Gold prices fell more than 1% on Friday (October 14), marking their worst week since mid-August. Draged by the strengthening of the US dollar and the market's concerns that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates significantly to curb inflation, the US market late trading, spot gold closed at $1,643.66/ounce, a sharp drop of $22.43 or 1.35%, reaching a high of $1,671.66/ounce and a low of $1,639.5/ounce. Spot gold fell by $50.95 or 3.01% this week. The main reason for the challenge to gold prices is that higher than expected inflation forces the market to reprice the Fed's expectations of a massive rate hike. This has brought an additional boost to the dollar. The short-term outlook for gold remains bleak, with analysts generally bearish on gold as gold prices fall below the $1,650 mark.
This Thursday, the CPI data for the United States in September was released. Although the annual rate of the announced value cooled slightly from the previous value, it was still lower than expected. The core CPI continued to heat up, higher than the expected 6.5%, reaching a historical high of 6.6%. Such data undoubtedly increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November, and the upper limit of interest rate hikes has also been raised. After the data was released, gold fell by more than 40 US dollars in the short term, and then a rapid rebound occurred in 1742. The main reason for the rebound was that the ECB would raise interest rates by 75 basis points in the next interest rate resolution, suppressing the rise of the US dollar and at the same time promoting the rebound of gold. It should be noted that the ECB's interest rate hike this time was earlier than the Fed, on the 27th of this month, and the Fed's interest rate hike time was at the beginning of next month. So in the near future, everyone needs to pay attention to the shadow of the expected hike of the ECB, which will bring a certain suppression to the US dollar and bring corresponding support to gold.
Although the radical interest rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve and global central banks still makes gold bulls worried, and the stock market rebounded sharply to suppress the safe-haven buying demand of gold. At the same time, the British government may reverse the news of tax cuts in the future, helping the pound rise sharply, and thus causing the US dollar to fall, providing opportunities for gold prices to rebound; in addition, the dollar index ushered in profit settlement after rising, and the US dollar faced the risk of peaking and further pullback in the short term, which is expected to provide certain support for gold. The short-term trend of gold prices is more affected by the US dollar trend. If the US dollar index further pulls back, it is expected to provide momentum for the rebound of gold prices.
Gold technical analysis: At present, the regional support of 1640-35 below is basically proven. In the short term, gold is unlikely to fall sharply and adjust, but it is unlikely to have a rebound and reversal of intensity. After all, there is still a major event to decide that the Federal Reserve interest rate will come in the later period, and the gold's upward momentum may be restrained by the expectations of this event at any time. Therefore, gold may fluctuate first or rebound slightly in the short term. The main action is to digest and consolidate the current market. Therefore, the downward trend of gold will not change. However, in the short term, due to the temporary adjustment or rebound of markets such as the US dollar index and the US stock market, it may bring certain reverse forces to the market. This strengthens the short-term fluctuation attributes of the market. However, the gold price suffered three blows around US$1,680. It is basically difficult for the gold price to continue to break through above US$1,685, but the previous low of US$1,615 below has not yet reached it. It fell sharply to around US$1,640 yesterday, which may be an attempt by the bears. The future market is still expected to continue to fall with the cooperation of the US dollar index.
Gold fluctuates and washes this week, but the closing is still bearish, with a strong weekly line. There is still a decline next week, with weekly resistance around 1662 and strong resistance at 1695, both short positions. The support below is 1641. If effectively falls below , it is estimated that it will go around 1628 or the previous low of 1614. The daily line closed negative on Friday, and it also tended to fall first on Monday, and the resistance of 1663 can be short. However, the resistance of the hourly line is around 1652, so you can get empty first when you touch it. If the market weakens, it is not ruled out that it will open near 1648, and if it is extremely weak, it may also be around 1645. However, if 1641 cannot effectively fall below the limit, it is not recommended to be too radical and short. The target below first looks at the break of 1640 and see around 1630-1622, and then have another wave of backhand. If the later market falls below 1614, there is still at least $10 below, but it is necessary to prevent the decline from continuing.Overall, it is recommended that gold short-term operation ideas be based on rebound short selling, and pullback long selling as supplementary. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 1658-1660 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the 1640-1638 line of support.
Technical Analysis of Crude Oil:
Crude Oil fell and rebounded yesterday and strongly recovered the lost ground, first suppressed and then rose, and the daily line turned positive for the first time after three consecutive negative lines. It also recovered the lost ground during the day and retreated to 85.50 at the lowest point. It rebounded again at the end of the trading day to 89.60. With the daily closing higher, today's weekly line is likely to be a way to close the oscillation, and it is not very sustainable. The 4-hour downward rebound was pulled up, and from the current perspective of the structure, it is still confirming whether it is a retracement correction or a reversal downward in the upward trend. Judging from the retracement space at the beginning of the week, and yesterday there was a certain recovery force, which prevented the short-term from closing at a low level. At least today's opened and it is not weak, and the strength to continue the decline is limited. The short-term oscillation first, and then the medium-term re-select direction. The K-line pattern rebounds. Attached, the MACD indicator starts near the 0 axis. The 1-hour chart has a wave of continuous positive stations on the upper track of the downward channel, breaking the weak downward channel. In the short term, you may also go to oscillate and touch highs, and operate the final work of last week's line and treat it with a volatile idea. To sum up, it is recommended that the crude oil operation idea be based on rebounding at high altitudes and retracement at low longs as supplements. The short-term focus on the upper short-term focus on the 87.3-87.8 line resistance, and the short-term focus on the 84.0-83.5 line support.
The two most important points in investing: one is to know how to analyze the market; the other is to know how to control risks. As an investor, you must have a good attitude and correct investment concepts. Positive people see an opportunity in every distress, while negative people see a certain anxiety in every opportunity. Faced with violent fluctuations in the market, what we need is to wait for opportunities and hit it with one blow, rather than losing ourselves in frequent trading!
text/Jin Jiu On Jin
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