on Twitter.
To be honest, it is quite cute for billionaires to argue with each other like this~
Tesla and Wall Street: Nine Years of Grudges and Revenge
In fact, at the beginning, the relationship between Wall Street and Tesla was not so extreme, and it was probably driven by interests.
On June 29, 2010, Tesla landed on Nasdaq at a price of US$17 per share, becoming the first automobile company to enter the US capital market after Ford Motor Company in 1956. At this time, let alone Tesla, the entire US automobile market is not optimistic, so Wall Street's attitude towards it is also mediocre.
In 2004, Musk spent 6.3 million US dollars to become Tesla's chairman and CEO. After four years of preparation, he finally launched his first product in 2008 - the super sports car Roadster. But at that time, Tesla happened to catch up with the financial crisis, and Tesla was forced to lay off employees and close R&D centers to overcome the difficulties. As a result, the supercar Roadster plan was put on hold. In Wall Street's view, this is a true proof of the failure of entrepreneurship.
But what Wall Street is difficult to understand is that Musk received a loan of $465 million from venture capital and the US Department of New Energy at that time, but did not use it to produce the Roadster that was already in production, but started his second venture and started developing a brand new electric sedan, Model S.
This car is scheduled to be delivered in June 2012, but at that time, the Tesla wallet was tightened and Wall Street questioned its production capacity. In short, everything is not favored.
So, in the years when Tesla first went public, in Wall Street's view, these were all immature and full of crises, and Musk was probably a lunatic.
Wall Street's first attitude towards Tesla has improved, and it also started with the Model S. In 2012, Musk achieved mass production of Model S through equity pledge and financing. Although the production capacity is still fast, it cannot be sold well. In 2014, Tesla became the "light of Silicon Valley" in Wall Street with its unexpected sales. In a year, the stock price rose 6 times. Then, Musk entered a four-year honeymoon period with Wall Street.
2018, the relationship reversed again. The initial cause was Wall Street's doubts about Tesla's personnel changes and production capacity, and Musk's attitude angered Wall Street. In August 2018, Musk said on Twitter, "We are considering acquiring Tesla stock at $420 per share." Although Musk's initial attitude was that stock price fluctuations had "significant interference" on the company, Wall Street's practice of setting performance targets every quarter is not necessarily suitable for Tesla. What the implications of
are all dissatisfaction with Wall Street's behavior.So even though Musk took back his remarks two weeks later, Wall Street's bigwigs still felt that their authority was questioned. This sentiment was sublimated when Musk was broadcasting online in public in early September last year.
The result is that Wall Street collapsed collectively, and Tesla's market value also shrank by 4 billion US dollars in one day.
loses 2 billion yuan. Will the "Green Lights" regret it?
Since then, no matter what Tesla does, Wall Street will have a group of bad analysts. Einhorn mentioned in the previous article is one of the group of analysts who are incompatible with Musk's horoscope, and of course the most representative one.
public information shows that Einhorn is the president and founder of Wall Street hedge fund "Green Light Capital", which is a value-oriented hedge fund combining long and short. Before shorting Tesla, his results were also very abundant, and he was even regarded as "the next Buffett" by the outside world.
1996, when "Greenlight Capital" was first established, it only managed $1 million in assets. In 2007, Einhorn achieved both fame and fortune by shorting Bear Stearns and Lehman. By the peak of 2014, his assets under management reached $15 billion. "Short selling" has become Einhorn's main value orientation. Just like the name of "Green Light Capital", if others are green, they will make money.
However, according to statistics from financial analysis companies, Greenlight Capital's short selling on Tesla this time was not successful.
In November this year, Musk posted a reply to Einhorn on Twitter, which shows the losses suffered by Greenlight Capital due to short selling.
"Considering the losses caused to you by Tesla's successful third quarter, especially your investment performance has been declining in the past few years, with the total asset management falling sharply from $15 billion to $5 billion, so it is understandable that you want to save face in front of investors."
regulatory documents also show that Greenlight Capital's loss in 2018 was as high as 34%. However, whether it is like Musk wrote in the letter, whether it is to save face, or to really look at Tesla's operating model from a development perspective, Einhorn's attitude towards bearishness has never changed.
Greenlight Capital's third-quarter letter to investors read, "Although Tesla has brought "significant losses" to Greenlight Capital and is one of the most failed bets, it will continue to maintain its short position against Tesla in the future."
In fact, it is not just Greenlight Capital, but Morgan Stanley 's expectations for Tesla's stock price are not high.
Today, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said in a research report that the target price of Tesla stock of $250 per share remains unchanged. This price fell 41.28% from the closing price of US$425.47 per share on December 24.
Jonas's attitude is that Tesla stock may continue to rise as the company achieves landmark results on these projects, but in the long run, Tesla is still an overvalued automaker in the market.
He has also repeatedly emphasized that Tesla is a car company rather than a high-growth technology company. This is also the main reason why Jonas is not optimistic about Tesla's long-term development.
written at the end
According to Jonas, as an automaker, Tesla's stock price cannot always maintain or even exceed the level of $420. The premise of this conclusion is that Tesla is as an automobile manufacturing company, not a technology company.
But in fact, Tesla has indeed done something that technology companies do, including in-depth research on automotive products in fields such as artificial intelligence, driverless driving and electric vehicle technology. It can be said that as both domestic American companies, Tesla's development model has many similarities with Apple.
Apple was also an unknown smartphone manufacturing company in its early years, and the key to its ultimate success is that it does not limit itself to mobile phone manufacturing, but connects a powerful interconnected ecosystem through mobile phone systems. Tesla is in a similar situation as Apple, which was misunderstood by Wall Street.
For Wall Street investors like Greenlight Capital, it is very difficult to change their inherent cognition or admit that they have failed to invest, but if they cannot change, the future may be worse.
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