Introduction
National three-step implementation, and the period for agricultural machinery manufacturing, importing and selling non-road machinery must not be lower than that of National III was postponed to December 1, 2016.
As soon as this news was announced, the agricultural machinery industry was in a panic for a while. Some were uneasy, some were celebrating, some were applauding, some were complaining, some were filled with righteous indignation, and some were not afraid of big things when watching the fun. Which bits are these? We don’t need to explain, all the readers are welcome to take a look at the numbers themselves.
At this moment when all parties have their own opinions, we as an industry media must naturally be absent. We want to speak out, but we are also frightened. Because this incident involves too many relationships and interests and has too great impact for this industry, and our rash voice will inevitably lead to dissatisfaction from some relevant parties and even many aspects.
But even so, we must speak out, and from the perspective of being as objective and fair as possible, we will analyze for everyone. Who moved whose cheese was upgraded to the National III? What do governments, host companies, engine companies, users, those who abide by the rules and take risks? What roles did they play?
We have no intention of saying some nonsense that is always correct, we just hope to sort out the ins and outs of this matter, analyze the reasons for the actions of all parties, and provide some help for all relevant parties to propose feasible routes and take relatively lowest-cost actions.
article may have incorrect, inappropriate, and shallow points. If you can understand it, I am very grateful. If you cannot, criticism is welcome!
article | Yang Hongbo
After the postponement of the National III announcement, why do you still have a meeting?
On January 25, 2016, the author attended a symposium on the implementation of the National III upgrade of the agricultural machinery industry held by the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association. Wang Tao, deputy director of the Atmospheric Department of the Pollution Prevention and Control Department of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and Chen Zhi, president of the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, held talks with leaders of major engine companies and engine companies in the industry such as Yituo, Leiwo, Zhonglian, Wuzheng, Dier, Dongfeng, Quanchai, and Xichai.
host companies and engine companies have reflected their own situation, difficulties, and future measures and hopes; Wang Tao explained the ins and outs of the three-step implementation of the country, and called on and urged enterprises to comply with implementation and take proactive measures; Chen Zhi urged all enterprises to have a sense of crisis, fully reflect on themselves, and "abandon fantasies, respond actively, and take the initiative." To summarize this,
is the above content.
The Ministry of Environmental Protection announced the postponement of the National III on January 18, 2016.
Since the matter has been decided, why do you still hold this meeting? Does it make sense?
In our opinion, the reason why the Ministry of Environmental Protection and the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association held this meeting is mainly due to two points:
First, it is to collect the reactions of all parties to the postponement of the National III.
The second is to convey a message - you and the companies represented by you must strictly implement it!
Because essentially, the postponement of the National III is giving some host companies a green light.
Speaking of this, many people may be dissatisfied. Since April 1 is scheduled, why is it postponed to December 1? Is this a change of orders every day? What should I do if the host company that has strictly implemented and actively prepared before? What should engine companies do? The palm of the hand is meat, but the back of the hand is not meat?
To solve this doubt, I am afraid we must start with the following two problems:
1. Why is the time left for the second to the third country to be so cramped?
2. What is the fundamental reason for the upgrade of National II and National III incident?
In essence, this incident was caused by haze
If you want to talk about the first cause of the incident of the second and third country of the country, we can tell you clearly, two words - haze.
Beijing
In haze If you know how to start from the details and see the small details, you can draw this inference from the officials of the Ministry of Environmental Protection who participated in this meeting - Wang Tao is from the Atmospheric Department of the Ministry of Environmental Protection.
Speaking of this, you may ask, isn’t it just haze? As for such a big fight? Besides, does it have that much to do with our agricultural machinery? Under
, we have to nag a few words first and talk about haze for a long time.Because if you don’t explain this clearly, you can’t continue with the topic later.
smog incident originated from the first announcement of the PM2.5 index by the US Consulate, which has fermented since then and has become a topic of the whole nation. Before this, what was haze? The people don’t care, “Isn’t it just that the air is a bit muddy?”
The smog incident was so large and the wide impact range was once beyond imagination. Even in 2014, a government official issued a "military order" - to come and see him if he couldn't cure the smog. However, a year has passed, and the official can only smile and say that this is a joke.
Admittedly, you can be angry and make all kinds of criticisms and accusations about it, but can you ignore the fact that haze is not that easy to cure.
