This week, it’s another super week.
The so-called super means that it is a big deal, because the US dollar will announce a rate hike this week.
Before that, US inflation had reached a high of 40 years, 9.1%, which triggered people's expectations of a US dollar rate hike. At least, Canada raised interest rates by 100 points in advance.
But this round of mainstream market views:
USD or raise interest rates by 75 points.
My personal opinion is also 75 points, and the subsequent four interest rate meetings:
- 9-21 Interest rate meeting: 50 points
1 hike rate slowly converged. Market investors even believed that after the increase this year, the United States will start to cut interest rates from to June next year. By 2024, the Federal Reserve will drop from 3.5% interest rate to 2.5%
. This is not unfair.
In July 2019, the US dollar cut interest rates by 25 points, and half a year ago in December 2018, the US dollar raised interest rates by 25 points. This 180-degree policy change is also something the Federal Reserve often does in the middle of the night.
Now oil prices are falling, oil prices fall after copper prices fall, and copper prices fall after grain fall, which is indeed creating conditions for the Federal Reserve.
Will the United States change from hikes to rate cuts next year? This topic is a bit big. I ask Biden and Powell, but they don’t know.
However, the United States will not raise interest rates too sharply, 75 points may be the largest.
Because: The United States wants to make a fuss around the world
After this round of epidemic, the economic recovery is still not good. Recently, data has been in a hurry, like last Friday's PMI Purchasing Manager Index , two of which, the service industry and the comprehensive index, both fell below 50, that is, the economy is at:
shrinking
Some people say: The US economic data is poor, so the Fed will slow down the rate hike, which is only half right.
I printed too much money during the epidemic in the United States, and the result was not good. The PMI data mentioned above hit a new low in two years, housing demand fell because loan interest rates were twice as high as last year, consumer confidence collapsed, because oil prices rose, inflation exceeded 9%...
In this case, what should the economy do if it wants to overcome the disaster?
Global wool!
Increase the attractiveness of US dollar assets by USD and increasing the value of , and global funds flow back to the United States to replenish blood.
Let me give you an example. Now the interest rate of the yen is 0. The interest rate of the US dollar rose above 3% at the end of the year, which means that you can earn 3% in more than a year;
US dollar index rose 11.25% this year. In other words, take the US dollar, lying at home, doing nothing, and earn 11% in seven months
Add up two, wrench finger: is weird, make 14% more at once
This does not require effort, you just need to exchange the yen for US dollars!
This is extremely attractive to the large international funds that must be corrected by a small amount.
Similarly, holders of the euro, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar will have this idea. Vietnamese dong , Indian rupee, and holders of Jilint, Malaysia will also exchange them for US dollars...
This is what I said before, global funds are pouring into the United States...
Through the US dollar's interest rate hike and appreciation, the United States harvests global funds.If this money enters the United States smoothly, it can help the United States recover its economy, boost the capital market, and raise its stock price...
"One general succeeds and ten thousand bones are thriving"
When the United States stands again, the economy of other countries is facing difficulties. In other words, the United States has completed its full blood resurrection through global blood transfusions, but other countries, even some countries with poor physical fitness, such as Turkey and Sri Lanka , are facing the dilemma of blood loss.
Europe also had to raise interest rates by 50 basis points two days ago. The outflow of funds is really serious. In addition, the depreciation of the euro has led to more serious import inflation in Europe, but the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points on Thursday. Will Europe still follow?
This is the big chess game in the United States: anyway, the fellow Taoists will not die. I will roll my brother first and then talk about
Global harvest and recovery of the United States. In the past history, the background of several rounds of US dollar interest rate hikes has similar clues
However, the chess game is always hidden and dangerous. What is the risk of
?
During earthquakes, people always seek solid refuges, but the premise is that the house as a refuge cannot catch a fire. If the house itself is dangerous, people will interrupt their pace towards the house.
The United States is well aware of the problem.
funds need to enter the United States, and it is okay for the United States to be in advance.
If the US economy falls sharply and the stock market shows signs of collapse, funds may be suspended from pouring into the United States.
At that time, the United States' global harvesting plan will be ruined.
If the US dollar rate hikes too much and the US economy falls out of control, then the US economic tank itself catches fire, and funds will stop the global influx into the United States, and may even flee from the United States. This is a self-harm that the Federal Reserve will never do.
So, this round of US dollar interest rate hike will not stage the history of Volker back then, and the rate hike will be greatly increased to 21.36%
Powell must ensure that the US economy will not collapse or have huge cracks due to interest rate hikes.
If the US dollar rate hike slows down, what impact does this have on us?
After the epidemic, the US dollar cut interest rates to zero, and the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate was lowered. At that time, China's 10-year Treasury bond interest rate was 250 points more than the US's highest.
But with the US dollar hike this year, China and the United States are now basically equal in the 10-year Treasury bond interest rates:
But as the US dollar continues to raise interest rates, the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate will be higher than China, which is not a good thing for the domestic capital market, and means that a huge interest rate spread will be generated, and some hot money may flow out.
If the United States slows down its interest rate hikes and even starts to cut interest rates next year, this will also be a good thing for China's capital market.
From the A-share market , the impact of external funds (northward funds) on A-share is still relatively huge, so if the US dollar rate hike slows down, or changes from interest rate hike to interest rate cuts, it will be beneficial to the Chinese stock market.
The Chinese stock market has always carried the hope of Chinese stock investors. We hope for its success just like we are in national football team , but we often feel unsatisfied.
U.S. stocks fell, Big A followed the decline, the United States rose, but we still fell, which means Big A has a self-awareness. It is rare that the US stock market will fall, and we will rise. The confidence index of investors is full of money, celebrating on Independence Day, but this joy is often short-lived.
I really hope that our A-shares can have a ten-year bull market like the US stock market.
The US stock market and China's real estate, in the context of the continued interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve, are comparing who is strong, who can hold on and who can laugh to the end.
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