On the evening of October 13, Beijing time, data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, estimated to be 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%;

Reporter of the Economic Business: Wen Qiao Reporter of the Economic Business Business: Gao Han

On the evening of October 13, Beijing time, Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, estimated at 8.1%, and the previous value was 8.3%; the U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, estimated at 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.1%.

After excluding the volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI in September rose 6.6% year-on-year, not only higher than the market expectations of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%, but also hit a new high since August 1982 again; the core CPI rose 0.6% month-on-month, 0.4% higher than the market expectations of 0.4%, and remained the same as the previous value. Given the volatility of food and energy prices, the core CPI is considered a more reliable barometer of potential inflation.

After the release of higher-than-expected inflation data, the 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeded 4%. US stock opened sharply lower. As of press time, S&P 500 fell 2.20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% or 531.62 points, and the Nasdaq fell 3.05% or 316.92 points.

Image source: Yingwei Financial Information

Specifically, food and rental prices are still rising significantly, and owners' equivalent rents rose by 0.8% month-on-month in September, the largest single-month increase since June 1990. Housing costs are the largest component of the service industry, accounting for about one-third of the overall CPI index, and have risen by 0.7% month-on-month for the second consecutive month; food costs have risen by 0.8% month-on-month for the second consecutive month, up 11.2% from a year ago.

Some indexes achieved a month-on-month decline in September, with the used car and truck indexes falling sharply by 1.1% in September after falling 0.1% in August. The clothing index fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the communication index fell by 0.1% month-on-month. However, even though the energy index fell 2.1% month-on-month, the year-on-year increase still reached 19.8%, of which the price of fuel oil rose by 58.1% year-on-year.

According to CNBC, another report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on the same day showed that rising costs mean more bad news for workers. After inflation adjusted, the average hourly wage of American workers fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year.

In the early morning of October 13 local time, the minutes of the September FOMC released by the Federal Reserve showed that the Fed's primary goal is still to curb the continued high inflation, and in order to increase interest rates to a level that is restrictive to the US economy in the short term. However, some policy makers also pointed out that it will be appropriate to slow down the pace of rate hikes at some point in time when evaluating the impact of a series of policies on economic activity and inflation accumulation.

According to CNBC, since March this year, the Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark interest rate by a full 3 percentage points. The September CPI data released this time may consolidate the Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the fourth consecutive time at its next meeting held from November 1 to 2.

" Daily Economic News " reporter noticed that CME's "Feder Observation" tool shows that as of press time, the market has completely digested the Fed's expectation of a 75 basis point rate hike in November, with the probability of as high as 97%, and there is still a 3% chance of raising interest rates by 100 basis points.

Image source: CME

Cover image source: Daily Economic News Wenduo Photo (Data photo)

Daily Economic News

Daily Economic News