After the release of US CPI data in September, the US Treasury market "reacts violently".
U.S. Treasury yields rose to varying degrees. Among them, the yield on the 2-year treasury bond, which is more sensitive to interest rate hikes, rose sharply, once rising to 4.535%. The yield on the US 3-year Treasury bonds and the US 5-year yield both rose by more than 20 basis points. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4%, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond was inverted by nearly 50 basis points.
Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the U.S. CPI increased by 8.2% year-on-year in September, slightly higher than market expectations. Among them, it is worth noting that the core CPI of the United States (excluding energy and food) rose 6.6% year-on-year in September, higher than 6.3% in August, which is also the largest increase since August 1982. The owners’ equivalent rental index also rose 0.8% in September, the index’s biggest monthly increase since June 1990.
After the United States released its September inflation data, CME FedWatch tool showed that the current market expects that the probability of FOMC raising interest rates by 75 basis points in November is 99.8%. It can be seen that the market has fully digested the decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 75 basis points again at the next interest rate meeting.
The Federal Reserve is actively raising interest rates to slow price increases. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy meeting, just released on Wednesday, show that Fed officials expressed concern about the continued existence of high inflation. Participants believed that in light of the broad and unacceptable high levels of inflation, higher-than-expected inflation news and upward risks of inflation outlook, the intention to turn to a restrictive policy stance in the short term is in line with risk management considerations.
However, some Fed officials have also realized that too fast rate hikes will also bring risks to the global economy. Several participants pointed out that it is important to adjust the pace of further tightening of policies to mitigate the risks of significant adverse impacts on the economic outlook in the current highly uncertain global economic and financial environment.
In addition, it is worth noting that the former representative of the Federal Reserve's "dove" official, who has the right to vote next year for the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Committee, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkari (Neel Kashkari) said on Wednesday, "Because we have not seen a lot of evidence that potential inflation is slowing, there is still a long way to go before policy shifts."