Federal as scheduled Risk . In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike, consistent with market expectations, raising the federal funds rate range to 3% to 3.25%, the highest level since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.
This rate hike once again demonstrates the Federal Reserve's determination to fight inflation. Can the anti-inflation target be achieved smoothly? Will there be negative consequences? Will the dollar continue to be strong and what impact will the global economies have? A big V in Yicai, authoritative interpretation.
Powell reviewed his historical experience and said that he would insist on hike interest rates until the anti-inflation target is achieved, and would not initiate interest rate cuts too early
Zhao Wei Guojin Securities Chief economist
Regarding the extent of interest rate hikes in the two meetings in November and December, although Powell still stated that he would not give clear guidance on interest rate hikes as in the past. The specific extent depends on data performance, it was mentioned that "the interest rate will be raised by 100-125bp this year." Although Powell said that "as policy stance further tightens, the Fed may slow down interest rate hikes at some point in the future", it also reiterated historical experience that "the rate hike must be maintained until the goal is completed."
It is possible to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in November
Jiang Yifan Chief market analyst of Guotai Junan Research Institute
September hike rate 75 basis points in line with expectations, but the latest dot chart shows that there is still room for 125 basis points for the two interest rate hikes at the end of this year. This may mean that interest rate hikes will continue to be 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December.
US dollar exchange rate will remain strong in the short term
Zhong Zhengsheng Ping An Securities Chief economist
Whether from the perspective of the Fed's tightening pace or from the non-US economic pressure, the US dollar exchange rate will remain strong at present. Because the US economy is relatively resilient and the Federal Reserve is more determined to fight inflation, it is expected that the end point of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike may be further and more sustainable. The forward rate hike is expected to be a strong support for the US dollar exchange rate.
In addition, the Fed's aggressive tightening and the interest rate of US bonds breaks the previous high again, which may have a more severe negative impact on the non-US financial market, and the performance of non-US currencies is even more impacted.
The current inflation in the United States is still difficult to fall
Liang Zhonghua Haitong Securities Chief Macro Analyst
The current inflation in the United States is still difficult to fall. The Fed statement reiterated that inflation remains high, reflecting the supply and demand imbalances associated with the epidemic, higher energy prices and wider price pressures. It also emphasized that geopolitical risks and related events in Russia and Ukraine have additional upward pressure on inflation.
Considering factors such as high housing prices, tight labor markets, and geopolitical risks have not been eliminated, we expect U.S. inflation will still be difficult to fall. As of August, the median inflation that we followed and observed, and the 16% cut-off average inflation continued to hit a new high since the data; the US core elastic CPI rebounded year-on-year, and the core sticky CPI has continued to rise to a new high since 1991 year-on-year.
- More exciting views of this week -
[Industry Eye]
Reform of the coal industry is imperative, but fundamentals still have strong support and foundation
Mingming CITIC Securities FICC Chief Analyst
With the implementation of the dual-carbon policy, the growth rate of coal demand may slow down in the short term, but due to the tight supply and demand of international energy, the demand for coal is still guaranteed. In the medium and long term, industry innovation will lead to a decline in the demand for coal as a power generation link, but the utilization space in other areas is expected to be broadened. my country's oil and gas imports account for a relatively high proportion, and imports face uncertainty for a long time. Therefore, the status of traditional coal as my country's energy ballast will not change in the medium term. Domestic power generation is still dominated by thermal power, and the demand for thermal power is increasing, among which coal-fired power generation accounts for a high proportion, so coal has very strong demand support.
[Market Points]
There are still opportunities for traditional energy
Li Qilin Director and chief economist of Hongta Securities Research Institute
Although the overall performance of the market fluctuates, traditional energy has gone through an independent market.The logic behind this independent market is that the supply of new energy power is relatively not that stable. At least before the large-scale application and maturity of energy storage technology , the power supply of new energy is still easily affected by the weather. For example, this year, the high temperature in the south has decreased water and water and electricity have been impacted, and many photovoltaic equipment cannot withstand the high temperature, affecting the power generation efficiency. So in the future, we will find that the two most certain opportunities this year are the energy storage of new energy, because to carry out new energy transformation, energy storage must make breakthroughs; the other is the stability of traditional energy, which are valued by the market.
[Overseas Observation]
The United States may have been in the last 1 to 2 quarters since the recession
Chen Xing Zhongtai Securities chief macro analyst
first, the housing market index will fall sharply 16 months before the recession, which was already met in August last year. Second, the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond interest rates will lead the recession by 14 months, and it has appeared in April this year. Third, the initial unemployment benefits rose sharply year-on-year and the unemployment expectations index fell rapidly, leading the recession by 9 months and 6 months respectively, and are both satisfied at present. is fourth, the turning point of economic leading indicator leads the recession period for about 6 months, and has reached its peak at the end of the first quarter. is fifth, PMI new order index fell below boom and bust line in June, usually leading the recession for 6 months. is sixth. In the first five months of the recession, the stock index growth rate hit a peak and fell sharply, which is currently satisfied. is seventh, with the credit spread significantly widening and the consumer confidence of falling sharply, leading the recession by 4 months respectively, and both have triggered recession conditions. Finally, the synchronization indicator showed signs of recession. The decline in actual consumption expenditure of people has expanded in the year, while the actual total manufacturing and trade sales of has recorded negative values year-on-year for five consecutive months. It is preliminary to judge that the United States has been in the last 1 to 2 quarters since the recession. To accurately judge the recession, we still need to observe lagging indicators such as employment, industrial output value and actual income.
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