1952's London smog incident caused 4,000 deaths in two weeks (there are also data that the total number of deaths in this incident was as high as 10,000), which made us extremely frightened. However, afterwards, some people analyzed that the haze in China is different from the haze in London. The haze in that fatal event was mainly sulfur dioxide, which is highly toxic and has a fast death rate. And China's haze is more like a chronic poison.
China's haze, pollutants are mainly PM2.5. This is an object particle with a diameter of less than or equal to 2.5 microns, which is extremely harmful. First of all, this kind of thing can be directly breathed into our lungs. Secondly, it contains a variety of heavy metals such as lead, manganese, cadmium, antimony, strontium, arsenic, nickel, and harmful substances such as sulfates, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. Most of this kind of thing cannot be found when it enters the body, and studies have shown that these substances have direct or indirect connections with cancer.
In short, it is a chronic poison.
Where does the haze come from?
In 2015, among the nine major cities announced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, the primary source of pollution in Beijing, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is motor vehicles, Shijiazhuang and Nanjing are coal-fired, and Tianjin, Shanghai and Ningbo are dust, flow sources, and industrial production respectively.
Source of haze in Beijing
Studies have shown that the main sources of haze are coal, fuel oil, biomass combustion (such as firewood, straw), industrial production, breeding, fertilizer use and dust, 60% of which come from the combustion of chemical energy (coal and fuel oil), and almost all sources are related to human production and life.
The source of haze in Wuhan City surveyed by the media can be seen. The main sources of haze are fuel and coal!
One of the key points of fuel is road and non-road vehicles.
So, what proportion can agricultural machinery pollution account for?
In 2015, my country's motor vehicles were owned 279 million units. Where is the agricultural machinery? The data we found was that in 2014, the number of tractors in my country reached 22.977 million, and the number of combined harvesters reached 1.584 million. Of course, other agricultural machinery and power equipment must be added. For the sake of calculation, we assume that the difference between the number of agricultural machinery and the number of motor vehicles is 10 times.
Agricultural machinery is a PM2.5 emission major
. What are the emission standards of motor vehicles? National IV. In 2016, the whole country will be upgraded to National V. And what about agricultural machinery? National II.
So, what is the difference in emissions between National IV and National II?
We know that the national emission standards are implemented in accordance with the European standards. If we only look at the inhalable particulate matter, the emissions (diesel cars) have doubled from Euro 2 to Euro 3, and from Euro 3 to Euro 4, and from Euro 3 to Euro 4, they have doubled. Data also show that every technological upgrade of diesel engine emissions has reduced particulate emissions by more than 80%. (We will update the data here after further verification, and experts are welcome to correct it.)
European phased emission standards table
So, in this way, the emissions of agricultural machinery using the National II standard are about 4 times that of motor vehicles in the National IV standard. (This algorithm is not accurate, but it helps everyone to intuitively see the emission gap.)
Therefore, the emission of agricultural machinery pollutants is basically equivalent to about half of the emissions of motor vehicles. The number
is probably much higher than most people think!
has been talking for so long, and there is only one conclusion. In order to survive and be healthy, haze must be cured! Emission standards must be improved!
This is a reform that the environment forces the industry.
extension is the result of sufficient research
In October 2015, the Ministry of Environmental Protection held a communication meeting with the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, the China Internal Combustion Engine Association and some agricultural machinery enterprises on the issue of upgrading the country 2 and upgrading the country 3 to understand the actual problems. After that, the Ministry of Environmental Protection conducted a series of research on this. After the
investigation, the Ministry of Environmental Protection discovered three problems:
First, agricultural machinery sales are indeed very seasonal. For example, tillage and finishing equipment is mainly concentrated in the four months before and after the Spring Festival; corn machinery is mainly in the few months after the summer harvest. Apart from these points in time, it is basically unlikely that you can handle inventory.
Second, some OEMs are indeed relatively large inventories. After the investigation, it was found that the inventory of domestic second-in-one complete machine products in the market is basically around 300,000 to 350,000 sets, and the data reported by the host company to the Ministry of Environmental Protection is basically the same.
Third, most companies reported that they did not give enough time to upgrade to the National Third National Committee. We know that engine upgrades do not simply install a National III engine in the original engine. It needs to do a lot of reliability tests, including durability tests in the workshop, and field tests. These tests have a certain number of hours as standard. If the test is not completed, the chance of accidents in batches of many products will be greatly increased. Many host companies reported that by April 1, 2016, they had no sufficient time to complete field tests, and it would be difficult to complete workshop tests. What does it mean if
fails to complete the experiment? First, if the product quality does not meet the standards, there may be problems. If there is a problem, it will affect the reputation and stir up the market; second, if the test cannot be completed, the appraisal cannot be passed, and if it cannot be passed, the appraisal cannot be entered into the subsidy catalog. For many companies, this may mean that the product cannot be sold at all. What is the most important thing for enterprises? It is cash flow.
