According to Taiwan's China Times Electronic News, in response to Tainan City Councilman Xie Longjie , the Kuomintang's 2020 candidate Han Kuo-yu will definitely win 900,000 votes. Senior media person Huang Weihan analyzed that Tsai's lead over South Korea is not that big, about 300,000 or 500,000 votes, about 3 to 5%. He even thought Han Kuo-yu might win.
Huang Weihan said on the show that his opinion is different from Xie Longjie. He believes that Han Kuo-yu may win, but he won't win so much. There may be problems with the poll, but it does not mean that the poll is inaccurate. The poll company will not make false statements, but the poll may be distorted, and it may be different from the final election results. Huang gave an example to illustrate that in the Taipei mayoral election last year, the Ke Wenzhe poll won a lot, but in the end, he only won more than 3,000 votes. There were also the Kaohsiung City , New Taipei City , Taichung City and other polls last year. Even if there is a win, he will win a little bit. The result is not the case. The Kuomintang won 290,000 votes in New Taipei City and Taichung won 200,000 votes, which is beyond the reach of the polls.
Huang Weihan pointed out that Han Kuo-yu's poll has been going downward, but it may be distorted. The votes are not like that. In 2018, the gap between the total votes between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party was 1.2 million votes, and Ko Wen-je's 580,000 votes is the key, not counted in the Democratic Progressive Party, nor in the Kuomintang. Yao Wenzhi's 230,000 votes are considered iron green, while Ke Wenzhe's 580,000 votes are light green and middle-aged voters. It may not be voted, or it may be voted, or voted for anyone from Han, Cai and Song, which will create variables.
Huang Weihan analyzed that the 1.2 million votes that the Kuomintang won the Democratic Progressive Party in 2018 were deducted, and then the "Hong Kong Incident", Han Kuo-yu's "stupid" and polls declined were deducted, but there were 580,000 votes from Ko Wen-je. No matter how small Han Kuo-yu's votes were, there were 5 million votes. No matter how strong Tsai Ing-wen was, it was only about 6 million. The two moved within 1 million votes, and the final victory or defeat was within 500,000 votes. If the poll distortion is very serious, then in the end, Han Kuo-yu will beat Tsai Ing-wen a little. But if the polls are very accurate and all the results are correct, Tsai Ing-wen will win more than 2 million votes. However, judging from the Tsai camp's response strategies, policy releases and attacks on Han Kuo-yu, it seems that the gap between the two sides is very small. Tsai Ing-wen is the leader, but the lead is not that big, about 300,000 or 500,000 votes, about 3 to 5%. As long as it is a fluctuation, it may be flipped back.
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