Tan Yaling China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute Independent Economist
The current market expects Feder the fifth regular meeting this year, mainly because the latest U.S. inflation in June has reached 9.1% support. The market expects that the probability of hiking interest rate in the early morning of July 28 of the Federal Reserve rate hike is relatively certain, and it is expected that the US dollar benchmark interest rate will reach 2.25-2.50% and be close to the neutral range is clearly visible. However, the market also has speculation and expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by and 4,100 points. Perhaps the US dollar benchmark interest rate will reach the level of 2.50-2.75%. At present, the trend of the dollar index will be the core reference indicator for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The main reason is that the appreciation of the US dollar is not the original intention of the US policy, but also one of the methods of appreciation of the US dollar. The purpose of the future is to stimulate the possible power and technical potential of the backhand technology to exert its depreciation, rather than the pursuit of the appreciation of the US dollar. The depreciation of the US dollar is the principle of the national strategic purpose and policy intention of the US policy.
First of all, the US economy supports the ultimate goal of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The basis and background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike of 75-100 points lies in the support of the US economy. On the one hand, US inflation data shows that the conditions for the Fed's interest rate hike are the basic parameters of policy choices, especially the strong support for 100-point interest rate hike is an important perspective for the policy basis. After all, US inflation is not the result of follow-up markets. On the contrary, long-term strategic purpose and technical force actions are the planning reality of US inflation. On the other hand, the strong retail data in the United States, and the stable consumer confidence in the United States is the confidence of the Federal Reserve's actions. This will not only not have a negative effect on the Fed's interest rate hike rhythm, but on the contrary, the stock backlog of goods is an important combination of strategies and preparation measures for the current consumption rhythm and expected prospects. In addition, the stability of the United States' employment is highly secure, which indicates that the stability of the United States' income will come from the high return rate of the stock market, indicating that the pace and cycle of corporate income growth have not changed. The reason for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is in line with national conditions and facts is the key and focus of the authenticity of the US economy. The basis and coordination factor of the Federal Reserve's 100-point interest rate hike is the premise and background of the US dollar's monetary policy. The current confusing or incomprehensible focus is: whether the US economic growth in the first quarter is real, and the virtual speculation method of negative value is the focus of affecting and interfering with the Federal Reserve's 100-point interest rate hike. There is debate over the second quarter economic expectations of the US market next week. The future release is uncertain between negative values and weak growth. The degree of consistency between the Fed's interest rate resolution and the release time of this data may be the clever combination of the Fed's 100-point interest rate hike. There is a high probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 100 points. The US dollar market and the variables in the economic situation are the key to the Fed's 100 points rate hike.
followed by US stocks and peripheral central bank forward-looking is cater to rate hikes. The current upward trend of the US stock market is relatively clear, among which the Dow Jones Industrial Average has jumped to 31,000 points, Nasdaq has risen to 11,000 points, and S&P has risen to 3,800 points are all coordinated indicators for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. The layout of the U.S. stock market is expected to raise interest rates by 100 points in the early stage of the US stock market. It is currently in the financial report release cycle of US listed companies, and corporate profit expectations and reality support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike are guaranteed parameters for the macro trend of the US economy. The internal pace of US stocks is an escort indicator for the Fed's interest rate hike environment and confidence. The US economic foundation, the prosperous bull market in the stock market, and the competitive advantages of enterprises all have the support of 100 points in interest rate hikes. The unexpected rate hike of 100 points by the Bank of Canada, a close American neighbor overseas, is another angle for the Federal Reserve to observe. The Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 100 points to 2.50%, which is 75 basis points higher than the market's expectations for interest rate hikes. Among them, the Canadian inflation indicator is only limited to between 3.9-5.4%. It is expected that Canadian inflation will gradually fall in the future. The purpose of the Bank of Canada's quantitative austerity policy is worth paying attention to the caterpancy, demonstration of new or experimental correspondence to the United States. At present, Canada's inflation is not only because it adopts such extreme interest rate hikes, but also the regional linkages of Canada are far away from the Russian-Ukrainian incident, but its close proximity to the United States is the focus or intention of the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes.Canada's economic growth this year is 3.5% or higher than the US level. The degree of relationship between the US, Canada and Mexico and the United States and Canada is that the Bank of Canada's move may have forward-looking significance and cooperation in cooperating with the Federal Reserve's move. The catering nature of the Bank of Canada's move has alliance cooperation intentions and signs.
The last stumbling block to the Fed's interest rate hike is the appreciation node of the US dollar. The biggest resistance to the Fed's 100-point interest rate hike is the restraint of the US dollar's appreciation. As the Fed's regular meeting next week approaches, the depreciation of the US dollar's opening this week has dropped from 109 points to 107 points. The depreciation of the US dollar is urgently needed. It will be an important strategic and technical focus before the Fed's interest rate hike. The US dollar is the most experienced and experienced currency, and the circulation of currency against economic principles is the importance of the national policy of depreciating the US dollar. Especially at the moment, the international boycott of the US dollar has become more extreme. The appreciation of the US dollar seems to have shown the power and prestige of the US dollar. The market ability of the US dollar to hedge has verified that the status and influence of the US dollar cannot be converted or replaced. At the same time, the market has also increased the attention of US economic pressure and corporate competition, which is the core reference for the current urgent depreciation of the US dollar. After all, the depreciation of the US dollar is the basic national policy of the US dollar and an important condition for the current US economy and Federal Reserve policies. The time and pace of the appreciation of the US dollar in the early stage is a prelude or defensive method, and the time or opportunity of the Fed's regular meeting is a necessary time for the US dollar to depreciate. The path and method of the US dollar depreciation have the characteristics of planning or targeting the target that the market deserves attention, and it is also the key to the US dollar trend this week. This will determine whether the Fed's interest rate hike is feasible.
is expected to face major challenges in the current depreciation of the US dollar. In comparison with the environment, policies and expectations, the appreciation of the US dollar is greater than the depreciation based on the possibility of the yuan being greater than the depreciation. What the market can expect is that the previous depreciation of other basket currencies exceeds expectations or self-depreciation needs to be urgently repaired for the market or the US dollar opportunity. Among them, the pound drives the rebound of the euro and the rise of the neutral currency will be the direction of the exchange rate combination, and it also includes the auxiliary and coordination effect of marginal factors such as oil rebound and gold rise. It is expected that the depreciation of the US dollar will directly point to around 103-106 points. It is expected that the overestimation of the US dollar by 18% as stated by Goldman Sachs will be one of the parameters of the depreciation of the US dollar in the third quarter, and the depreciation of the US dollar will take advantage of the issue to play a hype speculation. Currently, the US dollar exchange rate is mainly coordinated with the US dollar interest rate, and the US dollar technology will focus on the depreciation of the US dollar.
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