Just now, the U.S. CPI data for September was released. The U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year, estimated at 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, estimated at 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%; the U.S. core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year, expected at 6.5%, and the previous value was 6.3%.
As you can see, the US CPI data in September fell month-on-month and August, but it still exceeded market expectations. The most important thing is that the core CPI rose month-on-month and exceeded market expectations, setting a new high. Everyone should still remember when the United States announced its August CPI on September 13. As the CPI data in August exceeded expectations, the index soared, and non-US currencies depreciated sharply, and global stock markets fell sharply for one month.
A shares closed today, news said that British officials were trying to reverse British Prime Minister Tras' tax cut plan. The pound and euro once appreciated significantly against the US dollar, and the US dollar index plunged sharply. However, after the release of US inflation data in September, the US dollar index jumped directly, soaring from 112 to above 113, and is currently approaching 114.
Look at the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bonds, which is also rising at a high rate, and is currently approaching 4%.
As the US CPI data in September exceeded expectations, the swap market expects the probability of hiking interest rates in November 75BP rises to 100%, the US dollar index strengthens significantly, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciates significantly, depreciating below 7.23. At the same time, Brent crude oil futures, gold, etc. all fell sharply.
stock market also has a direct impact. European stock markets were originally rising, but after the data came out, the whole line turned green. As of press time, the UK Fuji 100 index fell by 1.59%, the German DAX index fell by 1.21%, and the French CAC index fell by 1.72%. The United States has not opened yet, but the U.S. stock Dow futures fell by 1.54%, the Nasdaq futures fell by 2.83%, and the FTSE China A50 futures also plunged straight, currently falling by more than 1%.
However, don’t panic too much, because the worst is not worse than before the holiday. The 75BP rate hike in November is already within the market expectations. Even if the US CPI data in September exceeded expectations, it will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise more interest rates in in November. Moreover, US inflation is indeed falling, and the core CPI rebounds mainly because of the relatively lag in service items such as rent due to interest rate hikes.
Finally, there is good news that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States for the first time last week was 228,000, estimated to be 225,000, and the previous value was 219,000, which shows that the strength of the US job market has eased.
As of press time, neither the US dollar index, US bond yield, nor the offshore RMB exchange rate did not break through the high before the holiday, which means that this is just a correction of market expectations, and the market panic level is not as good as before the holiday. For A-shares, what is more important is internal factors, and the policy expectations of the weekend conference are the key. If the US stock market does not collapse very hard tonight, the impact should be the opening.
risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers need to think independently of
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