No matter how high a company has a high market value, it may go bankrupt immediately if its cash flow is cut off. At the
symposium, a company asked, if a company with 100,000 products in stock has not sold a car for a year (National 2 is not allowed to sell, and National 3 cannot complete the test), then what does it mean to him? It seems that there is no need to say more.
In addition, this may also mean that if some unconventional measures are not taken and many host companies will not be able to operate normally. So, is this another form of "bad money drives out good money"?
Therefore, adopting the delay method is certainly unfair to companies with good sales, low inventory and discipline, but from the perspective of the entire market, it is actually a lower-cost operation method.
liters national third? Engine companies have little technical pressure
This magazine interviewed several engine companies, and combined with the symposium on the implementation of the National III upgrade of the agricultural machinery industry, after the speeches of several bigwigs such as Quanchai, Xichai, and Leiwo Power found that technically speaking, upgrading to the National III does not have much pressure on engine companies, and the pressure lies in matching with the main engine.
"As early as 2008 and 2009, engine companies had already experienced the test of National II to National III, and it was mainly road vehicles. That time, many engine companies had not stepped over and were dead." A person working for a well-known host company said: "The engine companies on the market now have basically mastered the technology of National V or even National VI. For some large engine companies, upgrading to National III is more advantageous."
National II upgraded National III, from a technical model, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as a revolution in engine technology. Around 2009, Guo Er and Guo III also caused an uproar in the internal combustion engine industry, and the final implementation period was also postponed, and many companies fell in this battle of life and death. This time, the crisis faced by the engine factory does not seem to be that strong.
is difficult for engine manufacturers, and it is cost control, and there is still time to go.
First of all, the engine must be adapted to the size and structure of the agricultural machinery, and the power output must be adjusted according to the engine. There must be several more ports than the car, and it also involves a series of issues such as suspension and load bearing.
Li Fangcheng, deputy general manager of Levo Power, said that many engine companies have non-road engine products of the European 3 standard (Europe 3 is equivalent to National 3), but the European 3 standard products cannot be directly used on National 3. The workload of this conversion is still very large, mainly lies in the difference in cost control requirements and oil products. Similarly, products used on road vehicles cannot be used directly. Agricultural machinery has a very different engine power and torque requirements from road machinery, and tests such as durability and reliability must be re-processed.
In the short term, whoever has stronger ability to match agricultural machinery products will gain the upper hand in this battle between the second and third country. In this way, companies such as Xichai, Quanchai, and Yuchai that have been working in the agricultural machinery field for a long time will have comparative advantages.
For engine companies, this is a question of who can seize the opportunity better, and for host companies, it may be a matter of life and death.
Upgrading the National Third National III is a matter of time, but the timing is very critical
If you use one word to describe the host company during the upgrade process, it may be "suffering".
is facing many concerns about a hosting company.
, such as inventory, test and identification, we have already mentioned above.
In addition, they have to worry about the following issues: the production capacity of the
engine factory. At the symposium on the implementation of the National III upgrade in the agricultural machinery industry, the boss of the main engine factory directly asked the boss of the engine factory, if I want a certain number of National III engines, can you give it or not? The supply capacity of the engine factory directly affects the production capacity of the OEM factory. Quality of
batch product.
after-sales service. Due to the short time, it seems inevitable that the product may fail in single products or batches during the National III switch. This tests the company's after-sales service capabilities. First, whether the dealer will repair it themselves, and second, whether the after-sales capabilities of the engine factory can keep up. Pan Zhongde, general manager of Anhui Quanchai, said that Quanchai has trained more than 500 service stations nationwide and has specially prepared 500 sets of fault diagnosis equipment, which will be available one after another by the end of January 2016. This is good news for us. But is this preparation enough? Do other engine companies pay enough attention and be fully prepared?
Next, there are two more questions, which are particularly critical. Say the important things about
three times!
subsidy! subsidy! Or subsidy!
National II upgraded to National III. Some companies actively "lobbying" to let relevant departments understand the situation and change the final time of policy implementation; some companies secretly prepared and took the risk to store a batch of "inventory" from National II, preparing to welcome the "day of amnesty", while some companies have less inventory pressure and are actively preparing to deal with upgrades and be "good kids".
