After half a year,
Central Bank once again took out this foreign exchange liquidity management tool .
On the evening of December 9, 2021, the central bank announced that
from December 15, 2021 to adjust the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio !
Forex reserve ratio has increased from the current 7% to 9%.
Don’t worry, let’s start from the beginning.
In the era of globalization, companies not only do business in the country, but also do business with foreigners .
Do business with foreigners, and companies earn foreign exchange from abroad,
, so how should these foreign exchange be used?
But in the past, foreign exchange was not something you could save by yourself,
Because the compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale system was implemented at that time, , enterprises and individuals must sell excess foreign exchange to the designated bank of .
Then, the designated bank must sell foreign exchange higher than the national foreign exchange management position in the interbank market .
and central bank is the biggest buyer in the interbank market.
However, in 2007, the forced foreign exchange settlement and sale system of was abolished.
That is to say, now enterprises and individuals can choose to exchange foreign exchange for RMB on , or they can choose to store foreign exchange in the bank, and retain forex.
. For banks receiving foreign exchange,
can also choose to retain for foreign exchange.
Bank has foreign exchange in its hands, of course it will not be locked in the safe.
Bank will lend these foreign currencies to to earn interest.
This behavior of banks is called foreign exchange loan .
refers to the bank issuing loan to enterprises in foreign currency . Of course, the review and use of foreign exchange loans is specifically required for , so we won’t go into details.
If the bank lends out all foreign exchange deposits , what if the depositor comes to withdraw it? Therefore, in order to control risks, the central bank will not let the bank lend out all the foreign exchange deposits it absorbs. The central bank stipulates that banks must hand over a certain proportion of foreign exchange deposits to the central bank for custody. The part of the foreign exchange deposits handed over to the central bank are called foreign exchange deposit reserve .
Foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio formula is as follows—
General deposit reserve is interest-free in the central bank, but the foreign exchange deposit reserve deposited by the bank in the central bank, there is no interest-free .
This time, the central bank announced that it would increase the foreign exchange reserve ratio by 2%, which means that banks should submit or more to the central bank 20 billion .
This is because some time ago,
has a trend of accelerating appreciation of due to many domestic and foreign factors.
At this time, two situations will occur:
situation 1
Once everyone predicts that RMB will appreciate in the future,
Everyone will choose to replace the foreign exchange at hand with more valuable RMB.
Everyone goes to exchange for RMB. The "doubled value" of RMB will cause pressure to further appreciate .
And as the liquidity of RMB in the market continues to increase after foreign exchange settlement, it will have a negative impact on the monetary policy of the central bank to control RMB credit.
situation 2
Under the expectation of RMB appreciation, many companies will also increase foreign exchange loans .
We explain the reason through a simple scenario.
Now the enterprise borrows 1 million yuan of foreign exchange from the bank.
Assuming that according to the current exchange rate , 1 million yuan of foreign exchange is equivalent to 7 million yuan.
When you need to repay the loan, assume that the RMB really appreciates - 1 million yuan of foreign exchange is only equivalent to 6 million yuan,
At this time, the loan cost for the enterprise to repay the foreign exchange arrears will be reduced.
Of course, actual operation will be more complicated than this. But no matter what, in the case of appreciation of the RMB, enterprises tend to adopt foreign exchange loans to .
With the increase in foreign exchange loans and the expansion of loan scale, the supply of foreign currency will increase, which will also lead to the continued appreciation of the RMB.
Based on this situation, in order to cope with the appreciation of the RMB,
either increases 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's 's '
This measure can achieve the following target :
/1/
can recycle the foreign exchange liquidity of the banking system, reduce the bank's foreign exchange settlement to the central bank , and thus lead to the passive release of of the RMB .
/2/
can allow banks to keep more part of foreign exchange funds for remittance.
This can reduce the issuance of foreign exchange loans from banks and . Enterprises obtaining foreign exchange loans are relatively reduced, which can play a certain role in curbing the excessive appreciation of the RMB.
In short, by increasing the reserve requirement for foreign exchange deposits,
can play a role in stabilizing RMB exchange rate , and
also highlights the central bank's determination to regulate .
Finally,
Let’s summarize the main content:
OK,
That’s all today.
Welcome to follow us, we have a three-fold life, making knowledge simpler!
Adjust the deposit reserve ratio belongs to the relatively fierce monetary policy tool , so it has the title of " giant axe ", and
Central banks of all countries will be more cautious in their use.
Remember,
Don’t bet on the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, will lose if you bet for a long time.
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