In the last episode, we talked to you about the many instability facing the world. A British investigation report showed that due to the superposition of factors such as the new crown epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, 101 countries around the world may encounter civil unres

In the last episode, we talked to you about the many instability facing the world. A British investigation report showed that due to the superposition of factors such as the new crown epidemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war, 101 countries around the world may encounter civil unrest in the future, and many countries may encounter surrounding conflicts.

And even developed countries like Europe and the United States face so many uncertainties, life is very sad. Now some people are planning to say which of the developed countries will fall first, and some say it is the UK, because since Brexit, the UK's economy has been deteriorating.

Today, the inflation in the UK has reached double digits, the highest among developed countries. Even after the death of the Queen, the UK faces an unprecedented crisis of division. Scotland and Northern Ireland are both ready to move, so some people say that Britain may be kicked out of the ranks of developed countries first.

Of course, some people also say that Germany is the strongest country in mainland Europe today, the problem is that Germany's energy policies over the past 20 years have relied too much on Russia. Germany has taken the lead in closing a large number of its own nuclear power plants and thermal power plants. However, wind, water, and solar energy are so unstable, so Germany is actually kidnapped by Russian energy.

Now you have to reject Russia's energy, so what the German people have to face is a natural gas bill that has risen by more than 10 times. Therefore, many people are worried that after the energy supply is cut off by Russia, will the German economy fall down? But in fact, there is another developed country that is even more dangerous. It is our neighbor Japan. The so-called fire at the city gate has affected the fish. Who would have thought that the currency that depreciated the fastest in the world since the Russian-Ukraine War was actually the Japanese yen, which was previously considered the strongest safe-haven currency.

In the past six months, the yen has depreciated by more than one quarter against the US dollar, and today it has accounted for a 1 to 150 mark, which makes the per capita GDP 5 of Japan calculated in US dollars lower than South Korea and Taiwan. Moreover, what Japanese people have to face is not just cold numbers, not just a sharp decline in their per capita GDP, but their daily lives have been seriously affected by economic decline and currency depreciation.

, especially Japan's food problems. When the yen continued to fall, the British " Financial Times " released a research report two days ago. The topic was very terrifying. Can Japan still support itself in the future? You should know that Japan is a high-income country. Thirty years ago, Japan's per capita GDP once reached 1.5 times that of the United States. Even though Japan's economy has stagnated over the years, it is still the second largest developed country, and its per capita GDP is 30,000 to 40,000 US dollars. How could such a Japan not support itself? The title of

is a bit exaggerated, but this report from the Financial Times directly points to a weakness of the Japanese economy, that is, Japan's grain self-sufficiency rate is very low, what is the low state? At 38%, the Financial Times pointed out that Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is almost the lowest among developed countries.

Especially in many projects, such as wheat and soybean edible oil, Japan relies on imports for more than 80% and more than 90%. In other words, Japan’s poor agriculture cannot support the food, clothing and consumption of these more than 100 million people. Japan used to need a large amount of imports. Such an agricultural structure is very harmful to the Japanese economy today, so the Financial Times asked if Japan can support itself in the future?

To be honest, the issue of eating was definitely not a problem for Japan in the past. Although the country's self-sufficiency rate was only 38%, Japan can import a large amount of it. After all, Japan is a developed country, and relatively speaking, the yen is relatively strong. The yen is called a safe-haven currency. If there are any disturbances around the world, there are any wars and famines, a large amount of funds immediately rushed to Japan to avoid danger and pursue the yen. Therefore, although the Japanese economy has stagnated in the past 30 years, the lives of the Japanese people will not be affected.

We used to often use the stability of Japanese prices as an example. How much does a bowl of ramen on the streets of Tokyo cost 30 years ago? How much does a bowl of ramen cost today? How much does a cup of instant noodles cost in supermarkets cost 30 years ago? How much does a cup of instant noodles cost today? So although the average income of Japanese people has not increased in the past 30 years, the total amount of GDP in Japan has been around 5 trillion US dollars, Japan's prices are also very stable, so Japanese people are still very happy.

At that time, we often heard such news, saying that a Japanese milk factory had the same price for the past few decades. Once, for some reason, it wanted to increase the ex-factory price of milk by 5 yen per bottle, which was very small. As a result, everyone had to apologize to the Japanese people from top to bottom. The Japanese were also very accustomed to the superstability of this price. At that time, Japan did not have the problem of not being able to support itself.

However, the situation this year has changed drastically. The yen has depreciated by one quarter against the US dollar in just half a year, which makes Japanese importers have to spend a greater cost. Importing from abroad For countries selling agricultural products to Japan, the yen has depreciated. I sell things to use the US dollar to calculate. I cannot help you bear the risk of losing the exchange rate , so the cost has to be borne by Japanese importers and ordinary Japanese people.

At the beginning, many Japanese importers and Japanese terminal retailers said that we must maintain the stability of domestic prices. After all, prices have been like this in the past few decades, so they took the lead in bearing costs to reduce their profit margins and maintain the stability of domestic prices in Japan. However, as the yen depreciates faster and faster, these importers and terminal retailers can't stand it anymore. The 25% exchange rate is a loss, which is a profit loss, so they can only raise the price without any choice.