However, if you think about it carefully, there may be no obvious boundary between these three companies.
The real situation is probably - among the good children, some have stockpiled some "inventory" of the National II; enterprises that are secretly prepared are also constantly inquiring about policy trends; enterprises that are actively promoting postponement are actually conducting relevant experiments on the National III upgrade. It can even be said that enterprises have more or less both of the above three characteristics.
We cannot generalize the right or wrong of a company, because in the market environment, you cannot easily say that a company's decisions must be wrong, that is irresponsible.
Everything about it is because of that point.
There are probably two more important things for enterprises.
is the first to bear the impact of subsidies.
According to the company, although the final time for the upgrade of the National III is set on December 1, 2016, the agricultural machinery subsidy for the products of the National III has not yet been released. The appraisal outline has not been made yet, and the reply given by the relevant departments is also "not accepted for the time being". We must wait until after the Spring Festival to "have news." The troubles caused to enterprises by
are probably much greater than all other factors.
Some companies said that overall, agricultural machinery subsidies may account for more than 25% of the sales of agricultural machinery products. Whether you can get subsidies, or whether you have the qualifications to subsidy, may directly affect farmers' decisions on purchasing machines, and also directly affect a company's annual sales.
Therefore, to promote the smooth progress of the National III upgrade, subsidies will be one of the most important factors: First, subsidies should be accepted on time and on time; second, whether relatively high-value subsidies should be considered for the National III products to encourage the market to complete the upgrade as soon as possible and enhance the participation and enthusiasm of enterprises.
Another factor is the quality of the oil.
Mr. Xuan Xiaoming from the R&D Department of FAW Xichai Wuxi Diesel Engine Factory said that the quality of oil products has a great impact on the reliability of the National III diesel engine. First, there are problems with poor quality and high quality of oil products in informal gas stations. Second, many farmers use diesel rather than engine oil to lubricate the engine. After upgrading to National III, it is likely to bring disastrous consequences.
Therefore, it is urgent to eliminate backward production capacity of oil products and improve oil emission standards. The specific approach is to force upgrade the relevant regulations and standards for low-emission fuel consumption.
eliminates backward production capacity, which means that these backward production capacity will either be upgraded or die. Otherwise, if the engine is upgraded to the National III, the quality of oil products will not be improved, which is also unfair to engine companies.
beneficiary? This is definitely not a zero-sum game
at the beginning of the article, saying that the second country goes to the third country, this is a bull game.
Let’s first look at what game theory is.
is not a big deal about theory.
has become the saying, game theory means that many parties sit down and quarrel, and the final result is to sacrifice part of their interests and reach an agreement. Although the interests of each party are not 100% satisfied, each party actually reached an agreement on the premise of the lowest cost.
Therefore, in essence, the escalation of the National Two and the National Three incident is a multi-party game forced by environmental pollution, and from the results of the game, it is successful. Therefore, we look at this incident in a relatively positive way.
What is zero-sum game? Simply put, the deal is not completed, the negotiation cannot be reached, and it is broken up. A situation where
is opposite to game is called prisoner's dilemma, also known as behind-the-scenes operation, which means no communication, and then everyone starts with the greatest self-interest. The result of this approach is that everyone's interests suffer the greatest loss.
Judging from the entire process of the upgrade of the National II incident, the reason why we believe that it has been a successful game so far is that it has an agreement that must be reached, namely, to control air pollution.
Air pollution must be cured, otherwise why do we develop?
And in this game, someone will definitely sacrifice, and the OEM, engine factory, dealer, and users will or have made corresponding sacrifices. In the next process, how to minimize costs requires the collective wisdom of the ruling party, regulatory departments, and enterprises, which involves the upgrading of relevant laws and regulations and standards, timely cooperation of policies, active actions of relevant departments, and positive changes of participating entities such as enterprises.
reform is like cutting off your arm. If you step over, you will be reborn. If you are self-consistent and conservative, you will just die just like death.
In essence, no matter whether the National III is April 1 or December 1, this day will come after all. The only criterion for testing the final results should be whether the company has completed the upgrade, whether the industry has overcome difficulties, and whether the interests of farmers and users have been protected to the maximum extent.
After all, the ones that carry the forward of this industry are thousands of end users.
号 ∣ Gathering quality agricultural machinery people
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