National Bureau of Statistics will release September price data at 9:30 on October 14.
Regarding the growth rate of CPI in September, institutions predict that pig prices and vegetable prices will continue to rise in September, which will support the year-on-year rebound of CPI in September; in terms of PPI, many institutions believe that the strong US dollar and the global recession expectation will continue to impact the price of commodity , and oil, gas and chemical prices fell in September, which may lower the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in September.
CPI will break the "3"
CPI, in terms of terms, many institutions predict that pig prices and vegetable prices will continue to rise in September, which will support the year-on-year rebound of CPI in September; prices of non-food consumer goods such as fuel for transportation may continue to fall with PPI year-on-year, and hedges the upward effect of food prices in .
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's consumer price (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year in August.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
For the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in September, the predicted values of the Macro Research Department of Industrial Research, CICC Macro, Zhejiang Securities Li Chao's macro team were 2.8%, 2.9% and 2.9% respectively.
In terms of food consumer goods prices, Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told Pengpai News that the average monthly average pork wholesale price has been rising recently, recording 30.87 yuan/kg in September, and again after 16 months. Correspondingly, the average pork wholesale price in September increased by 54.94% year-on-year, up 18.93 percentage points from the previous value, which played a strong supporting role for the September CPI year-on-year.
Zhejiang Securities Li Chao's macro team said that due to the high expectations for the tight supply and demand consistency in the fourth quarter, coupled with the arrival of the peak demand season, farmers' pressure on the pen and gain weight and secondary fattening are increasing, resulting in the supply and demand gap further amplification at this stage and pig prices continue to rise. In order to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the National Development and Reform Commission predicts that it will release 200,000 tons of frozen meat in the central reserve nationwide and various places in September, reaching the highest level of monthly release, which has alleviated the supply tension to a certain extent. At the same time, strengthening the regulation of countercapacity cycles and other policies will also play a role in stabilizing pig prices.
CICC Macro also stated that the pig cycle continues to rise, and demand for "double festivals" and the start of school pushes up meat prices and vegetable prices, coupled with the decline in the base last year, it may marginally increase the CPI by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year.
vegetable prices, the year-on-year increase in wholesale prices of key vegetables in the Ministry of Agriculture increased from 3.6% in August to 15.3%.
Industrial Research Macro Research Department stated that the superimposed temperature drop in Mid-Autumn Festival has further increased the demand for related foods. Although the cooling in late September improved the transportation of vegetables and vegetable prices fell to a certain extent, vegetable prices still recorded a large increase of 9.5% over the previous month.
Li Chao's macro team said that the price of fresh vegetables in September rose and fell back to . Due to high temperature and drought weather, vegetable prices continued to rise since the second week of August in early September, with an increase significantly exceeding the seasonal level. Since the middle of the month, the reduction in crop yields caused by extreme weather in summer has been effectively alleviated, the supply of agricultural products has continued to recover, and vegetable prices have fallen rapidly.
Looking forward, Li Chao's macro team said that before the National Day, major supermarkets and agricultural wholesale markets are actively preparing stocks, and autumn dishes and seasonal fruits are on the market one after another, and vegetable prices still have room for further correction in the future.
In terms of non-food consumer goods prices, Zheng Houcheng said that in the context of the continued decline in international oil prices in September and the National Development and Reform Commission lowering the price of refined oil, coupled with the slightly higher base in the same period in 2021, it is expected that the fuel CPI for transportation vehicles will decline year-on-year in September, which will hedge the year-on-year rise of pork CPI. Against the backdrop of the unabated pressure on the rebound of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it is expected that the core CPI in September will not rise significantly year-on-year in the same month, and the probability of the CPI in September breaking through the "3" year-on-year in the same month is relatively low.
CICC Macro said that although the epidemic still recurred in September, the Delta epidemic last year lowered the base, and service prices may be marginally restored year-on-year. At the same time, it is expected that the prices of non-food consumer goods may continue to decline with the PPI year-on-year.
According to Wande data, the average forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in September by 13 institutions is 3%, 0.5 percentage points higher than in August, with a forecast range of 2.6% to 3.7%; all 13 institutions predict the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in September.
PPI may continue to decline year-on-year
PPI, many institutions believe that the strong US dollar and the global recession expectation continue to impact commodity prices, which may lower the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in September; among them, oil and gas and chemical prices fell in September, and the international natural gas price fell at a high level, but European natural gas supply still faces great risks.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's industrial producer ex-factory price (PPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in August.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
For the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in September, the predicted values of the Macro Research Department of Industrial Research, CICC Macro, and Li Chao's macro teams of Zhejiang Securities were 0.4%, 1% and 0.7% respectively.
Zheng Houcheng said that the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials rebounded in September, but they were still in the historical low range. From the perspective of baseline, the marginal upward range in September 2021 is greater than the marginal upward range in August, and from the perspective of tail factor , the year-on-year tail factor of PPI in September 2022 was 1.27%, and the marginal downward range in September was greater than in August, showing an accelerated downward trend. At the same time, judging from the new price increase, although the prices of rebar , iron ore and coal closed positive in September, international oil prices and international copper prices fell sharply in September, suppressing the September PPI year-on-year.
CICC Macro also stated that although domestic resumption of work and tight supply have pushed up coal and building materials prices, the slowdown in overseas demand has dragged down oil and gas and nonferrous metals prices. In addition, the base has risen, PPI may continue to decline year-on-year.
Specifically, oil and gas and chemical prices fell, overseas central bank hikes hikes squeezing demand, Russia's sea freight reduction to EU is basically replaced by India and Turkey . In September, the average price of Brent oil fell from US$98/barrel in August to US$91/barrel. International natural gas prices fell at a high level, but after the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2, Europe's natural gas supply still faces great risks.
CICC Macro also stated that non-ferrous metals domestic and foreign demand differentiates, overseas demand slows down, but the domestic epidemic eases and infrastructure construction has rushed to work, demand has improved; physical infrastructure volume is accelerated, and the guarantee of delivery of buildings is promoted, ferrous metals first fall and then rise, and building materials prices rebound.
Li Chao's macro team also said that global central banks simultaneously raised interest rates sharply, the situation of conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still unclear, and the US dollar continues to be strong, the market's concerns about the global economic recession have further intensified, and commodity prices continue to fall. At the same time, China's economy is in a state of weak recovery, and weak real estate investment drags down the demand for industrial products during the peak season, and domestic pricing varieties such as steel and cement remain stable.
According to Wande data, the average forecast of the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in September by 16 institutions is 1.1%, lower than 1.2 percentage points in August, with a forecast range of 0.5% to 2.5%; of which 15 institutions predict a year-on-year increase in PPI in September.
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