At the beginning, their price increase was carried out secretly, and it raised the price in a way that Japanese people could hardly feel. How did it rise? That is to change to large packaging and small packaging. For example, instant noodles are 150 grams per bag, but now I change them to 110 grams per bag. I can change them to 500 ml of milk in a bottle. I can now change them to 450 ml of milk. The packaging is reduced but the price remains unchanged, which makes the people feel that prices have not risen.

In the past two months, this change is useless, because the currency depreciation is too fast, so a large number of Japanese goods are rising prices. Relevant people pointed out that this price increase trend will spread in the next one or two months, and at least 6,000 to 10,000 kinds of goods sold in Japan will increase significantly, because Japan's grain self-sufficiency rate is so low, and a large amount of food is imported from foreign countries. Then when your domestic exchange rate depreciates rapidly, you can only increase the price.

Some days ago, someone said that the depreciation of the yen is a good thing. After the depreciation of the yen, if a large number of overseas tourists travel to Japan, you can take advantage of it. You can eat 20% off for electronic products at 30% off, which will attract more overseas tourists to travel to Japan. Didn’t Japan propose to establish a country in tourism in the past few years? But the problem is that the prices of these goods will not rise. The bread and beef you eat are all imported from the United States, and the electronic products are also imported from the United States. When importing, they pay US dollars. The exchange rate has risen. How could you maintain the original low price?

so it won't take long. After the price of Japan is adjusted, for a large number of overseas tourists, people have not found any cheaper, and they may even feel that the prices of various Japanese consumer goods denominated in Japanese yen are rising. Let’s talk about it this way. This round of rapid depreciation of the Japanese yen has only disadvantages but no benefits to the entire Japanese economy, and will even greatly reduce the living standards of Japanese people.

So let’s talk about the issue of agriculture. Why has my country been emphasizing the red line of 1.8 billion mu of arable land in the past few years? It is because as a country with a large population, food security is extremely important. Today, although my country also imports a large amount of food from foreign countries, such as soybeans, beef, and various fruits, seafood, we all import them.

Of course, we are an icing on the cake. After the economy is rising, we have more money to import better food to improve people's lives. We have always been self-sufficient in the issue of staple food. Remember, more than two years ago, the impact of the new crown epidemic has occurred in many places. At that time, the official in charge of grain in my country stood up and told everyone not to panic. The people of the whole country are willing to eat the grain in major grain stocks in my country, and they can’t finish it after two years.

Since our staple food is self-sufficient and has a large amount of storage, even if there are changes in grain prices and changes in non-staple food prices in China, we can open warehouses anytime and anywhere to put reserve grain reserve meat into the market to maintain the stability of prices. So you have seen it in the past two years. Although the world has encountered imported inflation from the United States, on the one hand, my country's CPI index has always maintained a low point. On the other hand, we have also ushered in a low point in pork in the past two years. There is a time when good pork cannot be sold for 10 yuan per pound.

To be honest, Japan is a country with very poor land resources, but over the years, it has really taken a unique path on agricultural issues. We know that Japanese agricultural products are actually great. Japanese people are very willing to increase their investment in the research and development of agricultural products, so Japan has the best rice in the world, Japan has the most expensive fruits in the world, and Japan has the best beef in the world.

When we mention Japanese agricultural products, many people will think that expensive is one of its characteristics. Beef is sold by grams, apples are sold by individuals, and watermelons are sold by slices. The territory itself is small and the area of ​​cultivated land is small. On the other hand, it pursues too much quality agriculture. Therefore, Japan's agricultural product output quality is great, but the quantity is too small, so its grain self-sufficiency rate can only reach 38%.

may have thought it didn't matter in the past. They are economically powerful countries and they are very wealthy. They can engage in high-quality agriculture in their own country while purchasing agricultural products from overseas to maintain the daily lives of the people. When Japan's economy is soaring and maintaining stability, this operation is fine, but when Japan encounters rapid depreciation of the exchange rate today, there may be problems.

Because the self-sufficiency rate of domestic agricultural products is too low, Japan can only be controlled by others. The more the exchange rate depreciates, the more money it has to spend to import, and the final cost has to be borne by the people of the country. The Japanese government actually cannot adjust the issue of food, and this is just an economic problem. To be honest, there is no war. If there is a little war, it is too easy to get stuck in Japan. As long as you block it, it will not be able to enter enough food and energy, the Japanese economy will collapse anytime and anywhere.

However, Japan's development of agriculture does have many adverse factors. We don't talk about the problem of land, just about the problem of people. The aging and low birth rate over the years have made more and more Japanese people unwilling to be farmers at all.

There is a data showing that the average age of all farmers in Japan is as high as 67 years old. Due to years of neglecting the country's agricultural investment, Japan not only has no land, but also has no people. Therefore, it is almost impossible for Japan to increase its food self-sufficiency rate. Therefore, the Financial Times issued such a question: How can Japan rely on to support itself in the future?