cost-side support, egg prices have been rising continuously, and the main prices have approached near this year's high! The energy and chemical system continued to decline, fuel fell by nearly 4%, and polyolefin collectively fell by more than 2%. Analysis points out that the fuel oil market structure maintains a differentiation pattern of "low sulfur is stronger than high sulfur", and in the short term, there is no sign of reversal.
National Day holiday gap has been filled, and the commodity index maintains range fluctuations. Judging from the trend this week, it is still relatively high that the probability of a rebound to the lower edge of the range is relatively high; if inflation continues, a sharp rate hike in may cause commodity to fall,
rebar : The short trend continues. It is recommended to rebound based on 3800 for short defense for short , with support below 3500.
Glycol : The short trend continues, it is recommended to rebound based on 4150 for short defense and short selling, support: 3900.
Coke: The short trend continues, it is recommended to rebound based on 2800 for short defense and short selling, support: 2400.
Coking coal: During the adjustment stage, it is expected to further pull back down. It is recommended to continue shorting based on 2200 for short defense after the rebound, and support 2050 below.
methanol: The short trend continues. It is recommended to continue short after the rebound by relying on 2800 for short defense, support: 2600.
sodium ash : High-level fluctuation trend, there is an expectation of a short turn again. It is recommended to rely on the high point 2550 for short defense to follow up and short selling. The support below is: 2400
urea: In the early stage of the high-level decline, it is expected to weaken further in the future. It is recommended to rely on 2500 for short defense to follow up and short selling. The support below is: 2300
PP: Daily short trend. It is recommended to rely on 7900 for short defense to short selling. The support below is: 7500
US September CPI prospect: Will it continue to scare the market?
After the stronger-than-expected employment and stronger-than-expected PPI report both hit US stock hard, the market will eventually usher in the US CPI report in September. In this regard, JPMorgan Chase has drawn a framework chart:
CPI is higher than: 8.3%+, S&P fell 5%+
CPI is: 8.1–8.3%, S&P fell 1.5-2%. The bigger concern is that the bond market is repricing, increasing the possibility of a 75bp rate hike in December.
CPI is: 7.9–8.0%, S&P rebounded
CPI below: 7.9%, S&P rose 2-3%+, and calls for Fed to slow down.
This CPI needs to pay more attention to the core inflation level, although core inflation will slow to 0.4% in September. However, due to the base relationship, core inflation will approach the year-on-year high of 6.5%. As can be seen from the table below, more than 50% of forecasters believe that core inflation in September may hit or even break through the year's highs.
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